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Brock Beauchamp

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Everything posted by Brock Beauchamp

  1. Brock Beauchamp
    That has to be their move, right? Nothing else makes sense. Well, I guess they could call Mejia back up. That's also a possibility.
  2. Brock Beauchamp
    Yep. When you have a bunch of questionable-to-bad starter options, the only solution is to pile depth behind them and hope for the best. And that's why I was in favor of retaining Santiago. I didn't expect him to be a good pitcher but I did expect him to be better than some Andrew Albers-type pitcher. And if not for Santiago, right now we'd be looking at the Twins moving some bad AAAA arm into the rotation when they next need a fifth starter. And we're 17 games into the season.
  3. Brock Beauchamp
    IMO, he should have been here on opening day and my opinion hasn't changed.
  4. Brock Beauchamp
    A single, a double, two walks, zero runs. Twins Baseball!
  5. Brock Beauchamp
    Damn. Nice work, Chief. You really drilled down into the Fangraphs game data tool to dig that up.
  6. Brock Beauchamp
    Does the ball ever leave Sano's bat slower than 100mph?
  7. Brock Beauchamp
    First warm day at Target Field, I think. It'd be nice to see Dozier sky some balls to left field today.
  8. Brock Beauchamp
    Pretty hard to complain about this lineup against lefties. Molitor continues to try new approaches to the lineup and I think he's getting closer to a finished product (now that we have some established performance baselines to judge the 2017 roster).
  9. Brock Beauchamp
    Can I call in and talk for half an hour about the importance of keeping the ball on the ground?
  10. Brock Beauchamp
    The team still has to win baseball games. I'm just happy Buxton is playing in Minnesota right now. If you want to reel at Byron's mismanagement by the last front office, take a gander at this post I wrote last year: http://twinsdaily.com/topic/23497-article-buxton-stalls-out-again/?p=527479
  11. Brock Beauchamp
    I think Joe gets too little credit for his glove at first. He didn't even really refine his technique, he started out in a pretty solid place. In very limited innings in 2011-13, defensive metrics were pretty meh on Mauer at first but he only logged a total of 480 innings at the position across three seasons. And he wasn't even bad, he was just meh. When Joe took over full-time first base duties in 2014, defensive metrics immediately labeled him as a good defender.
  12. Brock Beauchamp
    Well, FIP assumes that all in the park contact is the same. And that works for most pitchers. Generally speaking, over a long enough period of time, there is enough consistency in the talent of MLB pitchers that all in the park contact normalizes somewhat and FIP becomes a reasonably good predictor of future success. My problem with the usage of FIP is the assumption that it works for all pitchers. It doesn't. Like most predictive stats, there are outliers who routinely under- or over-perform their "talent" (for lack of a better word) and kinda break FIP. I also dislike the use of career FIP once a pitcher logs several seasons of play, especially if said pitcher splits their career between multiple teams and leagues (thereby diminishing the impact of good/bad team defense and park effect). At that point, ERA becomes a more accurate assessment of that pitcher's ability because it (mostly) tracks what actually happened, not what was supposed to happen. But over- and under-performers of FIP appear to be relatively rare (Santiago and Nolasco are good examples of each), which means FIP is still a pretty useful tool, IMO. But, like most other metrics, it needs to be used correctly and it needs to be acknowledged that the metric doesn't work for every player 100% of the time.
  13. Brock Beauchamp
    Terry Francona is a special case. He seems to be taking the lead in changing how bullpens are managed and has become something of an anti-LaRussa.
  14. Brock Beauchamp
    In the new canon, Jar Jar is still around as of five years post-Endor.
  15. Brock Beauchamp
    I don't think he's streaky so much as he hasn't really put it together offensively. His career high season OPS is .721 and looking through his splits, he only has four months OPSing above .800 or below .600 (out of a possible 16 months total). And that's including this month, which hasn't finished yet (currently at .861, could drop considerably in next 7-8 days).
  16. Brock Beauchamp
    I don't see Murphy getting the call unless he turns around his season. The guy has been putrid with the bat for going on two seasons.
  17. Brock Beauchamp
    And that's fair. My point was that the deficiency against LHP is greater. Lots of lefties in this lineup and none of them even adequate against LHP (which is pretty common). It's not a huge gap though.
  18. Brock Beauchamp
    There's a difference between three and four. I can't remember the last time I saw a closer enter the ninth with a four run lead unless it was a "this guy hasn't pitched in a week and needs some reps" situation. Yet that same pitcher comes out with a three run lead almost like clockwork.
  19. Brock Beauchamp
    Santana's the only guy from that list I would have predicted on opening day.
  20. Brock Beauchamp
    Oh, I know, just ribbing you. Though it is funny how often project managers confuse those two things. "You're being lazy!" "No, I just think this is stupid and don't really give enough of a **** to fight you on it. There's a Star Wars Celebration livestream in 45 minutes and I'm hoping that if I don't say anything, you'll run out of things to talk about and I can go watch it."
  21. Brock Beauchamp
    If that was true, the graph compared to WPA wouldn't look like this:
  22. Brock Beauchamp
    That's absolutely because of the save stat. What else would it be? Why do managers call out their closer with a three run lead but not a four run lead? Why is it almost always three outs? Why is it always the ninth inning? The save stat (and Tony LaRussa) created the modern closer. I don't see how that's even in dispute here. Baseball has been chasing a stat for 30 years.
  23. Brock Beauchamp
    Is it, though? If a team is up by three runs in the ninth, I'll be surprised if the "closer" comes out less than 80% of the time unless there are usage concerns.
  24. Brock Beauchamp
    Possibly. Maybe I just have an irrational hatred of the save statistic because, not only is is mostly worthless, but somehow it changed the game of baseball for the worse. I really, really hate the save statistic. In the history of the game, has a more trivial stat actually impacted how managers and players play the game? The save stat is a shining example of the tail wagging the dog.
  25. Brock Beauchamp
    WPA is a rate stat because it can go backwards and/or into the negative. A counting stat cannot do either of those things.
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