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Brock Beauchamp

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Everything posted by Brock Beauchamp

  1. Brock Beauchamp
    If this guy's name wasn't Jason Kubel, this thread would read very differently. 1. People wouldn't be concerned about him stinking up the roster for 150 games. 2. People wouldn't be overly optimistic about him getting back on track and OPSing at .800. 3. People would see this as the kind of organizational depth move teams make every offseason. It's a decent move on a player that has a chance to rebound and be a role player. Nothing to get too excited about, nothing worth complaining about.
  2. Brock Beauchamp
    Upon further thinking, Miggy and Verlander aren't the best comparisons. They're probably about equal and WAR supports that thinking. What kills Miggy is his defense. But compare Mike Trout to Verlander and I firmly believe that Trout is more valuable over 162 games. Verlander dominates once every five games but Trout helps the team win 150+ times a season.
  3. Brock Beauchamp
    Not sure if this is rhetorical or not but... Miguel Cabrera.
  4. Brock Beauchamp
    That's true. At two years, I'd take Arroyo every time. I guess it boils down to a value judgment over that third year.
  5. Brock Beauchamp
    My thoughts exactly. I don't like Pelfrey but if you look at his second half, it's likely he'll provide Arroyo-esque performance at less years and half the yearly salary.
  6. Brock Beauchamp
    You don't like the players or you don't like the list? Santana is the head-scratcher to me. I wouldn't put him that high.
  7. Brock Beauchamp
    Not to mention that when it comes to pure "wins", a position player is more valuable than a pitcher. A 66 win team needs better players and a lot of them. Position players that supply 2-4 wins are easier to find than their pitching equivalent and they generally cost less. It's also more common to see superstar position players that will deliver as many 7-8 wins in a season. Elite pitching is rarer, which makes it harder to find and more expensive to purchase. But when you're looking for wins, which the Twins are, your best bet is to do that through position players, not by giving up the farm for elite pitching. When you're a playoff team, that elite pitching can be the difference between an ALDS sweep and the World Series but the Twins aren't a playoff team... Nothing close to a playoff team. Right now, they need reliable players that deliver wins. That means better position players and "good enough" pitching, maybe with upside to be better than that.
  8. Brock Beauchamp
    Definitely something to keep in mind but inversely, those examples can be used why you shouldn't trade prospects. You need as many as you can get because some will ultimately fail or underperform expectations.
  9. Brock Beauchamp
    Fantastic article, John. We have all preconceptions of what the front office believes and what motivates their actions. In reality, those preconceptions have as much, if not more, to do with our own mental state than they have to do with the actual front office. It's something every fan should keep in mind before they unmercilessly blast the front office or rationalize every action taken by it.
  10. Brock Beauchamp
    I haven't followed Diaz closely enough to know the latest rumors on money required to get him. But in theory, it's a good idea for the Twins to pursue a player of that ilk.
  11. Brock Beauchamp
    Yes, because I don't believe the Twins need to sign every FA possible for the 2014 season. My point is that if you're going to spend the money on Hamels, there are far more efficient ways of going about it if you're a 66 win team.
  12. Brock Beauchamp
    Again, an ace does very little good on a 61 pythagorean win team. The Twins need multiple above average players, not a single good player. To be frank, I don't give a rat's ass about an ace pitcher in 2014. The Twins need a bunch of 2-4 WAR players to even reach .500. One 5 WAR player isn't going to do squat, especially one that consumes Joe Mauer-esque money for five seasons. Garza, Drew, and Sano are worth more to a 61 win pythag team than one Cole Hamels. This isn't a difficult concept. The Twins need 30 wins to even sniff the playoffs. Cole Hamels gives them 5 wins. Still 25 short by my records. Whereas Sano, Drew, and Garza should have a floor of 5 wins between them with a ceiling of 10+ wins.
  13. Brock Beauchamp
    Heh, no. Just complacency. The Twins have already surpassed my expectations for this offseason.
  14. Brock Beauchamp
    Dude, Cole Hamels is going to be paid $22.5 million a year for five years. For the $110m+ he is owed through 2018, you can get Garza for four years, Drew for three years, and pay most of Sano's six years of team control. Simple math tells me that those three players will be worth far more wins in 2014-2018 than Cole Hamels.
  15. Brock Beauchamp
    My guy costs $500k a year. Your guy costs $20m a year. Which guy makes it easier to buy above average complementary players? For equal money, you get: Cole Hamels - 5 seasons For equal money, I get: Miguel Sano - 6 seasons Matt Garza - 4 seasons Stephen Drew - 3 seasons Come on.
  16. Brock Beauchamp
    Pedro? I'll assume that's an auto-correct thing and move on. Again, Sano is 20 years old at AA. It's not the least bit surprising that he struggled a bit in AA, if you can call an OPS over .900 struggling at all. And of course he didn't hit as well against the best pitching. You can say that about Miguel Cabrera. Again. 20 years old.
  17. Brock Beauchamp
    Sano didn't struggle in AA. He posted a .915 OPS as a 20 year old. That's domination, just not at the level he posted earlier in the minors. Again, he's 20 years old. What good is an ace to a 66 win team, a team whose pythag record was a miserable 61 games? The Twins need a 30 game swing just to reach the playoffs. What the Twins need are good players and lots of 'em. Garza and Sano are worth more wins per season than Cole Hamels, not to mention that you can get Garza for ~$40m less than what is owed Hamels. $40m goes a long way toward picking up another above average player like Drew. It's an illogical move no matter how you look at it. If the Twins were an 85 win team and needed an ace, that's a move you consider. But right now they need wins, more wins, and then a couple more wins to even touch the playoffs. And for that, you need above average players at multiple positions, not one very good player at a single position. Some people are looking at this completely in reverse, starstruck by the notion of an "ace pitcher" without really thinking about it. The Twins need a bunch of pretty good players, not a single really good player. Only when they have a handful of 2-4 WAR players will they even be competitive. One 5 WAR player isn't going to help them any more than Joe Mauer has helped them the past three years. Teams reach the playoffs by having a handful of Michael Cuddyers on the roster, not by having a single Zack Greinke.
  18. Brock Beauchamp
    Nope. You're looking at several years of a 3-4 win player for 40 times the price of Sano's pre-arb seasons. If you want Cole Hamels, go sign Matt Garza. Not quite as good but you get to keep Miguel Sano. Overall, that's a huge net gain over Hamels.
  19. Brock Beauchamp
    That was put to bed years ago. They carbon dated his right arm and found he contained 3% pterodactyl DNA.
  20. Brock Beauchamp
    I'm fine with Maholm. I'm fine with Pelfrey. I'm fine with Arroyo, though I don't like three years. I'm fine with Garza, though I don't like the timing and price. At this point, I can't get too worked up about anything. If JR makes another move, great. If he doesn't make another move, that's okay, too.
  21. Brock Beauchamp
    Eh, I don't buy it. Terry Ryan hasn't been hosed on a trade in a very long time. The closest he has come lately is the Worley-Mays/Revere trade but there's still a lot of time left before the jury rules on that deal. What's more likely is that Friedman and Ryan could never agree on a trade because they both want too much in return. Terry Ryan is a very smart baseball man who doesn't give up talent without a lot in return. I don't know why everyone thinks Friedman would take him to the cleaners.
  22. Brock Beauchamp
    It's not a requirement, just a nice thing to have. Some teams are stacked with lefties and it's nice to have the option of going different-handed against some of them during a series.
  23. Brock Beauchamp
    That means those pitchers are extremely "not smart" and should leave such matters to their financial advisors and/or agents. Money doesn't devalue. Getting paid $10m now is not going be worth less than $10m in five years. Sure, inflation won't adjust the monetary value of a contract much (especially lately) but it will value the contract a least a little more on average. Not to mention that investing $10m now will net you a hell of a lot more money than investing that $10m in five years. With the average investment return being what it is, that $10m will be worth a lot more with five years of investment behind it. It's flat-out stupid for a player to not recognize this and eagerly agree to a front-loaded contract. If my job offered to pay me 150% of my yearly salary for three years and half that in the following three years, I'd be ecstatic because I'd be able to heavily invest 50% of my salary and reap some pretty awesome financial rewards for it. Everybody wins with front-loaded contracts. Sure, the ballclub technically pays a little more upfront in non-inflated wages but it also allows them to structure a contract so that they can compete better in coming years, which will more than compensate for the small fraction of non-inflated money through increased attendance and media revenue.
  24. Brock Beauchamp
    Not a bad idea. The Twins could definitely use a lefty in the rotation.
  25. Brock Beauchamp
    I wouldn't. No freakin' way would I make that trade. Look at Wil Myers and James Shields right now. In just more than half a season, Myers was a 2.5 win player. Extrapolate that to a full season and he's a 3-4 win player. James Shields was a 4 win player last season.
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