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Brock Beauchamp

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Everything posted by Brock Beauchamp

  1. Brock Beauchamp
    I'm not looking for an overpay, just a fair offer. And the fewer upside arms that are left on the market, I think the closer that offer comes to reality.
  2. Brock Beauchamp
    If you have a shot at Pomeranz, why would you be interested in Santana? Let's not pretend even for a moment the two pitchers are comparable. If anything, we should be happy Boston went ahead and pulled the trigger on this deal early so Pomeranz is off the market.
  3. Brock Beauchamp
    It's also important to remember that Colorado actually wanted Reyes because the GM of the Rockies is a lunatic. Almost everyone considered Reyes a drag on that deal... Except for Colorado.
  4. Brock Beauchamp
    And neither the Pirates nor the Royals won until they burned everything to the ground and rebuilt from the farm system. The Twins, talent-wise, were about a 75-78 win team last season. They had almost everything break right for them... But you're saying that were everything to break entirely super-duper right for them, they could have made the postseason. Luck is not a reason to push all your chips into the middle of the table. It's nearly a sure-fire way to lose over and over again until you're entirely broke. I was fine with Ryan's moves last season, I only think they should have happened a month before they did (or, once May happened, he should have been more aggressive with bullpen fixes from the either the waiver wire or the farm). But the 2015 Twins simply weren't a very good team. They were a mediocre, maybe slightly below mediocre, team that had a bunch of stuff go right for a month.
  5. Brock Beauchamp
    And it's a great point. We often talk about how volatile relievers are (excepting the elite guys) and use that as leverage to avoid signing anyone to more than a two year contract (and often, no more than one year). Ryan is notorious for offering one year deals to relievers only to have them reject the offer. But Ryan didn't only trade for the value of 1.5 seasons of Jepsen, he lauded the move because "he'll be here next year, too". Does. Not. Compute.
  6. Brock Beauchamp
    To be fair to my post, here were the paragraphs following the one you quoted: "The Twins didn't get super-lucky with him, I'm sure they had scouts out there with information on his early season struggles with Tampa. But they kinda got lucky because, injury considerations aside, Jepsen was a phenomenal pitcher down the stretch and Kevin Jepsen is not a phenomenal pitcher." The Twins got the best two months of Kevin Jepsen possible but there was no reason to expect him to implode the following season. He had a solid track record of something just north of mediocrity.
  7. Brock Beauchamp
    Ah, my bad. I missed that.
  8. Brock Beauchamp
    Yes, but Jepsen was much worse the first two months of 2015, good the next month, even better the following two months.
  9. Brock Beauchamp
    To be fair, I remember reading he had fought a minor injury early in the 2015 season and wasn't healthy until July, when he turned back into a good pitcher (and similar to what he had done in previous seasons). The Twins didn't get super-lucky with him, I'm sure they had scouts out there with information on his early season struggles with Tampa. But they kinda got lucky because, injury considerations aside, Jepsen was a phenomenal pitcher down the stretch and Kevin Jepsen is not a phenomenal pitcher.
  10. Brock Beauchamp
    Whoa, whoa, whoa. Let's not shoot for the moon here. I would have been happy with "trade Ramos for a guy who isn't a middling relief pitcher".
  11. Brock Beauchamp
    Nick Blackburn, pitching savior.
  12. Brock Beauchamp
    Capps was slightly better but, yes, you are correct that the Twins picked up something resembling a clone of what they already had on the roster. And they gave up a pretty solid top 100 prospect for the honor. I don't think I've screamed as much about a trade as it happened as I did during that trade... Though I also hated the Young/Garza trade... Not because I expected Young to tank but because losing Santana AND Garza in the same offseason meant the rotation was, to be generous, not awesome.
  13. Brock Beauchamp
    I was meh on the trade when it happened. There was upside in Jepsen and he performed well in 2015. With that said, Nick has a valid point. Why is Ryan willing to give up Hu AND Tapia for Jepsen but unwilling to sign a reliever to a three year deal in the offseason? There's a cognitive dissonance in that approach and it really bothers me. As Nick pointed out, prospects are the most valuable currency in baseball, even more than cash.
  14. Brock Beauchamp
    A bit unfair to compare a 29 year old whose career appears to be on the upswing to a bunch of retired players. When all is said and done, it's likely Nunez will be no higher than fourth on the list and he may not be on the list at all. But, other than that, good list. Hard to argue with most of the choices.
  15. Brock Beauchamp
    I'm not trying to be snarky but given how his OPS+ over the past two seasons is 57 (456 PAs), good god, I hope he hasn't hit his ceiling.
  16. Brock Beauchamp
    Oh, I understand the Twins were in a really weird situation with Polanco - freak injuries caused some ill-advised call-ups - but some of that could have been avoided with less awkward 25- and 40-man roster construction. And I agree that the Twins haven't painted themselves in a corner... Yet. They can roll with Polanco as a utility guy later this season and next season... But that's going to involve Ryan clearing up some space on the 25-man roster... Something he hasn't been very good about in recent years. Trade Nunez and Polanco becomes (mostly) a non-issue. DFA Santana and that works, too. God, I hope Buxton is back soon so Ryan isn't tempted to hold on to Santana at the expense of Polanco (and while I kinda like Nunez, I don't see an acceptable alternative to trading him... The Twins need that roster space). Something has to give and space needs to be cleared.
  17. Brock Beauchamp
    No arguments here. Polanco spent his first two option years accumulating 20 (!!!!!!!!!!! I cannot stress that enough) plate appearances. That's not bad 40 man management. That's "Dude, here's your pink slip because ARE YOU KIDDING ME" 40 man management.
  18. Brock Beauchamp
    Yes, yes, and yes.
  19. Brock Beauchamp
    I'm not sure they're forcing themselves into a corner with Polanco. Yeah, you want to see him play in Minnesota as much as possible but the Twins could easily trade Nunez and then Polanco gets playing time. Maybe Escobar gets injured. There's his playing time. And there's no reason for both D Santana and Grossman to be on this team. I HATE the way the Twins jerked around Polanco and wasted his option years but I don't think they're in a corner quite yet. There is enough trade bait and roster chaff to get him some playing time in the second half of the season.
  20. Brock Beauchamp
    To clarify my point, I'd put everyone over 25 on the table at the deadline (maybe not Gibson but given his current value, it's probably irrelevant). I would do everything in my power to trade, return be damned: Suzuki, Plouffe, Milone, Nolasco (LOL) I would take any reasonable offer for: Abad, Nunez I would take offers on but only trade the following if the return brought back a prospect that can contribute within 18 months: Dozier, Santana Depending on how the Twins close out 2016, I may be more or less open to trading Dozier or Santana this offseason (also, a lot depends on Polanco). I don't expect the Twins to compete in 2017. I also won't rule it out this July. That means any valuable piece I send to another team this deadline needs to return a prospect that can help as soon as 2017 and no later than 2018. Dozier and Santana can contribute to the opening of the Twins' next window of competitiveness. I'm not giving either away unless the return is another player that can contribute to that window. I'm not interested in 2020. I care about 2018, maybe even 2017 a little bit.
  21. Brock Beauchamp
    I didn't call you out. Go back and read your posts. If you can't see how you were antagonizing the situation right off the bat with the forest for the trees comment, whatever. People can disagree and argue without implying the other is stupid, short-sighted, or somehow deficient in their thinking and if they just saw it your way, the heavens would open to them and light would bathe them in Knowledge and Truth.
  22. Brock Beauchamp
    Cover my ass junk? For ****'s sake, Levi. You just can't argue civilly, can you? I'm not even going to bother.
  23. Brock Beauchamp
    Agreed on both counts. Santana is worth less than Dozier. He's older and it's not that hard to spend $10m to take a flyer on a vet starter this offseason. It puts the Twins in an awkward situation: 1. Santana is more expendable than Dozer because he's older and not as valuable 2. Dozier is more expendable than Santana because Jorge Polanco is waiting While the Twins can trade both of them, I think that's a tall order for ANY deadline. It's hard enough to move one guy with 2+ years on his contract... Moving two of them would be remarkable. Which brings us back to the offseason. Which player has more value in the offseason? It's probably Dozier but given how craptastic the free agent pitching market looks this offseason, Santana might not be far behind.
  24. Brock Beauchamp
    I'm not losing the forest for the trees, I'm simply not declaring 2017 a write-off in July of 2016. I'm all for trading guys if the return fits the Twins' needs... What I'm NOT for is trading guys just to trade guys (either trough nominal return on value or low minors prospects who won't help until 2020). And with that said, I'm still for trading everyone I can over 25, I'm just not going to give away Santana or Dozier. The deal has to be right, that's all. Because it's likely both players have similar value this offseason and by that time, you have more information how to proceed. It feels a bit convenient that you edited the last paragraph out of that post: "But, again, any and all offers should be heard. If the offer is good, Ryan should take it. I'm skeptical the 2017 team will be able to contend but I also think it's foolish to write off their contention in July of 2016."
  25. Brock Beauchamp
    That... Won't happen. If a guy has front of the rotation stuff and is in AA, it's likely the team would just put him in the MLB rotation and let it rip.
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