The problem is that Cruz, like all of us, is mortal. He's also at the age where decline comes in a hurry. The number of great hitters at age 40 is very small in the history of MLB... but the percentage of those same players who were out of baseball completely at age 42 is very high. Cruz is at the age where literally the best hitters in the history of the game stopped being good at baseball. Jim Thome was a beast at age 39. At age 40, he was good. At age 41, he retired. Frank Thomas was a beast at age 38, good at 39, and retired at 40. When the fall comes, it comes in a hurry. I'm moderately comfortable with Cruz signing for his age 41 season but have absolutely no faith in guaranteeing his age 42 season. My line in the sand would be a generous offer for 2021 with an option and generous buyout (say $3m) for 2022. Give him a nice incentive to stick around without risking $15m on a 42 year old hitter.