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Brock Beauchamp

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Everything posted by Brock Beauchamp

  1. Brock Beauchamp
    If you can get Hardy for... Let's say Kevin Correia and Josh Willingham, that will absolutely improve the SS position. But has the team actually improved at that point? Questionable, at best. Hardy is a better player than either but the loss of both probably offsets any gain from JJ.
  2. Brock Beauchamp
    Both of those guys have one foot out the door. They haven't been replaced because their MiLB replacements aren't ready yet. That's hardly a reason to stop improving everywhere else.
  3. Brock Beauchamp
    Neither is a trait that any player is capable of doing on a regular basis.
  4. Brock Beauchamp
    No third baseman is going to sign with the Twins in 2014. Not with a certain manchild named Sano in the minors. The catcher and centerfield ships have sailed. The only reasonable catcher on the market was Salty and he took a hometown discount in Miami. The only centerfielder that would sign with the Twins would be on a one year deal, which means that you're not getting a terribly good player. Free agents aren't stupid. They're not going to sign a 3 year deal with a team at a position where the team has a top five prospect. I don't see how replacing Florimon, a 27 year old who hasn't hit anywhere in almost a decade, with a proven MLB player is a "knee jerk reaction" but advocating a replacement in CF, a position where the Twins have both Hicks and Buxton, isn't. I'd argue the inverse. As Hicks matures, he will turn into a valuable defensive asset at an up-the-middle position and he has a career MiLB OPS of nearly .800. He's 24 years old. Then there's Buxton, who is just about as sure a thing as there is in the minor leagues.
  5. Brock Beauchamp
    Drew isn't going to be a little cheaper than Garza, he's going to come in under half the price.
  6. Brock Beauchamp
    Given that Ryan almost never trades pitching, I think that one is all on Smith. The only young pitcher I can recall Ryan trading during his tenure was Kyle Lohse, which isn't entirely unexpected considering the dude took a bat to his manager's door.
  7. Brock Beauchamp
    Given what Baltimore probably wants for one season of Hardy, I'd rather have Drew. If the Twins can't retain Hardy after 2014, they will have given up some kind of prospect for no good reason, as they're likely to miss the playoffs anyway. At least with Drew, you're only sacrificing a draft pick and you get him for at least two seasons, maybe three (but hopefully two).
  8. Brock Beauchamp
    Drew, if healthy, is worth anywhere between 1-2 wins more than Florimon. At about $6m per win, that's a decent return on free agency. You didn't mention a prospect in return for Hardy but I listed one... Berrios. While the pricetag for one year of Hardy might not be quite that high, it's probably where Baltimore would open negotiations. In any case, what you'd give up for Hardy is more likely to succeed than a second round draft pick. It takes talent to get talent. The draft, past the first ten picks, is basically a crapshoot. Florimon hasn't hit anywhere since he was a teenager in rookie ball. He is 27 years old. Expecting him to improve at this point is a bit like wishing upon a star. Florimon and Drew have the same weak/strong sides at the plate so a platoon makes no sense. Escobar, on the other hand... Given the Twins current roster, what other position can you find a better bang for buck than shortstop? C - Pinto - sink or swim, not going to add value here 1B - Mauer 2B - Dozier, backed up by Rosario in 2015 SS - Florimon 3B - Plouffe, backed up by Sano LF - Willingham CF - Scrub Player X, backed up by Hicks and later, Buxton RF - Arcia DH - Parmelee/Arcia/Willingham/Plouffe Looking at that lineup, there isn't much room for improvement that doesn't involve either trading a player to make room or blocking a young player coming through the system.
  9. Brock Beauchamp
    Pelfrey should be able to have moderate success in the pen. He has a pretty hard, flat fastball. His secondary stuff isn't exemplary. He's the type of guy that *should* thrive in a situation where he throws less innings, throws harder, and doesn't get exposed by facing the same batters 3-4 times a game.
  10. Brock Beauchamp
    Defense is only half of the equation and Drew is a fine defender in his own right. Who cares? I'm not the biggest Drew fan but Florimon is really, really bad with the bat. On a team that was really bad with the bat overall in 2013, Drew shores up a position where the Twins have no prospect of improving internally. The percentage of improvement per dollar spent doesn't matter a lick to me because without picking up someone from outside the org, the Twins will not find a suitable player at short. And good players cost money. That point is inconsequential whether the Twins make the playoffs or not. Stephen Drew had 21 postseason plate appearances in 2013. Also, speed is largely irrelevant in the case of Florimon because, as the old saying goes, "you can't steal first". So you don't want to give up a second rounder to sign Drew but you're willing to trade a prospect, a player more likely to contribute to the MLB team than some random dude drafted 37th overall next June? I'll give up the draft pick 100x over before I offer up someone like JO Berrios for JJ Hardy.
  11. Brock Beauchamp
    I wouldn't blink at a 2/$24m deal. I'd blink but still probably sign a 3/$30m deal. People say losing a second round pick makes Drew a gamble... I think the opposite. He's a better value because of that second round pick. Most teams in contention to sign Drew are risking a first round pick, not a second round pick. Take advantage of that and nab the guy while other teams (maybe rightfully so) balk at giving up a first rounder for Stephen Drew. A second round pick? Meh. Sure, having loads of draft picks are nice but the Twins are looking at losing a pick 40 slots deep while other teams looking to sign Drew are looking at losing a 11-30 slot pick. Most guys drafted 35-40 overall never amount to anything. Hell, most first rounders never amount to anything.
  12. Brock Beauchamp
    When people say Drew is a "platoon player", they're failing to acknowledge that he's the valuable side of the platoon. Platoons are not equal. The guy who mashes RHP (somewhere around 70% of a player's PAs) is much more valuable than the guy who mashes LHP (30% of PAs). Which is why guys like Danny Valencia are of marginal value at best while Stephen Drew is looking to command a $10m+ annual salary.
  13. Brock Beauchamp
    Eh, I think the fuss over Santana is due to the lack of decent SS prospects in the Twins organization, not any inherent talent in Santana himself. The guy hasn't OPSed over .739 in five years. He doesn't have good plate discipline. He doesn't hit for a high average. He doesn't have particularly good power. He's a prospect on the level of Brian Dozier pre-2011, which doesn't exactly inspire confidence. In other words, he's the type of guy that pleasantly surprises you if he breaks out. He's not the type of player you think about when building your MLB roster.
  14. Brock Beauchamp
    I vacillate a bit on Drew. I'm not sold on him coming out of Fenway (I have an irrational fear of anyone who hits in that park) but his spray chart indicates that he didn't make much use of the Monster so that's probably a non-issue. On the other hand, Pedro Florimon is not a Major League hitter. The Twins have zero above average shortstop prospects in the high minors. If there is one position they can fill via free agency and not have to worry about getting in the way of any youngsters, it's short.
  15. Brock Beauchamp
    Drew's OPS+ in 2013 was 111. I'm having a hard time figuring out how a couple dozen postseason ABs lowered that number by 15. Also, in 2013 Drew was worth a full two wins over Florimon according to fWAR. I understand being hesitant about him but he's a pretty massive upgrade over Florimon if healthy. The question is whether you trust him to stay healthy.
  16. Brock Beauchamp
    Who is your third outfielder if not Hicks?
  17. Brock Beauchamp
    That's the first I've ever heard of that trick. It's a fantastic idea. I'd love to see someone else give it a shot.
  18. Brock Beauchamp
    Or it's more likely that over 600 IP, the numbers wash out. It would seem pretty freakish that 10 full reliever seasons could sway much in one direction or the other.
  19. Brock Beauchamp
    Killed it. Absolutely perfect.
  20. Brock Beauchamp
    That's fair. I'm not really in love with Drew either so I won't be upset if they don't get him.
  21. Brock Beauchamp
    Not to mention that the Twins have plus prospects at nearly every position in the high minors... Except for Florimon's position. To me, it makes a lot more sense to gamble with free agency at a position where you have no minor league options for improvement and a pretty bad player on the MLB roster.
  22. Brock Beauchamp
    And my point is that Florimon is a problem when the team also has 3-4 other guys with an OPS of a typical 7-8-9 hitter. At some point, this team needs to start getting better at various positions around the diamond.
  23. Brock Beauchamp
    I agree that ERA is not the best statistic for a bullpen but given the 580 innings pitched by the Twins' bullpen, those things tend to equalize in time. If the bullpen is bad at allowing inherited runners to score, they're going to be bad at preventing runs at all over a nearly 600 inning sample size. While the NL/AL split isn't as dramatic for the bullpen, it still exists. After all, there were only four AL teams in front of the Twins while there were nine NL teams. In the past few years, here are the NL/AL team counts for the top 15 bullpen ERAs: 2013 - NL: 9, AL: 6 2012 - NL: 8, AL: 7 2011 - NL: 10, AL: 5 2010 - NL: 7, AL: 8 2009 - NL: 9, AL: 6 Even though the bullpen doesn't get to face the pitcher as often in the NL, they still get to face a lot of really bad pinch hitters. The NL doesn't stack up against the AL offensively no matter what inning you're in.
  24. Brock Beauchamp
    I'm going to voice some more concerns about these statistics: - MLB.com is showing the Twins as having the 14th best bullpen ERA. - Comparing NL teams to AL teams in pitching statistics only slants things against the AL team. When isolated to league, the Twins had the 5th best bullpen ERA. - The Twins bullpen pitched a full 118 innings more than the best bullpen ERA in the AL, the Royals. That's basically two full seasons of relievers the Twins had to account for that the Royals did not. Surprisingly, the Jays had the fourth best bullpen ERA, despite being right behind the Twins in bullpen innings (552 for Jays, 579 for Twins). Nonetheless, the 1, 2, and 3 spots in bullpen ERA went to teams whose starters allowed their pens to pitch 461, 491, and 475 innings (again, the Twins had to throw 579 innings).
  25. Brock Beauchamp
    Again, Dozier showed an ability to hit in the minors. Florimon has never shown a similar ability at any level over a full season.
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