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Brock Beauchamp

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Everything posted by Brock Beauchamp

  1. Brock Beauchamp
    The Twins are really good at putting pressure on Brewer pitching. Unfortunately, it seems to stop there.
  2. Brock Beauchamp
    Why does it matter? Season over. Pathetic.
  3. Brock Beauchamp
    Actually, that slogan really works for me. Champagne tastes like bubbly ass water. Miller High Life tastes like bubbly ass water. Scotch is good. So is bourbon. That is all.
  4. Brock Beauchamp
    Fair enough, but are the show runners trying to peak ratings or tell a good story? Those two things don't have to be at odds with one another. Seeing a major character fall to Negan's bat should be the climax of a long-running story thread, not a ratings gimmick. A creator owes a fulfillment of that emotional buildup to their audience; those people sat through hours of watching to get to this point and there's an in-built obligation to reward that investment in some capacity. There's a reason so many people are angry about it; a character death should have impact in the here and now of experiencing the show, not eight months from now after it has been leaked and half the audience knows what happened (but weren't rewarded with the emotional impact of actually seeing it happen in real time). People watch/read/listen to fictional entertainment to be engaged and emotionally invest themselves in a world. This cliffhanger kneecaps the audience and deprives them of that investment. They have a right to be angry about it.
  5. Brock Beauchamp
    Closed primaries work much better if there are more than two options, I can agree with that. But in the current system where I flat-out refuse to align myself with a party, I get no say in the process, even though I plan on voting for a specific party in this election.
  6. Brock Beauchamp
    I think this nation is too big and populous to do a day-and-date nationwide nomination but it needs to be streamlined. Our current system is crap and more broken than not. I'd like to see two or three nomination days, divided by region and population. Give the candidates 2-3 weeks to cover each region and then vote. Move on and repeat in the next region. Limit the entire process to no more than six weeks, preferably four. And get rid of caucuses and closed primaries. Let everyone who wants to vote, vote.
  7. Brock Beauchamp
    I'm not moving the goalposts, I'm saying there's a good chance it's not relevant to what is happening in the here and now.
  8. Brock Beauchamp
    Last season, Dozier had a .598 OPS through the first 14 games of the season. I simply don't understand why we're having this conversation again. Three years running, the same thing every April. We're not even at the 10% mark of the season. Guys start slow. It happens. What happens in the next 10% of the season will be telling but right now, one good game puts Dozier near his career mark and no one cares anymore.
  9. Brock Beauchamp
    Tone down the aggression. Enough "cherry-picking" and "playing by those rules" crap. Dozier struggled near the end of last season. There could literally be a dozen reasons why that happened and it's not out of the norm for Dozier to cool off a bit in the second half of a season. He had a .682 OPS in July of 2014, a .715 OPS in September of 2014, and a .678 OPS in September of 2013. He's naturally a streaky hitter who could wear down, get banged up, or just lose focus as the season winds down. I don't know and neither do you. The difference is that I'm not carrying over what happened 7-8 months ago and using that to prop up an argument based on 58 plate appearances. If Dozier posts a .750 OPS for the next 50 PAs, this argument is moot. And do you realize how ridiculous that is? 50 bad PAs, 50 good PAs. Combined, that's still not even one full month of the baseball season.
  10. Brock Beauchamp
    When one three hit game and a homer won't catapult his OPS back near his career average. If his OPS is still hovering around .600 when the end of May rolls around, then it's a problem. Right now, it's an oddity; something worth watching but not enough information to draw a conclusion.
  11. Brock Beauchamp
    His problems last season were troublesome but I'm not convinced they're linked to his struggles this season. It's possible... But 58 PAs isn't going to sway me much.
  12. Brock Beauchamp
    My point with the half-months was to illustrate that he didn't slowly decline month by month and week by week. If Dozier started July with a .780 OPS, ended it with a .720, ended August with a .680... Etc... Your narrative that he's in decline makes sense. But that's not what happened. He's been up and down, it's merely that the last "down" was particularly ugly. Really, really ugly. And I think Dozier's various struggles are a mild problem... It's why I think Molitor should make him a 145 game a season guy, not a 155 game a season guy. Brian's a pretty small dude with a huge power swing. It certainly can't hurt him to get the occasional day off.
  13. Brock Beauchamp
    Yeah, I'm the one cherry-picking. You just said this a few posts ago: "2000 is being generous, it's closer to 1500 and 700 that are worrisome. 400 of those 700 being the most recent 400 at-bats of his career." And I directly rebutted the fact that Dozier has been "worrisome" for 400 PAs. He hasn't... He had a mediocre month, a below average month, and a truly awful month. You're building a narrative that Dozier was bad for well over half a season and that simply is not true. Nevermind that we had this identical argument before the 2014 season... and then again before the 2015 season... and now it's... 2016. Here we are again.
  14. Brock Beauchamp
    Well, your timeline doesn't make much sense when you dig into the numbers. July, 2015: .715 OPS, much better in the second half of the month than he was the first August, 2015: .662 OPS, slightly better in the second half of the month than he was the first Sept/Oct, 2015: .565 OPS, flat-out terrible So, in essence, Dozier had a decent July, a slightly below average August, and a truly horrible September... Which consisted of 137 PAs. Yeah, it was a bad time for Dozier to go ice-cold but you're stretching out half a season of mixed play into being half a season of really bad play, dragged into the gutter by a single bad month.
  15. Brock Beauchamp
    I can understand some concern but I disagree that we can carry over last year's numbers into this season. And I think you're overblowing Dozier's decline last season... He posted a .715 OPS in July (and was much better in the second half of the month than he was in the first). He was below average in August (.662, again slightly better in the second half of the month than he was the first) and horrific in September (.565). Those two months combined for 257 PAs. Last season, he could have been banged up or just flat-out tired. There are a dozen reasons why players struggle down the stretch of a 162 game season. And we're all of 58 PAs into this season. There isn't enough data to draw a conclusion. Like I said, if he's still struggling well into May or June, then it's a problem but right now, I think it's just an oddity. I've seen Dozier go to the warning track multiple times this season... If one of those balls turns into a homer and another a double, he's close enough to his career numbers that it's data noise and this thread doesn't exist at all. And given how none of his peripherals - outside of flyballs - has changed more than 2-3 percentage points, what's most likely is that Dozier is suffering a dry stretch that's half struggling, half luck. And time will tell whether that sorts itself out on its own.
  16. Brock Beauchamp
    My thinking is this: - Brian Dozier has had roughly 2,000 PAs of success against MLB pitching - If Brian Dozier was incapable of making adjustments, Brian Dozier would not have had 2,000 PAs of success against MLB pitching Are pitchers going after him differently? Maybe. Is it temporarily affecting his performance? Maybe. But it's not like pitchers and coaches are so dense that it requires nearly three full seasons of PAs to realize "hey, maybe this guy can't hit this pitch". It doesn't take a guy teeing off on an opposing pitcher 75 times for opponents to reevaluate a strategy and adjust their approach. If defeating Brian Dozier was so simple as changing what you throw to him, it would have happened 2+ seasons ago. So I'm not terribly worried until this decrease in production continues well into May or even June. Dozier has shown he can adjust, now it's just a matter of him adjusting yet again. I'm confident it will happen sooner rather than later.
  17. Brock Beauchamp
    I was thinking the same thing... It's Twins Daily's third annual "proclaim the painful and ugly decline of Brian Dozier" thread. Do it enough times and the thread will get it right... Keep it up and by 2022, this thread has a pretty solid chance of being correct at least once. I'm mildly... curious, maybe?... about Dozier's struggles over the second half of 2015 and early 2016 but I'm not worried about it yet... Let the guy get at least 100 PAs this season before making a snap judgment on his future as a baseball player.
  18. Brock Beauchamp
    There's no "probably" about it. Uggla was a butcher at second base.
  19. Brock Beauchamp
    Yeah, he's not what I expected at all. I expected more of a dead-pull swing-from-his-heels hitter who walked a lot in KBO because pitchers were terrified of him. That hasn't been the case. He has a pretty good eye, especially considering how he has only faced MLB pitching in games that matter ~50 times.
  20. Brock Beauchamp
    I don't think it will be that surprising if his strikeouts decline in time. What *has* surprised me is Park's relatively polished approach at the plate but now that I've seen him take his hacks, I think it's entirely possible he adjusts his approach to better suit a more advanced league. The guy could get away with a ton of strikeouts in Korea because he routinely teed off on the inferior pitching in that league... But MLB is a different animal. It wouldn't surprise me to see Park sacrifice a bit of power for more contact and a more disciplined approach to compensate facing the best pitching in the world.
  21. Brock Beauchamp
    What's wrong with Brian Dozier? Nothing, really... Probably a blip in his career. First number 2016, second number career: K%: 17.2% / 19.1% BB%: 10.3% / 9.2% Hard Hit %: 26.8% / 27.1% Pull %: 46.3% / 50.2% Infield Fly %: 9.1% / 16.1% Flyball %: 55.0% / 42.4% (the first real difference from his career number) BABIP: .231 / .268 (possibly linked to the flyball issue) So, Brian Dozier is close to the same player has has been in his career. Are shifts hurting him? Possibly. Are pitcher attacking him differently? Possibly. Are those things worth .040 batting average and .060 slugging? Probably not. Brian Dozier has some adjustments to make but he's also hitting into a bit of bad luck... Time will tell whether he makes those adjustments but any adjustments he makes should be the difference between a .700 OPS and a .770 OPS player, not the .600 OPS player he is right now.
  22. Brock Beauchamp
    Yep. The Twins aren't really built for that kind of play... And that's okay. They just can't continue to do things like waiting until their 11th team homerun to hit one with a man standing on base.
  23. Brock Beauchamp
    To the surprise of almost no one, Clinton is winning NY. I'm mildly surprised she's taking 60% of the vote but given how I figured on a 55/45 split, I guess that's not terribly surprising. Sanders' momentum screeches to a halt.
  24. Brock Beauchamp
    Yeah, I just don't have the time or patience to deal with another streaming system. I primarily use Apple TV but also own a Smart TV that I occasionally use for Amazon Prime video. There's really no excuse for Sling not to offer their platform on the Apple or Google platforms. Or Amazon Prime, for that matter... But I get that video service free with Prime shipping (my primary reason to buy it) so it doesn't bother me as much.
  25. Brock Beauchamp
    Joe has not struck out since April 9th. Welcome back, Joe.
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