Jump to content
Our free agent ranking is up to 100 names, and now you can filter by player position! Click here to check it out! ×
Twins Daily
  • Create Account

Brock Beauchamp

Site Manager
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    32,662

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    328

 Content Type 

Profiles

Minnesota Twins News, Rumors & Analysis

Minnesota Twins Videos

2026 Minnesota Twins Top Prospect Rankings

2022 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

Minnesota Twins Trade & Free Agent Rumors

Minnesota Twins Fan Guides & Resources

2023 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

The Minnesota Twins Players Project

2024 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

2025 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

2026 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

Forums

Blogs

Events

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Everything posted by Brock Beauchamp

  1. Brock Beauchamp
    Well said, Nick. I'm not a fan of watching Pelfrey pitch. In a word, I hate watching him pitch. It's not only the speed he moves between pitches... It's how many pitches he throws in six innings. Combine those two things and he's an irritating guy to watch. But overall, this is a good move to fill the back of the rotation. Is it possible the Twins could get similar results from Worley or Diamond? Sure, it's possible... but last year they took that approach and the rotation collapsed for the third consecutive season. This is a good, cheap signing that won't put dreams of pennants in any fan's head but it's the type of move that makes the team better over a 162 game season and doesn't lock them into big money and years for a guy like Garza. If the Twins need a Matt Garza next offseason, they can go get that guy... But the way this rotation might shake out this season, they might need an OF or SS more than another starting pitcher. Which is why I believe in incremental FA signings in the first place.
  2. Brock Beauchamp
    Except that you're ignoring how both Willingham and Arcia are butchers in the field. 120 OPS+ DHs aren't terribly hard to find. For a DH, that's not a terribly good stat line, either. Decent, but not overwhelming. The Twins could make more gains by finding a corner OF who won't embarrass himself with the bat but can play a good OF... A Parmelee/Plouffe platoon might be a better player than Corey Hart once you factor in defense gained by Parmelee/Plouffe and defense "lost" by Willingham moving to DH. Or the team could go outside the organization. My point is that Corey Hart just pollutes an already-full DH position and forces some really bad players to stand in the OF, letting fly balls drop left and right. You can't look at Hart's pretty good OPS+ and ignore that he's making your defense considerably worse by pushing Willingham back into the field.
  3. Brock Beauchamp
    Arcia *should* be better than mediocre at some point in his career but in 2014, there's a good chance he'll be mediocre. Arcia and Wilingham are the only guys who have the potential to be above average in the OF/DH slots in 2014.
  4. Brock Beauchamp
    I agree that the offense needs help... Which is why I think pursuing Drew is a good idea, provided he can be had on a three year deal. The problem with the Twins' offense right now is that they're loaded with DH/OF types with more on the way. There just aren't many positions where one of two things don't happen: 1. They load an already-full position with more warm bodies 2. They buy into a position that ends up blocking a prospect within 12-18 months IMO, SS is the one position that doesn't run into one of the above problems.
  5. Brock Beauchamp
    It doesn't make much sense to complain that the Twins are picking up too much mediocre pitching and then advocate the acquisition of a mediocre DH when the team is absolutely bursting at the seams with mediocre OF/DH types (Arcia, Willingham, Doumit, Plouffe, Parmelee, etc).
  6. Brock Beauchamp
    Pretty much this. Out of Diamond/Worley/Deduno, I think Worley has the best chance of sustained success, though it will be back of the rotation type work. Deduno might have a higher peak but the dude is 30 years old and hasn't stayed healthy. It's a mistake to rely on him for anything at this point.
  7. Brock Beauchamp
    I don't think so... What I think is more likely is that Ryan deals a bullpen arm. Swarzak, Burton, Fein, and Duensing all have value. Dishing off one of them and slotting in Worley/Diamond/Deduno makes more sense than trading a starter whose value is minimal.
  8. Brock Beauchamp
    A 10 game improvement may be on the low side but it would take a 20 game swing make a significant difference in attendance, much less making the playoffs, which would require a 25+ game swing. So... Basically, the Twins would have needed Zack Greinke, Mike Trout, and Miguel Cabrera. Not exactly a reasonable request.
  9. Brock Beauchamp
    Yes. It doesn't make sense to complain that Pedro Hernandez is getting starts in 2013 and then complain that the Twins have too many options in 2014. None of their 5/6/7 "options" are particularly good nor have they earned a full-time spot in the rotation. Let them battle in Spring Training, dump the worst of the three, and move on with the season.
  10. Brock Beauchamp
    Switch Worley and Deduno and I agree. I think Worley has a much better chance of succeeding over the course of a season than Deduno. Here's what I see happening: 1. Nolasco 2. Hughes 3. Pelfrey 4. Correia 5. Worley Bullpen: Diamond Question mark: Deduno, who may start the season on the DL. First guy that goes down will be replaced by either Deduno or Gibson.
  11. Brock Beauchamp
    Do you really see that happening in 2014, though? This season, it's going to be Worley, Deduno, and Diamond fighting for one spot in the rotation. At some point, a pitcher will fail or go down with injury and a second guy will get a shot, probably around the time Gibson is throwing his hat back into the mix. Next season, Correia is gone. The Twins will (theoretically) have two open rotation spots for Deduno, Worley, Diamond, Gibson, and Meyer. At least two of Deduno, Worley, and Diamond will be gone at that point through trade or ineffectiveness. I don't see it becoming a problem, really.
  12. Brock Beauchamp
    In a word, it's not. Fangraphs uses FIP, which attempts to remove fielding influences from a pitcher's WAR. It's a fine metric but is representative of what should have happened, not what actually happened. When it comes to the value of a pitcher's performance, I prefer to go with what actually happened. When it comes to projecting a pitcher's performance, I prefer to go with what should have happened. Past performance, I believe BB-Ref WAR is a better metric. Future prediction of performance, I believe FG WAR is a better metric.
  13. Brock Beauchamp
    Because Ryan has been hosed by bad trades so many times in the past?
  14. Brock Beauchamp
    Fair enough but I don't fault the Twins for missing on this catching market. The only guy who interested me in the slightest is Saltalamacchia and I don't like him in TF and I don't like him coming off a .370+ BABIP season. And he signed with his hometown team for a pretty good deal. Given the money it probably would have required to pry him away from the Marlins, no thanks. Suzuki is an acceptable one-year stopgap. Reevaluate the position next offseason.
  15. Brock Beauchamp
    Coming off TJS in record time, pitching horribly in the first half before putting together a mediocre 2-3 month stretch... Really, you don't think he'll be any better than he was last season?
  16. Brock Beauchamp
    Yeah, I think it's time to clean out some reliever "depth". The Twins simply have too many warm bodies, most of which have shown the talent to get MLB hitters out on a regular basis. Move at least one - maybe two - of them.
  17. Brock Beauchamp
    He sported a BABIP of .431 in September despite striking out 20 batters in 19 innings. He gave up only one home run. Walked too many batters, though (7 in 19 innings). Sometimes, luck just ain't on your side. Inversely, his July/August sported a BABIP around .250, which is unsustainably low.
  18. Brock Beauchamp
    Yep. Despite being absolutely awful for the first half of 2013, Pelfrey was just a touch below "replacement level" for the season (-0.3 BB-Ref WAR). People tend to throw around the phrase "replacement level" far too freely. A replacement level player is a player that is absolutely atrocious over a full season. Not bad, atrocious. Coming back from TJS, Mike Pelfrey was a replacement player. There's no reason to expect him to regress from that point while his second half suggests that he can pitch quite a bit better than that. Again, I find myself "defending" a signing I don't really care about. It's the type of "meh" move that nobody should really get too up or down about. The problem with last season is that Correia and Pelfrey were "meh" second and third signings... Except they were the first and second signings, which made the offseason a bad one for Twins fans. Well, this season Mike Pelfrey is the third signing. A guy signed to fill the back of a rotation and throw innings. This is the type of move the Twins *should* have made last season but didn't sign any quality arms in front of Pelfrey and Correia, making one of them the default "ace" (throws up in mouth a little). Last season, it pissed me off. Thanks to Nolasco and Hughes, this season I don't really care.
  19. Brock Beauchamp
    That's just not true at all. The guy had a pretty good three month stretch in 2013 after coming back from surgery. His upside isn't high but it's probably the same as Correia... And Correia, while not an above average pitcher by any means, is definitely better than replacement level.
  20. Brock Beauchamp
    Yep. Most guys aren't in the Majors at age 23, much less age 21. Only the best players are going to get significant playing time at that age while the age 26-28 seasons are rife with middling prospects who take time to mature or bomb out of MLB entirely.
  21. Brock Beauchamp
    I think that's very much up for debate. Look at Wil Myers and James Shields in 2013. I know you don't like WAR much but Shields was a ~4 win player while Myers was a 2.5 win player in less than two-thirds of a season. Whether you like WAR or not, Myers was a valuable player by almost any metric. I don't expect Sano to come up and dominate that quickly, most guys don't post Myers-esque rookie seasons. But it's not cut-and-dried, either. Sano has a chance to come up and be a valuable player almost immediately if he's healthy. Price has a huge advantage in being more valuable in 2014 but it's not impossible that both players stay healthy and have similar impacts for their respective teams.
  22. Brock Beauchamp
    Very true but didn't Sanchez go back to Detroit and give them one more chance to sign him after getting contract offers from other teams? From what I remember, he was quite happy in Detroit and gave them every chance to meet or beat any competing offers. Not the same situation as Mauer but it makes signing a guy like that an uphill battle. Also, Sanchez was a pretty good pitcher early in his career but there were few indications that he'd pitch out of his damned mind in 2013 and post his best season ever after moving to the AL and out of a pitcher-friendly NL ballpark. It's great for Detroit that they signed him and he pitched so well in 2013 but without hindsight to guide us, that contract looked questionable 12 months ago. Just as the Jackson deal probably won't end up as disastrous for the Cubs as it looked last season, the Sanchez deal probably won't look as rosy in three years as it does today. One great season is nice, particularly when you're a playoff team... But it's one season out of five. Still a lot of baseball to play before deciding the quality of that contract.
  23. Brock Beauchamp
    Correia was definitely better than Pelfrey. Deduno... Well, he didn't pitch much but when he did, he was better than Pelfrey. The question here shouldn't be Mike Pelfrey's 2013 stat line and whether it was good enough to stick in a rotation. It wasn't. The question here is whether Mike Pelfrey's 2014 will resemble the second half of 2013 or 2013 as a whole. The guy was coming back from TJS and after being horrible in the first three months of the season, he rebounded and put together a decent second half before tailing off in September (as guys who miss a full season are wont to do as they wear down). Can he repeat that over an entire season? Hard to say. This is a decent buy low signing. It's Nick Blackburn money on a guy who has the potential to be a solid #4/5 guy if he can repeat his second half. He's not old. His put up decent strikeout numbers, though nothing to get too excited about. On the other hand, I'd just as soon see Worley, Deduno, and Diamond compete for his spot in the rotation. The signing is pretty "meh" to me overall but I think it's a better signing than Arroyo at $30m+ and three years. While Mike Pelfrey is a risk, I think you can basically write off Arroyo's third season and $10m because he's going to be 40 years old and, in all likelihood, completely useless as a starter by that point.
  24. Brock Beauchamp
    On the other hand, Arroyo is bordering not only on a substantial decline phase for most pitchers, he's nearing the point where many pitchers completely implode and retire shortly thereafter. Is Arroyo different? Possibly, but unlikely. The better question is "who's the smaller risk?" And at this point, that's probably Mike Pelfrey. It's definitely Mike Pelfrey once you factor in money and years.
  25. Brock Beauchamp
    Yep, that's who I thought it would be as well. Joe don't run.
×
×
  • Create New...