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Brock Beauchamp

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Everything posted by Brock Beauchamp

  1. Brock Beauchamp
    I've only watched the first episode of Legion. I was a bit underwhelmed, actually. The setting was fantastic, liked all the actors, but the pacing of the first episode was sloooooooow. The hallway scene after the "incident" seemed to take an hour for no real reason. I think Hawley was trying to ramp up the intensity but it fell flat for me. Overall, lots of like about the show but I hope it evens out a bit going forward. The mind-bending scenes are fine (sometimes good) but in that first episode, it felt that if something required a minute, they took three to show it.
  2. Brock Beauchamp
    Yep and yep. Lots of pitchers succeed at 90mph. We have a pretty lengthy record that shows Hughes is not one of those pitchers. If Hughes could get to 92mph in the pen, he might be serviceable. As a 90mph starter, not so much.
  3. Brock Beauchamp
    Well, 90mph ain't terrible but it's not good enough, either... Here's to hoping Hughes is taking time to ramp up to full velocity. At 90mph, it's likely Hughes is virtually worthless as a starter and marginal as a reliever.
  4. Brock Beauchamp
    To be clear, I'd start the season with Polanco first, Mauer second, and Buxton ninth to ease any pressure he might feel. The Polanco/Buxton conversation is what I'd like to see in June but certainly not April.
  5. Brock Beauchamp
    To me, it boils down to OBP. If Polanco has the same OBP as Buxton (or higher), you put him in the leadoff spot. Buxton had a .090 slugging advantage in the minors. If the goal is to drive in runs, I think you put the slugging guy behind what will likely be an "OBP only" guy. And Jorge is fast enough to not clog the bases for Byron should they both get on base. But really, the concept is murky enough that I won't get too upset about it either way. As long as the Twins stack most/all of their slugging/OBP guys at the top of the lineup, the order isn't going to bother me too much. Whether Sano hits in front of Dozier or vice versa is pretty nit-picky to me... I only get upset when we see Dozier, the best slugger on the team, leading off games and hitting solo moonshots all season. Because that's... Well, it's just dumb.
  6. Brock Beauchamp
    I'd consider putting Buxton and Polanco at the top of the lineup because it's possible they're more effective hitters this season. OBP is great but it's not the only thing to consider at the top of the lineup. The more effective a hitter is overall, the more plate appearances they should receive over the course of a season. If Buxton has an acceptable OBP (but lower than Mauer) but is hitting doubles, triples, and homers at a pace greatly exceeding Joe's performance, then he gets the nod at the top of the lineup. I consider a lack of OBP a disqualifier to hit at the top of the lineup but I don't assemble lineups based solely on OBP. I'd rather lose .030 OBP with Buxton and gain .060 slugging in the process, hoping Byron will either drive in Polanco or get into scoring position for Sano. Then there's the baserunning component. I don't care about stolen bases that much, as the data is pretty wishy-washy on how effective they are at winning games. What's important to me is that Joe essentially needs to be on second to score a run and Joe no longer hits doubles. Buxton can easily score from second, sometimes from first, and has the ability to put himself into scoring position if need be (never mind that if he's hitting more doubles, is more likely to be there in the first place).
  7. Brock Beauchamp
    It might work that way, I simply don't have much faith in Mauer at this point. It's likely he'll still be a decent OBP guy but will he be better than Buxton and Polanco? It wouldn't surprise me if Polanco has one of the best OBP on the team this season. Buxton is more iffy, though. He needs to stop missing the ball to get that OBP where it needs to be. To start the season, I put Polanco in front of Mauer so Joe doesn't get in Jorge's way on the basepaths. If Buxton comes to life and posts an OBP .320 or higher, then it's likely I shuffle the lineup to include Jorge and Byron leading things off (in what order, I'm not sure, maybe Polanco is the best leadoff option no matter what). The more I think about it, the more I'm starting to think Polanco is the best leadoff option for the foreseeable future. He doesn't have Byron's speed but he's fast enough and has little to no power. If Polanco turns into Denard Span, he's a natural leadoff guy (and that's probably Polanco's ceiling as a hitter). Buxton has more power so maybe he's a better fit for the second spot in the lineup.
  8. Brock Beauchamp
    If Mauer has a .300 average, he can stay in the two or three slot. I don't think that will ever happen again, though. When I said "things unfold how I hope", I was reasonably predicting things somewhat likely to happen.
  9. Brock Beauchamp
    https://www.canada.ca/en.html
  10. Brock Beauchamp
    I'd flip Mauer and Polanco but yeah, after a bit more consideration I think Dozier should hit behind Sano. I don't want Mauer holding up Jorge on the basepaths so I'd put him before Joe. It's almost impossible for anyone to get in Sano's way so that's not an issue.
  11. Brock Beauchamp
    Who thought the division was going to be a tire fire last season? KC was coming off a WS victory and Cleveland had a talented young roster, particularly pitchers. The rest of the division was iffy but if 40% of the division is promising, it won't be a tire fire.
  12. Brock Beauchamp
    Yeah, they have growth potential outside of cars - and ultimately, I think batteries will be their bread and butter - but their valuation is still sky-high even if you include their other businesses. I think Tesla will be a slow grind even as they become profitable. At some point, their product needs to balance with their valuation.
  13. Brock Beauchamp
    On the other hand, I'm pretty down on Tesla. I love love love their business model but I got into the company at an inflated price, one that may be too high to ever climb out of (I'm up overall but not by a lot). If I could take back one investment of the past two years, it'd be Tesla. How much will you squeeze out of Tesla stock in the coming decade if their market valuation is already at something around 1/3rd the market valuation of General Motors? I'm sticking with Tesla because I view them as a 20 year stock but even that may be a mistake. It's going to take years and years for them to produce enough product to be worth what they're worth today, much less what they should be worth in five years.
  14. Brock Beauchamp
    If you're looking to stash money in a stock for at least the mid-term, I'd consider putting a bit of money in Square. I think they have the potential to break through in a pretty big way. Given their stock price is still well under $20/share, any gains are a pretty significant percentage of your investment. Out of the recent tech IPOs, I think they're one of the more underrated companies and have felt that way for quite some time. I don't think it's likely they will jump to $80/share but I think we could easily see $40/share prices if they break into profitability next holiday quarter. I think too many are letting the disappointment of Twitter skew their perceptions of Square. The business model is rock-solid and has the potential to be a true market disruption. Credit card processing tech is ripe to be steamrolled by an agile tech company and Square nailed that business model almost on day one.
  15. Brock Beauchamp
    Either way, does it matter much? Kirilloff is a several years away from Minnesota either way. If his time table moves back 6-9 months, is that really going to impact the Twins going forward? It was much more frustrating with Sano, who was on the verge of graduating to Minnesota had he stayed healthy.
  16. Brock Beauchamp
    Mauer will never catch another game in Major League Baseball. The guy had his brain rattled pretty severely. His catching days are done.
  17. Brock Beauchamp
    I'm sure there are players who try to change their approach and suffer when moving around the lineup. But it's up to the coaching staff to tell them to not change their approach. They're slotted into the lineup because of the skillset they already have, not because the coach needs them to change to fit that part of the lineup. At least that's the way it should work. Dozier is naturally a 4/5 hitter based on his skillset. You don't try to get the guy to change, you put him in the 4/5 slots and tell him to keep on keepin' on.
  18. Brock Beauchamp
    The sample sizes are small enough that they should be discarded. If a guy only gets 70 PAs while slotted into one part of the lineup, the number should be discarded because there's little to no way to tell if the hitter was just suffering through a slump during that 12-15 game stretch of play. Technically speaking, Dozier had his best performance hitting cleanup last season in about 150 PAs. His worst performance was hitting second in about 120 PAs. None of that makes sense.
  19. Brock Beauchamp
    It seems pretty logical to be wary of putting a 19 year old kid under the knife unnecessarily. If this is truly a lingering injury, Kirilloff was only 18 years old when it happened. Unfortunate, but I have a hard time blaming either Kirilloff or the Twins for giving an 18 year old body a chance to recuperate on its own.
  20. Brock Beauchamp
    If everything unfolds how I hope it does, this is my lineup in June: 1. Buxton 2. Polanco 3. Kepler 4. Dozier/Sano 5. Dozier/Sano 6. Mauer (lefty bat, should be lower based on performance but I hate bunching lefties together) 7. Vargas 8. Rosario 9. Castro
  21. Brock Beauchamp
    I'm iffy on Dozier third as well. I could easily be convinced to flip Dozier and Sano, as Sano should be much better at getting on base regularly. My hope is that Kepler will take the third spot in the lineup very soon. He's the most capable all-around hitter on the team and has decent speed, which makes him the ideal third hitter... But he needs to be a .260-.270 guy to get there, not a .238 guy. If he somehow manages to become a .280/.360/.450 guy, he's a dream candidate for third. I keep Buxton ninth simply out of caution. If he comes out of the gate and posts a .750 OPS the first three weeks of the season, I move him up the lineup in a big ass hurry. I'm wary of September-only performances and making decisions based on them.
  22. Brock Beauchamp
    I think "adding one young player" is a bit misleading when referring to this team. The Twins have one of the youngest rosters in baseball right now. Sure, they don't have many (any) rookies but they have a bunch of under-26 talent that needs to play and grow if this team is going to advance and win more games in future seasons. I don't care about 72 or 78 wins much, either, but baseball is often an incremental game when building a team. You try to hit that 75 win total because it puts you in a good position to hit 83 wins the following season. You don't try to achieve that 75 win total by playing veteran starters on expiring contracts but the Twins aren't doing that. When you get right down to it, we're talking about a catcher who will spend far more time interacting with the pitching staff in practice and drills than on the field, a guy who will receive maybe ~200 plate appearances if he sticks around for the entire season. What's it worth to have that kind of guy in the clubhouse all season? I have no idea. I hope Falvey and Levine do, though.
  23. Brock Beauchamp
    Even after Buxton's explosive September, he still finished the season with a .284 OBP. There's no freakin' way he should be near the top of the lineup to start the season. On the other hand, Polanco has always been a strong OBP guy and has an MLB OBP of .340 in 300-ish PAs. He's nearly a perfect fit for leadoff. You'd like a guy with a bit more stolen base ability but he's solid at getting on base and his power is mostly of the doubles variety.
  24. Brock Beauchamp
    Everyone should care about every starter on the 2017 squad because they will win/lose games. While the team should be in evaluation mode, that doesn't mean you punt on the people currently on the roster. And I think you're being a bit too black and white about this subject. No one is saying that Garver and Murphy aren't adequate or even good at working with pitchers, calling a game, or framing, but maybe they're not as good as Gimenez. And that's where I have to trust the new front office to use every tool available to them to quantify those differences into pure run and win/loss totals. If the result is neutral, sure, you go with the young guy over the veteran because it's important for this team to look forward as often as possible. But if the veteran has a distinct advantage, you give that veteran strong consideration for the 25 man roster.
  25. Brock Beauchamp
    Dunno, the lefty/righty splits are tough to work into the lineup as efficiently as I'd like. Off the top of my head: 1. Polanco 2. Mauer 3. Dozier 4. Sano 5. Kepler 6. Vargas 7. Rosario 8. Castro 9. Buxton Obviously, that lineup would be very fluid and guys would be rotating up/down quickly as the season unfolds. Buxton could easily jump from 9 to 6 in a few weeks, Mauer could fall from 2 to 7 in a few weeks. I don't like Kepler in the 5 spot but Vargas isn't a good option there, either. No one really fits into the 5 spot based on their 2016 performances. Polanco is the gimme choice to lead off, IMO. He's younger than I'd like but he's the only guy on the team with both wheels and the ability to get on base.
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