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Brock Beauchamp

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Everything posted by Brock Beauchamp

  1. Brock Beauchamp
    So, some of you may know this but I'm just about the biggest Stars Wars knob on the planet. I've seen the original trilogy over 200 times and know the movies from front to back. I'm such a fan that I've even suffered through the prequels 50+ times, even though I admit they're pretty terrible (though Ep III has its moments). So, who's seeing this movie and when? I have tickets for the first showing available at 7pm tonight. I was originally a bit disappointed that Lucas sold to Disney because I wanted Star Wars to go quietly into the night... But I had one caveat to that opinion: if Disney hired either Abrams or Whedon to direct Episode VII, I was all on board. Obviously, that happened. I couldn't be more excited about how they've managed the hype for this movie. Eliminating Luke from all promotional materials sets the audience up for an Empire-style bombshell when they sit down in the theatre (I still bitterly remember Lucas putting Maul's dual-bladed lightsaber in the Ep I trailer, which was the coolest - maybe only cool - thing in the movie).
  2. Brock Beauchamp
    Yeah, this. I hate the idea of Sano in the outfield - really, I hate it - but that's some pretty weak reasoning why he can't play RF. There are plenty of reasons not to play a 23 year old slugger at a position he's never played without suggesting that he might get tired.
  3. Brock Beauchamp
    I think it has haunted them for a few years already. This might help them get back into fringe contender range but they haven't had a winning record since 2012. I don't expect this offseason to vault them past the Royals, Twins, or Indians. They could catch one or two of those teams but probably not all three. Had they committed to being a terrible team back in 2013 or 2014, they'd be well on the path back to relevance. Sale and Abreu would fetch a massive return in trade. What the White Sox have done for the past 7-8 years is exactly the strategy I don't want my team to take ... Occasionally compete but never reach 90 wins and legitimate competitiveness. They haven't made the postseason since 2008 when they squeaked past the Twins in game 163. IMO, the White Sox are proof that a steady hand and long-term vision is a hell of a lot better strategy than winning every offseason and losing every summer.
  4. Brock Beauchamp
    That was one point of many used to illustrate how Hughes' FIP isn't relevant. And you don't think it's a bit problematic that a guy puts up a career high HR rate in TF after pitching in Yankee Stadium his entire career? FIP is a useful stat but it's not useful in comparing Phil Hughes' 2013 and 2015 seasons. The guy is either in decline or was injured. I think it's the latter but that doesn't validate a FIP comparison to his career norms.
  5. Brock Beauchamp
    FIP is a terrible stat to use for Hughes. His peripherals have radically changed. He went from a 2.5 BB/9 to a sub-1.0 BB/9. Previous to 2015, he was an 18-19 K% guy. He dropped to 14.4% in 2015, which coincided with a drop in fastball velo. He went from an extreme hitters park to the relative comfort of Target Field (not to mention switching divisions) and enjoyed extreme HR luck in 2014 and extreme not-luck in 2015. The numbers look the same but it's white noise. How Hughes got there is so radically different the number is basically meaningless. Hughes could be regressing or he could have been injured but the fact that his 2015 FIP was similar to his 2013 FIP means little.
  6. Brock Beauchamp
    Eh, I still doubt I'd explore the option. It's possible - maybe even likely - Nolasco can be effective in the pen and Milone was nasty against lefties last season. I'd relegate those two to the bullpen before I considered Hughes, provided Phil looked healthy.
  7. Brock Beauchamp
    It seems to me Mike is confusing the Libertarian stance of "government shouldn't be involved in marriage because it's a system of tax loopholes and nonsense" with the neo-con stance of "government shouldn't be involved in marriage whenever it conflicts with the opinions of the religious right". One opinion is about personal freedom and the government not financially incentivizing personal choice while the other is... Well, almost the exact opposite.
  8. Brock Beauchamp
    You are really grasping at straws here, Mike. In essence, you're arguing that Voldemort is a political mole. Given Voldemort's ego and history, that's an absurd statement. Voldemort is out for one guy: himself. He refuses to support another GOP candidate because he can't envision a world where he supports anyone other than himself. Here are the facts of the situation: 1. Voldemort is running as a Republican. 2. Far more conservatives support Voldemort than liberals.
  9. Brock Beauchamp
    One season where he struggled with dead arm and was pulled from the rotation for a month does not mean he's in decline. Is it a possibility? Sure... But I think it's unlikely. What I think is more likely is that Hughes had a nagging injury all season and never pitched fully healthy. Those numbers aren't "trending the wrong way". They're an enormous difference from previous years and can't be explained away with "well, he's 29 years old". A 5+% drop in K rate? No, that's not a typical decline phase for a 29 year old pitcher. That's "something is wrong with the guy" territory. Even considering removing Hughes from the rotation at this point in time is the type of knee-jerk reaction that should get any general manager or on-field manager fired on the spot for gross incompetence. If Phil shows up to spring training and is throwing 90 mph in late March, then you reevaluate the situation. Not now. Not today. It shouldn't even be on the table.
  10. Brock Beauchamp
    As of today, this would be my rotation: Hughes - Lock, Written in Pen Gibson - Lock, Written in Pen Santana - Lock, Written in Pen May - Lightly Penciled Duffey - Lightly Penciled Milone and Nolasco would enter camp looking in from the outside. If one or more of those guys are injured/out of shape/whatever in mid-February, then you alter plans as necessary. This rotation needs upside. Those guys bring a mix of upside and consistency. If the first three guys pitch to something resembling career norms and the latter two guys pitch as they did in 2015 - or something close to it - that's a solid rotation. It won't win any awards but it's the kind of rotation that can keep a team in contention through a season (never mind the possible addition of Berrios).
  11. Brock Beauchamp
    Hughes' 2015 was more of an aberration than 2014, which was also an outlier in the other direction but Phil's 2015 was way off the norm for his career. Career K%: 19.3% 2015 K%: 14.4% Career Swinging Strike: 8.2% 2015 Swinging Strike: 5.2% Career Contact Rate: 83.7% 2015 Contact Rate: 89.2% Career fastball velo: 92.1 mph 2015 fastball velo: 90.7 mph Hughes is only entering his age 30 season. He should be in the rotation because he has upside. Maybe not year in, year out 2014 upside but the guy can pitch and pitch well.
  12. Brock Beauchamp
    I don't think it's the right time to push the chips into the middle of the table. This team, while winning 83 games last season, was extremely lucky in reaching that mark. But that doesn't mean there isn't a huge swath of middle ground between "standing pat" and "pushing the chips into the middle of the table" that shouldn't be explored. Overall, I'm somewhat happy with this offseason. Park was a good get. Murphy is underwhelming but has some upside. To me, the success/failure of this offseason comes down to the bullpen. If Ryan doesn't pick up at least one above average arm, it'll be tough to swallow. At this point in the team's rebuild cycle, I don't need the team to go all in... But I do expect them to fill holes with competent players. Ryan has done that, to an extent... But more needs to be done.
  13. Brock Beauchamp
    I understand why they're moving in this direction but I don't have to like it. May should be starting over either Nolasco or Milone. Though I disagree that May should be starting over the likes of Hughes or Santana (particularly Hughes). While Trevor has upside, he hasn't shown the ability to come anywhere near Hughes' 2014 season, either in metrics or innings pitched. Hughes gets the nod before May, as do Gibson and Santana due to consistency, albeit mediocre consistency. After that, it should be a free-for-all for the two remaining spots in the rotation.
  14. Brock Beauchamp
    A flyer on Lee would be an interesting bullpen "fix". I never considered approaching it from that direction.
  15. Brock Beauchamp
    Well, Illitch realizes he can't take it with him. It would have been kinda fun to see ol' Carl take the same approach but the guy made his fortune by being a cut throat. No reason we should have expected that to change. I'm hoping the Pohlad children take a different approach when the time is right. I have no reason to think they will but it'd be a pleasant surprise.
  16. Brock Beauchamp
    Yep, exactly. It's why the GOP dominates Congress - the House in particular - and why I don't see them winning the White House until they come back to the middle.
  17. Brock Beauchamp
    There's nothing wrong with it but after seeing most of the good relievers go off the market, it's hard not to be a *little* concerned about what is happening with the bullpen this offseason. There's still time to fix it but the options are dwindling.
  18. Brock Beauchamp
    *uncontrolled vomiting* Objectively, it's not a bad move... But come on, they need a real LHRP and another real RHRP would be nice.
  19. Brock Beauchamp
    Okay, next post that continues this Ryan discussion we've had 1000 times will lock the thread.
  20. Brock Beauchamp
    An interesting choice for an MiLB invite but come on, I want to see a real reliever acquisition already...
  21. Brock Beauchamp
    He has secondary pitches?
  22. Brock Beauchamp
    I'm sorry I ever participated in this thread. This thread is not about Terry Ryan's past performance. If you wish to discuss Ryan's past performance or things unrelated to Zack Jones, feel free to do that in one of the forty-five bajillion threads on the subject. I'm growing weary of every thread getting derailed on this forum. It makes this place an unpleasant site to visit. Next person take take the thread off the rails, inject a pet argument, or start bickering with another poster gets a warning.
  23. Brock Beauchamp
    This is blatantly untrue and you know it. The farm system was not "stocked". It was middling at best and most experts ranked it in the bottom half of baseball, not the top. Going into 2012, BP had them ranked #22. And how many times does it need to be pointed out that a typical rebuild takes 3-5 years? Pirates, Royals, Cubs, Astros... How many examples do you need?
  24. Brock Beauchamp
    I think the Twins were banking a bit too hard on Josmil Pinto figuring out his defensive issues. Obviously, that... didn't work out as planned. The Twins were rebuilding. Yeah, it would have been nice to pick up a decent catcher but when the team is winning less than 70 games a season, I'm not sure it matters. Though I question the decision to not pick up more at last year's deadline when it was obvious the Twins were a fringe contender. Picking up Jepsen was nice but a month late. Picking up Cotts was nice but two months late. Failing to address catcher just added to the deadline misery.
  25. Brock Beauchamp
    Dayton Moore's record as GM (only counting full seasons) is 689-769, good for a stellar .473 winning percentage. Ryan took over a bad Twins team. He made mistakes. It's ancient history. What Ryan has done is take a terrible, broken 2011 squad and returned it to respectability in his fourth season back at the helm. As I've pointed out more times than I care to count, that's a pretty typical pace for a rebuilding squad; on par with the Astros, close to the Cubs, and a lot faster than either the Royals or the Pirates. Using Ryan's 1990s record as proof of anything is a disingenuous argument, one made to build a narrative that fits your viewpoint, not an attempt at honest discussion. Now it's time for Ryan to build a postseason contender. Will he do that? I don't know but arguing about what he did or did not do in the 90s is a pointless discussion.
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