Brock Beauchamp

I’m a big fan of pitchers changing their numbers to match their ERA+.

I’m really concerned about this offense. Though they ARE facing the Orioles staff...

Yeah, your problem sounded either network or computer based but it’s possible the problems are linked. Anyone else having issues?

too many words

All this talk of 1989 and not a single mention that it was the birth year of Taylor Swift. You’re all just a bunch of haters who are gonna hate hate hate hate hate.

Huh. Anyone else having this problem? I haven’t seen a slowdown, much less a time-out, in months on the site. Also, we’ve been with our current web host for years now and haven’t upgraded/moved hardware in maybe 18 months or so. And you couldn’t pay me to use GoDaddy hosting. To complain about their level of customer service gives them too much credit, as it implies they have customer service. Even their hardware price points aren’t particularly good considering their lack of service. They should spend way less on advertising and way more on techs.

When it comes to leadoff hitters, we all love to point at Rickey Henderson. Well, I have a couple of points about that: - If Rickey was playing baseball in the modern era, he wouldn't lead off. No way, no how does a modern GM put that career .820 OPS (much higher in his prime) in the leadoff spot. - Even if a GM decided it was best to put Rickey in the leadoff spot because of those wheels, there are "wheels" and there are "Rickey wheels". If we talk about career stolen bases, Rickey's utter dominance of that stat would be the equivalent of a non-steroid Bonds hitting 1200 home runs in his career. Rickey didn't just steal bases, he took them at will. Damn, he was even known for mocking pitchers by holding up two fingers when he reached first base (as in "two pitches for you, two bases for me"). If we were to rate the best base-stealers in baseball history fairly, it would read like this: 1. Rickey Henderson 2. Rickey Henderson 3. Rickey Henderson 4. Lou Brock 5. A bunch of old guys with photos from chew tobacco cards, who cares 6. Tim Raines or Vince Coleman or somebody else, I can't even remember because whatever Rickey was that dominant. Yet we all pretend that because one guy was so dominant at a position that all other faint shadows of that player must hit in the same position because reasons. No one will dominate the bases like Rickey so let's judge Byron fairly; put him in a position to drive a bunch of runners to the plate with his power but also a position where he can swipe bags and be driven in as often as possible. That's the 2-3 spot in the lineup, obviously depending on where he lands with his power and OBP.

Will this myth die already? I can't find the article now, as it's over a decade old, but there was a lengthy examination of Morris' entire career and there is absolutely no evidence he pitched better or worse based on the score. If someone else has it handy, I'd appreciate the link again.

You should know by now how much I dislike Dozier in the leadoff spot. I've certainly brought it up often enough.

Yeah... Both Nathan and Perkins were elite closers (Nathan may have been the best closer of his era). For a full decade (2004-2013), Nathan had an ERA of 2.14, a FIP of 2.55, and 340 (!) saves. Oh, and he gave up all of 43 homers in roughly 600 innings pitched. Given his approximate rate of one inning per appearance, that's roughly one home run every 12-13 appearances. Tacking on later years only undermines how elite he was for a full decade.

If we want to be pedantic about the situation, remember that roughly 70% of the time a ball is put in play, an out is recorded. Can we say the same about walks? It's a loaded statement to say that hits are better most of the time because it's focusing on an outcome that is largely outside the batter's control and also ignoring that in a vacuum, a walk is often the same as a single because most batters come to the plate with no one on base. Sure, the outcome of a hit is superior to the outcome of a walk. But to say that hitters should pursue the former over the latter ignores the actuality of baseball; a hitter has a larger control over one than the other (as does the pitcher, inversely). And in a game of failure, a hitter taking control of what they can control should not be diminished, particularly when literally the entire game hinges upon making the fewest outs possible.

Well, uh, sure...? I don't think a single person who has watched baseball for even one minute will say a walk is equal to a triple.

If Buxton is who we think he is, I don't see a scenario where it makes sense for him to leadoff. Just because a dude is lightning fast doesn't mean he's a leadoff hitter. We need to get that silly notion out of our heads. You don't burn an .800 OPS on a leadoff hitter just because he has wheels. You put that guy second or third so he can drive in runs with that .800 OPS and if he happens to get on base and steal a bunch of bags for the 3-4-5 hitters, huzzah.

Bolded: absolutely, but what happens more often; a single with an error (thereby advancing an extra base) or a single with all runners advancing a single base (thereby negating the advantage of the single over a walk)? Probably the latter. Anyway, not disputing that a single is more valuable, only pointing out that a single doesn't have a discernible advantage over a walk in 50%+ of opportunities.

Singles aren't better than walks most of the time. Last season, there were 185,000 total PAs in baseball. Only 80,000 of those PAs came with men on base, which is where a single has the ability to make a noticeable difference over a walk. That means a single had the chance for a significantly better outcome than a walk only 43% of the time (ie. not "most").

One thing to consider is that the Twins have as much or more leverage in seven months than they do today. Thanks, qualifying offer. And they get to minimize risk of Dozier collapsing during the 2018 season and being on the hook for four more years of his service. Like I've said a bunch of times, I just don't see the reason to discuss an extension today. There are multiple pieces in play and the front office will have a much better idea of how to proceed in November.

It's certainly a risk but given how many big money teams used this offseason to reset their luxury tax threshold, I doubt next offseason will resemble this offseason. Also, Brian Dozier is both younger and a much better player than Todd Frazier. Dozier's 2017 fWAR value is nearly the equal of Frazier's 2016-2017 fWAR value.

Yeah, that was kind of my point. He's preoccupied with framing on almost every pitch, which diminishes his ability to react to things like balls in the dirt or baserunners.

Somehow I missed this over the spring but Jose De Leon had TJS in the middle of March. Dodged a real bullet there. Holy crap, that guy is never going to pitch.

Castro has mentioned that when he's framing, it's first and foremost in his mind, sometimes to the detriment of other things. I wonder if this is an ugly side effect of his framing.

Ah, good catch. I thought the Orioles were better than that with RISP today.

I believe the idea is that you won’t go 1-for-9 with RISP every time, which means you score more than two.

Even if you count those losses on top of the blown saves (which obviously shouldn't be the case, as there is overlap there and you're counting twice), he converted saves at a nearly 90% clip. Dave, you're just wrong here. Move on. Talk about something else for awhile and don't disrupt the forum with hyperbole. This isn't a suggestion.

Yet by every metric available to us, he was very good that season. He walked too many guys but he has always walked too many guys. But he missed a ton of bats and didn't allow home runs. As a result, his ERA/FIP were very good and he converted saves at a ferocious pace (don't have the stat in front of me but it was around 95% that season).

Right, it's meaningless. Because ERA really stabilizes over ~60 innings. Besides, if you want to actually talk results, Rodney got the job done in 2017. He was a closer and converted ~87% of his save opportunities. But you just brushed off his save percentage a few minutes ago, didn't you? Either debate honestly or step away from the keyboard for a few hours. We all know you're passionate about the Twins but try to keep a level head about things.