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Brock Beauchamp

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Everything posted by Brock Beauchamp

  1. Brock Beauchamp
    I'm just quoting myself from another thread because making this quite-obvious argument doesn't warrant typing it again: Additionally, to combat the "the Orioles used him correctly in a platoon" argument, Valencia had an absurd .405 BABIP against lefties in 2013. Regression much? It doesn't take much to see Valencia's 2013 season (again, all 170 PAs of it) as the fluke it is and how unlikely it is that he'll repeat those numbers in any way, shape, or form. The smartest thing Duquette did in this deal is realize how flukish his season was and usher him out of town before April of 2014. And I definitely tip my cap to him for accomplishing that task. And also for giving me license to laugh at Dayton Moore for another offseason.
  2. Brock Beauchamp
    He's a Rochester Red Wing. Literally. He's the guy in the Red Wing costume.
  3. Brock Beauchamp
    The only thing this trade tells me is that Terry Ryan needs to call Dayton Moore and say "Hey, ol' buddy! Let's make a deal!". Giving up anything of value for Danny Valencia, a guy who had all of ~170 PAs last season and succeeded (again) based on an unsustainibly high BABIP of .339, is almost comical. The only time Valencia has had success in this league is when his BABIP is well outside the norm. Which basically means that Danny Valencia is good when Danny Valencia is lucky. Even the bulk of his homers just cleared the fence according PitchFX. He had a 1.079 OPS at Camden Yards and a .741 OPS on the road. The only thing Duquette did right here was recognize that he had a player on the roster whose "performance" (all 170 PAs of it) was luck-driven, called someone less intelligent than him, and hood-winked that GM into giving him something for Valencia before that player plummeted back to earth. Was it smart for Duquette to take a flyer on Valencia? Eh, I guess so, if only because the results worked out for him. But let's not confuse genius with dumb luck. There is no way Duquette could have predicted that Valencia would thrive in a very SSS by getting lucky. Because that can be said about any player.
  4. Brock Beauchamp
    Now is not the time to trade Max Kepler. He's coming off an injury-plagued season and underperformed his previous numbers. Maybe he's destined to be a bust but considering how often this board complains that JR sells low on prospects, people sure seem to encourage selling low on various guys.
  5. Brock Beauchamp
    A fair point to make but they're definitely useless after only 90 games.
  6. Brock Beauchamp
    WHHHAAAAAAAAAT? Wow, I didn't see this one coming at all. Nice move by Ryan. Gilmartin is nothing special but that's not a bad haul for offloading Doumit after a pretty bad season.
  7. Brock Beauchamp
    Parmelee has less than 90 MLB games played in the OF. Defensive metrics are basically useless at that point.
  8. Brock Beauchamp
    Six man rotations are uncommon; six man rotations out of ST are completely overkill. Teams get a lot of days off in April and guys are fresh out of ST. I think conventional wisdom is that you don't want to give your starters as many as six days off between starts.
  9. Brock Beauchamp
    Okay, tone it down a bit everyone. There's no need to start getting snippy over this.
  10. Brock Beauchamp
    Post of the day.
  11. Brock Beauchamp
    I think the Twins end Spring Training by washing their hands of Diamond and putting him on waivers. Just a gut feeling I have. I don't see Swarzak getting another shot at starting with this roster. Too many guys in front of him, too much success in the bulllpen. But these are just gut feelings. There are at least a dozen ways this could play out by the end of March.
  12. Brock Beauchamp
    Correia certainly has value. Worley, Deduno, and Diamond do not. This isn't an issue, IMO. Out of ST, it wouldn't surprise me at all to see either Deduno or Diamond on waivers. There simply isn't room for them unless Ryan trades a reliever or two. That leaves Deduno/Diamond and Worley. I think Worley will perform well enough to win the fifth spot in the rotation. The other will take the sixth rotation spot when someone goes down. If everybody is performing at that point (unlikely), then I'd expect to see Correia moved in June or July. If the team is out of contention, another reliever could go with him. As could Willingham, Doumit, Plouffe, and a host of other players. I think we'll see a quasi-fire sale at some point in 2014, though the return won't be particularly good on any of the guys the Twins are offering. And at that point, none of this will be a problem.
  13. Brock Beauchamp
    Which is why it's pretty hard for me to get worked up about Hendriks being whooshed off the 40 man roster. It was *slightly* perplexing, especially with some of the other 40 man roster pitchers and Hendriks still having an option but at the end of the day, I just don't give a damn. If anything, I could queue up another five names who can follow him right out the door. At some point, the team needs to cut bait with question marks and make the team a better one going forward by opening playing time for actual prospects, guys with a future. I can't get too worked up about middling former prospects and outright failures possibly leaving the team and finding marginal success somewhere else.
  14. Brock Beauchamp
    Aren't there rumblings that Deduno may not be healthy for Spring Training? That's not a guy you roll the dice on based on a half season of work, IMO. If he comes out of ST firing, find room for him. Don't count on him, though.
  15. Brock Beauchamp
    Almost impossible to say. It's just as likely that Gibson throws a 4.00 ERA season as it is he throws a 5.50 ERA season. It's just as likely that Deduno continues his 2013 dominance as it is that his shoulder explodes in March. And I think that's the driving force behind the Pelfrey acquisition. It's not that Ryan doesn't realize other holes in the roster exist, it's that pitching has burned the team so badly in the past three seasons and he's not going to let it happen again. Inversely, the offense doesn't have any fewer question marks. Does 2014 Willingham look like 2012 or 2013 Willingham? Will Arcia progress? Does 2014 Doumit look like 2012 or 2013 Doumit? What the hell, Trevor Plouffe? What's wrong with you? Chris Parmelee. Paging Chris Parmelee. Please come to the front desk and notify them whether you're a MLB hitter or not. Aaron Hicks. LOL. He can't be worse. And those are just the OFers and DH-types (once Sano is up and replaces Plouffe). What we see on this roster right now is exactly why I thought Chris Parmelee and Trevor Plouffe should have received every AB possible in 2013. The team should have already committed to a decision on those two players by now but we're facing another year of seeing "if they can hack it".
  16. Brock Beauchamp
    And if Pelfrey falters as a starter, he's still a valuable bullpen arm. He should be able to ratchet that fastball into the mid-90s out of the bullpen. As opposed to Nick Blackburn, who was basically useless if not starting games.
  17. Brock Beauchamp
    Not to mention that adjusting for league ERA without the overall context of MLB runs per game is a mistake. In Pelfrey's career, this is what has happened to average runs scored per game: 2013: 4.17 2012: 4.32 2011: 4.28 2010: 4.38 2009: 4.61 2008: 4.65 2007: 4.80 Just tacking on a half run to his NL ERA totals is a mistake. Overall, teams are scoring fewer runs than they were in Pelfrey's NL seasons, which basically offsets the supposed "AL shift".
  18. Brock Beauchamp
    I think we can expect to see an improvement from Hughes. Pelfrey, maybe not so much. Overall, the net gain should still be significant, even if it's only 50-60 innings. That's basically one season of the worst reliever in the bullpen.
  19. Brock Beauchamp
    Not to mention that they'll pitch more innings at that improved ERA and the bullpen should thrive, pitching 100-150 less innings and using their best arms in key spots more often instead of scattering innings to the entire pen. Overall, the gain could be really significant. League average starters have a lot of value over the course of a season. They probably won't push the Twins to the postseason but the Twins aren't looking at the postseason in 2014. They're looking at 85 wins if everything goes well, 70-80 wins the likely landing spot.
  20. Brock Beauchamp
    Fair enough. That's the reason why I think the Twins should be in on Stephen Drew. He's not a perfect solution but if he can be had for three years (not four, ugh), he makes the team better at a position where he will have no competition in the near future.
  21. Brock Beauchamp
    Doumit shouldn't prevent the Twins from signing a DH... But Willingham should. If the Twins can get a stopgap CF (which it appears they tried to do with Davis), good for them. It's a smart move that helps the team on both sides of the ball. What the Twins don't need is more position-less bats.
  22. Brock Beauchamp
    Again, you said ceiling. Mike Pelfrey has pitched two above average seasons (under a 3.75 ERA in the NL). His ceiling is somewhere around a 4.00 ERA in the AL and Target Field. Ceiling is not the same as career average. If you want to suggest that it's likely Pelfrey will pitch to a 4.3-4.6 ERA, I completely agree. But that's not his ceiling, as evidenced by a couple of seasons where he's been much better than that. The Twins have him under contract for his age 30-31 seasons. He's not an old man.
  23. Brock Beauchamp
    They have four options for one rotation spot. At least two of those guys will see significant starts over the course of a season. Without Pelfrey, at least three of those guys will see significant innings in 2014. Do you really want to bank on 75% of Deduno (who may be injured), Worley, Diamond, and Gibson performing as well or better than Pelfrey? I don't. Signing Pelfrey should not stop them from acquiring a stopgap offensive bat. It should also be noted that free agents are not stupid... They're not going to want to sign with the Twins knowing that their position is in jeopardy right off the bat. Given the Twins current roster, any free agent signing is going to question whether they're going to get playing time if they stumble out of the gate. It's likely that some players don't want to come here because of that reason, such as Rajai Davis, who reportedly turned down an offer from the Twins.
  24. Brock Beauchamp
    You said ceiling. His ceiling is higher than his career average.
  25. Brock Beauchamp
    Your floor is about right. Your ceiling is way too low. Pelfrey's ceiling is probably around a 4.00 ERA for a season, as evidenced by his peak July/August months where he posted an ERA of ~3.5 (fueled by an unsustainably low BABIP so I'm tacking a half run back onto those numbers) while posting a career high K/9 (don't like using K/9 but FG is being a pain this morning). A little better than league average. One year post-TJ is probably a boon for him, not something to be used to lower his ceiling. Pelfrey lives on a flat fastball. Guys coming off TJS often throw harder than ever for a season or two... An extra 1-2mph on Pelfrey's flat fastball will only help him, not hurt. The downside of TJS is that guys often struggle with their "feel" pitches, mostly breaking balls. Well, Pelfrey doesn't rely on feel pitches. Still not good but easily worth $5.5m a season, just like Kevin Correia in 2013. Given Pelfrey's makeup, he's also a strong candidate for the bullpen, something everyone seems to be ignoring. He's basically LaTroy Hawkins.
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