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Brock Beauchamp

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Everything posted by Brock Beauchamp

  1. Brock Beauchamp
    Play nine games that way and see who wins more consistently. Come on, you're being intentionally difficult. This is baseball. Sometimes games are won with a swinging bunt. That doesn't mean you train your players to rely on swinging bunts. The pitcher who can put the ball where he wants it (command) is going to beat the player who can throw it in the strike zone (control) more often than not.
  2. Brock Beauchamp
    The two are sometimes used interchangeably but yeah, that's about right.
  3. Brock Beauchamp
    I'd also like to see Sano at third but I have no idea if he can play there every day so I can't say for certain that a Plouffe trade is the right decision. If the Twins trust Sano at third in 2016, absolutely trade Trevor.
  4. Brock Beauchamp
    Anecdotal defensive plays and GIDP are not valid reasons to get rid of a player. Plouffe has been a decent regular this season, just as he was a solid regular the past two seasons. He hasn't fallen off a cliff and is still a decent player... Just like he has been for the past ~1500 PAs.
  5. Brock Beauchamp
    I believe I'm one of the few on the board who is fine with keeping Plouffe for awhile and letting him walk. I'm also fine with trading him if the Twins feel Sano can handle third every day. So... No extension.
  6. Brock Beauchamp
    As a footnote, I would have been completely okay with paying that much for Jepsen (or another similar reliever) if Ryan pulled off that trade on July 1st, not 31st. My problem was more that it was the only deadline move and it happened just before the deadline. The Twins needed bullpen help from day one.
  7. Brock Beauchamp
    Every once in awhile a bad ad will sneak in like that. Unfortunately, you just have to wait it out until the ad is pulled. I've had it happen maybe 3-4 times in the past year.
  8. Brock Beauchamp
    I still believe Ryan overpaid a bit but I wasn't in full-blown outrage mode like so many of the users on this board. Jepsen was a pretty good reliever who, according to reports, hadn't been fully healthy for the first couple of months of the season. Give up Hu and I'm all on board with the deal but I question the addition of Tapia.
  9. Brock Beauchamp
    Vargas looks like a rejuvenated player (SSS, I know). As much as it hurts to say, I think Miguel needs to sit a few games and rest.
  10. Brock Beauchamp
    Oh, Plouffe definitely plays a role but I think we'd see more shuffling of Plouffe to first, Mauer to DH, and Sano to third if not for the injury. Maybe twice a week or so. I'm sure the Twins want to get a good look at Sano in the field before the end of the season so they have a better idea how to proceed this offseason.
  11. Brock Beauchamp
    I think we'd see a lot more of Sano at third if not for the hamstring injury.
  12. Brock Beauchamp
    Rotations like the Twins' 2011-2014 rotations are an example of the weakness of FIP/xFIP. If a pitcher is really bad, it tends to break those stats because FIP/xFIP assume a pitcher has a relative level of competence and isn't getting drilled every time contact is made with the ball. This isn't an indictment of FIP/xFIP, though... It's an indictment of those rotations. They were terrible and most of the rotation underperformed their advanced metrics by a healthy margin. Also, I'm sure terrible OF defense helped balloon those old ERAs while the more advanced metrics try to weed out that statistical noise. In short, FIP/xFIP are not a good indication of the relative quality of the 2014 vs. 2015 rotations. The 2015 rotation is considerably better, both because the Twins have better pitchers and because they have better defenders behind those pitchers. Phil Hughes and Kyle Gibson had a lower FIP than ERA in 2014 while everybody else had a higher ERA than FIP (anywhere between a few percentage points to 2+ runs). Advanced metrics can't seem to accurately track pitchers who are so terrible that "luck percentages" don't seem to apply because they don't give up an expected level of medium/hard hit contact. Long story short, 85mph pitching machines seem to "break" advanced metrics and the 2014 Twins had the majority of their starts come from 85mph pitching machines.
  13. Brock Beauchamp
    Berrios and it's not particularly close. They're close to the same age but Berrios dominated AAA hitters while Gonsalves scuffled a bit against A+ hitters. Berrios has near-elite control while Gonsalves walked 4.3 per 9. That's not a knock on Gonsalves, though... He's a fine prospect. Berrios, on the other hand, has vaulted himself into elite prospect territory with his 2015 performance. Gonsalves may be on a more traditional prospect track... Hit a few bumps along the way, recover, and then promote. Berrios is on a fast track program where he doesn't miss a beat.
  14. Brock Beauchamp
    We welcome links here. Never hesitate to post a link to another source... The only thing we ask you not to do is copy and paste entire articles. If you find something you'd like to share, be sure to give an option for people to visit the source material and give that author some traffic (revenue).
  15. Brock Beauchamp
    Be sure to check out field level at Miller Park on an 80+ degree day or night. That'll change your opinion of the park. It's a glass-encased sweat house. But on a normal day/night, eh, I guess it's okay. I don't care for retractable roof stadiums in general.
  16. Brock Beauchamp
    PETCO is lovely. It always surprises me it doesn't rank higher on peoples' lists. It's a great park in a great part of San Diego (just a few blocks from Gaslamp).
  17. Brock Beauchamp
    Eh, I don't know about that. Young had a lot of talent but some pretty glaring flaws as well. The Twins shouldn't have overlooked his defensive ability and they should have spotted a potential issue with his plate discipline, or complete lack thereof. Simply put, the Rays were working with tools completely unknown to the Twins at the time and they hoodwinked them into taking a flawed player who put together pretty pedestrian numbers over his first 1 1/2 seasons (around a 90 OPS+, though he was just 22-ish). I could forgive a straight up Garza/Young trade but tossing in Bartlett (~6.5 WAR in the same playing time as Young) made it a terrible, horrible, awful trade. The Rays once again hoodwinked Smith & Co. into taking Harris, a middle infielder who couldn't play a middle infield position. Whenever I think of that trade, I can only imagine how many times Friedman had to mute the line to tell his stat guys that if they kept laughing so loudly, they were going to put the entire deal at risk.
  18. Brock Beauchamp
    I feel the same way. Meyer is worth a call just to see what happens. If you don't give him much of a leash, it won't really hurt the team while the upside is there to make hitters look foolish swinging at his stuff.
  19. Brock Beauchamp
    There is no reason not to call him up. If he pitches well, great... But he's going to start with mop up innings anyway so it doesn't really matter if he's bad.
  20. Brock Beauchamp
    The process in the Garza trade was broken and I hated the trade when it happened. Young was a talented but undisciplined hitter and was exposed at the MLB level, doubly so when you factor in he was a horrible defender. Garza was a good young starter on a team who was in the process of losing their Cy Young head of the rotation. Add in the Bartlett/Harris part of the deal and it was face-palm worthy. And swapping young MLB players is a lot different than trading an arb-eligible guy for a prospect in A ball. There's obviously a lot more risk and unknowns in the A-ball player. In an MLB-for-MLB player swap, you shouldn't see one team receiving 20+ WAR while the other receives negative WAR from the traded players. That's not bad luck or good process, bad results... That's just a horrible deal with flawed thinking behind it. The Twins received roughly -1 WAR from Young and it wasn't because of a wild variable such as injury. It was because Delmon Young wasn't a very good baseball player. Also, Bartlett was a 3 WAR player his final year in Minnesota. That trade still pisses me off.
  21. Brock Beauchamp
    There's no reference to an innings limit in that article; Bollinger only mentions Duffey's 2015 innings versus his 2014 innings. Trevor May made 28 starts in 2014 and the Twins never shut him down (his innings were lower thanks to a bunch of short starts and a brief injury). Like Duffey is today, he was 24 years old. Tyler Duffey has made 28 starts this season. If they shut Duffey down, I'll be furious... But I think some are letting the tail wag the dog here. Until the Twins actually make a comment about Duffey's innings, I'll assume he has a rotation spot through the end of the season. Seeing Bollinger make a reference to innings without any kind of quote from the Twins means absolutely nothing; he's merely writing an article and feeding the readership information the Twins may or may not care about.
  22. Brock Beauchamp
    Oh, I think it's pretty clear he was worse than Ryan. I don't see how that's debatable. Smith did some things pretty well; the draft and international signings. He also picked up a few nice FAs that helped the 2010 team enormously. But his MLB transactions with opposing GMs were varying shades of disastrous. They weren't just kinda bad, they were "OMG WHAT ARE YOU DOING" bad. Santana for Gomez + junk Garza/Bartlett for Young + junk Capps for Ramos Hardy for Hoey Getting Hardy for Gomez was a nice move but any goodwill he earned from that was washed away with the Hoey deal. He was put into a tough spot with Hunter and Santana but that still doesn't mean he gets a pass on not making a good deal with the Mets. And Nishioka... Well, we all know the results of that blunder. Ryan's conservative nature is frustrating but at least it means he never pulls off any one of those trades, all of which hurt the team both in the short term and the long term. Smith took risks, which is sometimes the right thing to do... but his risks were often ill-conceived and they really hurt the team going forward. Fun fact: Trevor May's 2014-2015 seasons are worth more WAR than the return on Santana, Young, Capps, and Hoey combined.* Everyone else was under replacement value with the Twins, which negated the wins brought by Gomez. *this was very quick eyeball math, feel free to dispute this claim... either way, it's close.
  23. Brock Beauchamp
    It was more a statement about Robinson's underrated play and Hunter's abysmal second half than anything else.
  24. Brock Beauchamp
    Kepler has a bat but he's a step down from Rosario, Hicks, and Buxton in the field. A good corner OF but not a natural MLB CF.
  25. Brock Beauchamp
    Perkins appears to be on the decline... And I'm okay with that. A "closer" only needs to be decent, not amazing. A flex 7/8th inning guy who is amazing will win more ball games. Eddie Guardado was a good closer. Why? Because he could routinely get three outs while giving up less than two runs. The best guy in the bullpen should be the guy who comes into a game in the seventh inning with one out and two men on base. As long as Perkins can get guys out at an acceptable clip, he can remain in the "closer" role.
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