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Brock Beauchamp

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Everything posted by Brock Beauchamp

  1. Brock Beauchamp
    I never said they couldn't be estimated, I only said owners have profited massively over the past couple of decades and the Forbes numbers back that up. And, as a fan, the numbers being bandied about every year make it increasingly difficult to support American professional sports. Our loyalty and entertainment is being milked for every penny possible, usually to the detriment of our own experiences, whether that be ticket prices, cable subscription prices, or the recent ownership power grab to change fundamental rules of the game and season just two weeks before Spring Training is expected to start. All of this sucks and I hate it while simultaneously loving the game itself.
  2. Brock Beauchamp
    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.forbes.com/sites/kurtbadenhausen/2020/05/29/mlb-owners-cry-hardship-while-forbes-shows-8-billion-in-team-profits-since-2010/amp/ Weird, the *only* people who bother to do the work that’s so easy in your eyes show *massive* profits over the past decade. Feel free to do that easy work to contradict their findings.
  3. Brock Beauchamp
    I have a few problems with this lineup but one MAJOR problem. You forgot the person titled in this very thread.
  4. Brock Beauchamp
    I'm lukewarm on this, honestly. I think other options could have been had for less money or less risk (as in Ozuna for more years at the same money or another player at far less money for one year) but I am not unhappy that Nelson Cruz is back on the Minnesota Twins roster in 2021.
  5. Brock Beauchamp
    The Twins have apparently agreed to a deal with Cruz for $13m according to Jeff Passan. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/02/twins-to-re-sign-nelson-cruz.html
  6. Brock Beauchamp
    Tesla is definitely overvalued but they still pour a MASSIVE portion of their revenue into R&D. While they need the offsets right now, it's a big assumption they will continue to need them in future years as they roll out more mass-market BEVs like the Model Y (just gaining production momentum now) and Cybertruck. As they increase production across more models, their R&D costs should decrease proportionally, by a lot. And there's no sign of Tesla slowing down, they're extremely well positioned in the market and everyone else will be playing catchup for a minimum of several years. The only company I thought could challenge Tesla in the short- to mid-term was GM but after releasing the promising Bolt 5+ years ago, they sat on their hands for years. I don't get WTF they were thinking but that's an entirely different conversation.
  7. Brock Beauchamp
    I never fully understood why so many believe Rosario is a better player under pressure. We can all certainly agree that Eddie is an intense player but given his plate discipline, or rather lack thereof, I'm not sure an "amped up" Eddie is a good thing and could make a minor argument the opposite is true. Career OPS+ of 100 as a baseline for the following career stats (lower is worse than overall career line, higher is better than overall career line): RISP: 98 Bases Empty: 102 Men On: 98 2 outs, RISP: 85 (yikes) Late & Close: 104 High Leverage: 91 All of those "clutch" stats have Rosario as a worse hitter than his career line, excluding Late & Close. Which makes sense as a spectator who has watched Rosario for many seasons. While he certainly had some very memorable moments, I also remember watching him miss a head-high fastball before walking back to the dugout or rolling over on a bad first pitch in a critical situation countless times. Guys with little to no plate discipline certainly get a lot of opportunities to make an impression - which Eddie must have done for many here - but when combined with all those bad, mostly forgettable plate appearances, his numbers in the aggregate suggest he was mostly neutral in critical situations and pretty bad in a few critical situations.
  8. Brock Beauchamp
    B-Ref had them tied in rWAR last season while fangraphs had Lindor a full win higher in fWAR. And it was a shortened season that had Lindor well down from his typical offensive season and Rosario a tick above his typical offensive season, which is to be expected in a season that short under such conditions, and it’s probably not a good indicator of future performance. I put much more stock in the 2018-19 numbers which tell us Lindor is a significantly better hitter and a vastly better player. Now in dollars to performance, that’s a rather different argument but something well outside a field performance comparison, which was the initial comment I responded to.
  9. Brock Beauchamp
    Lindor is a slightly better hitter, plays a premium position, and plays it *much* better than Rosario does his non-premium position. While Cleveland needed a corner OF (for like three seasons running) and Eddie fills that role just fine, he is in no way, shape, or form a replacement for anything about Lindor, who is better at pretty much everything baseball.
  10. Brock Beauchamp
    Since you seem to know everything about me, you surely know that I’m actually quite a fan of Rosario but I’m also smart enough to realize that paying for mediocrity at a position of excess is not something successful mid-market teams do on a regular basis, as it’s generally poor use of limited resources. I have no desire to see Rosario leave the team but using Rooker/Kirilloff/etc in his position and utilizing that additional $7.5m to acquire another player at a position of need likely means the Twins are a better team than they are with Rosario for $8m. PS. Eddie Rosario has all of one 30/100 season in his career so yeah, okay.
  11. Brock Beauchamp
    $8m is more than I expected, good for Eddie. While I hold zero love for Cleveland, I hope he does well and continues to get paid.
  12. Brock Beauchamp
    Seventh in all of MLB? Wow, that's entirely unexpected.
  13. Brock Beauchamp
    Rosario has nearly 3000 MLB plate appearances, I don't believe we need more time to draw the conclusion that he's an adequate MLB starter but nothing more than that. He's also nearing or at the decline phase while the Twins have several very good corner outfielders in the high minors, any of which could outperform Rosario as soon as this season. The Twins also paid him $14m to play for them, why are they obligated to continue doing so? I've seen plenty of teams do a player wrong but waiving a guy instead of going to arbitration isn't one of them. They even placed Eddie on outright waivers so any team could claim him at his arbitration price tag. And your second example is Lance Lynn... what did the Twins do to him? They gave him money when other teams wouldn't, that's what they did. The fact Lynn was mad because no other team offered him more money is not the Twins' fault, and certainly not an indicator of fault. Berrios has no legit complaint as far as I'm aware. He's the one who routinely talks down a possible extension, which is his right. He has faith in himself and good for him, I hope it works out. Buxton is the sole example that has any legitimacy and I hope the Twins find a way to repair that relationship, if it's still bad, which I don't know because I haven't heard anything about it in well over a year.
  14. Brock Beauchamp
    Heh, yeah, Everett was terrible with the bat during his best seasons, too.
  15. Brock Beauchamp
    Simmons is a *much* better hitter. Everett had a career OPS+ of 66, Simmons is 91.
  16. Brock Beauchamp
    Rosario isn’t that good, either. There’s a reason every team passed on him and he remains unsigned today.
  17. Brock Beauchamp
    This is a good way to lose baseball games, just look at the Angels. You’re putting all your eggs into 1-2 baskets that can be easily injured or have a down year, at which point you’re screwed with no backup plan. Having elite players is important but depth is what gets you to the postseason. Look at the Twins and Cleveland over the past two seasons. The Twins had enormous depth while Cleveland had five elite players - better than anyone on the Minnesota roster - and a bunch of scrubs. Who won the division those two seasons?
  18. Brock Beauchamp
    I have some of the same concerns but also have enough faith in this front office that they’re not throwing darts blindfolded. The Twins are definitely better at this kind of thing than the Angels and Simmons is absolutely better in the field than Polanco. With the right positioning and strategy, Simmons should improve, or at least hold steady over a single season. But he’s definitely at the decline age for a middle infielder, though I have no real idea to what extent. His 2019 was injury-riddled and 2020 was only 60 games. We haven’t gotten sufficient data for Simmons since 2018, which makes spreadsheet analysis kinda worthless.
  19. Brock Beauchamp
    I think both Polanco and Arraez roam. Polanco back to short on occasion, Arraez more all over the field in the Marwin role.
  20. Brock Beauchamp
    Agreed. I see people - not here but elsewhere - acting like Simmons is Drew Butera. He’s been close to league average with the bat, which makes him pretty okay as an offensive shortstop.
  21. Brock Beauchamp
    Maybe you misread what I typed... the team is better now and probably not by an IGsignificant amount. Basically, it’s probable the team just improved significantly, I just worded it in reverse.
  22. Brock Beauchamp
    Nice.
  23. Brock Beauchamp
    A perfectly adequate signing. Not my first or even second choice but a fine signing. The team is better now than It was six hours ago and probably not by an insignificant amount.
  24. Brock Beauchamp
    I’ve been in a couple retractable roof stadiums. Give me Target Field every single time. I have no desire to watch baseball surrounded by walls, even if the ceiling is gone. Never mind that a retractible roof meant that TF couldn’t be in downtown Minneapolis, one of its biggest selling points.
  25. Brock Beauchamp
    Without a doubt but my first choice would be to send both packing. Nothing against Adrianza, he was pretty good in the role while with the Twins, but it's probably time to move on from both him and (definitely) Marwin.
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