Yeah, that's a weakness in the article, once I spotted right off the bat. They really need to adjust for number of teams and/or number of pitches, neither of which is addressed in that graph.
But I've heard it mentioned on podcasts recently and the number is definitely still increasing so the problem isn't resolving itself... and now pitchers don't get to use glue to hold the ball to their hand.
People did worry about it. MLB banned some arm and elbow padding to get hitters off the plate.
20 years later, we're back at the same point again, except now pitchers throw ~5mph faster.
Nolan Ryan peaked at 15 HBP in 1971.
Bob Gibson peaked at 13 HBP in 1963.
That would have ranked them third and fifth, respectively, in HBP in 2019 and those were their peak seasons of HBP. Most years, both pitchers were in the single digits in HBP.
Nolan Ryan hit a batter once every 5.1 starts or once every 34 IP.
Bob Gibson hit a batter once every 5.2 starts or once every 38 IP.
In 2019, Trevor Bauer hit a batter once every 1.8 starts or once every 11 IP.
That's the tricky balance of all this. Batters are stronger and faster than ever and pitchers are forced to go hard inside to get them out a lot of the time. On the other hand, pitchers are ridiculously dominant right now and the rate at which plunking guys with 95mph pitches needs to start declining, not continuing to escalate... and pitchers were hitting batters at this rate while using sticky substances. What's going to happen now that they can't do that?
It's possible that pitchers both need to be ejected for multiple HBP and batters need to be forced to stop standing on top of the plate. I'm not sure those two things should be exclusively addressed.
That's essentially the question I'm asking: given increased velocity and pitcher reliance on sticky stuff, is it time to take away going inside against a batter when every guy on the mound throws 96mph?
Buxton's injury is devastating for a few reasons but it's also tied to some problems MLB has been facing recently:
1. Pitcher foreign substances to enhance grip - we've all heard about this and the actions MLB has taken to ban them, potentially causing more instances of HBP as pitchers try to maintain velocity but lose grip on the ball
2. Ever-increasing velocity - we all know pitchers are throwing harder than ever with the number continuing to rise every year, causing offense to plummet and spurring hitters to chase Three True Outcomes more every year
3. Pitchers using the inside pitch as HBP numbers escalate (not a great combination with added velocity)
From a FG article in 2019, here is the HBP rate over MLB history:
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-hit-by-pitch-continues-to-reach-new-heights/
While I agree, I think I’d still put Gordon at short a lot in 2021 just to see what you have and to make sure he gets reps.
If wins don’t matter, why not run Gordon out there?
Probably only Celestino. It’s always possible Jeffers, Kirilloff, or Larnach slide back far enough to earn a demotion but they all look pretty legit right now. I think Kirilloff and Larnach are close to locks to stay up.
I mean… sometimes? But as we’ve seen with the likes of Hicks and Buxton, forcing the issue and letting a guy get his face bashed in nightly isn’t a recipe for success. A guy has to be ready enough to not embarrass himself and that’s ignoring service time considerations.