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Brock Beauchamp

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Everything posted by Brock Beauchamp

  1. Brock Beauchamp
    Huh. Saw that all coming about 45 minutes into the first episode. Hiding the ball in an obvious manner is bad... It gets someone thinking about how clueless the characters are and then you start spotting every. single. thing. that. will. happen. It's the opposite of suspension of disbelief. Instead of being enraptured, you pick apart every single thing that's on screen and then know what happens next.
  2. Brock Beauchamp
    Watched the first 2.5 episodes of The Umbrella Academy and wow am I disappointed right now. Hour long episodes, watched 2.5 of them. That’s a long-ish movie running time. Almost nothing has happened. Which is too bad because I like the premise, like the cast, and wanted to like the show. But after the fifth time the writers chose to hide the ball (again) instead of revealing *anything*, I simply lost interest.
  3. Brock Beauchamp
    No, you probably shouldn't. It's not a show that will grow on you. It's a show that you either love in the first five minutes or just don't care to watch. No answer is wrong, except one answer is wrong.
  4. Brock Beauchamp
    I’m only a few episodes into it so I don’t know what kind of legs it will have but Letterkenny is comedic genius. You can find it on Hulu. Warning: it’s likely the kind of show you will love or hate. I don’t think there will be a lot of middle ground on this one.
  5. Brock Beauchamp
    Well, yes and no. It's the first week of March. Hitters aren't exactly up to speed on game velocity. Good that he performed, great that he showed increased velocity, what the hitters did with it is basically inconsequential.
  6. Brock Beauchamp
    I actually agree with most of this, which is why I haven't really refuted Gonzalez' +1 projection... as a median. At its root, my questionable confidence in this kind of projection is two-fold: 1. That replacement players are actually available. We have a pretty long track record of watching some truly abysmal players get time on the field, though it should be noted a lot of that happened under the previous front office (which makes it as much of a management mistake as player). 2. That WAR itself - which is used for the projections - is even worth a damn when you get in SSS of I'm not even saying the projection is wrong. It very well could be spot-on but when we start dealing with tiny numbers and lots of them, my faith in advanced metrics begin to waver (and, essentially, Gonzalez' replacements would be lots of tiny numbers).
  7. Brock Beauchamp
    I mostly agree and see where you're coming from but disagree on "bad luck". I consider it an inevitability in today's game. Someone will get injured. Gonzalez will take their place. Where Gonzalez separates himself from someone like, say, Adrianza, is that he can play anywhere. In your scenario, I'd probably agree that it requires a fair amount of "bad luck" to get Adrianza 400 PAs, as it means your middle infield was torn to shreds over the season. But in the case of Gonzalez, it could come in small bursts all over the diamond: 40 PAs in left, 60 PAs at short, 80 PAs at third, etc. Because of Gonzalez' versatility, I don't believe it requires bad luck for him to get a lot of playing time all over the field, all the while replacing someone at neutral or negative WAR value. Starters will get dinged up over the season and having a guy already on the roster to fill in for them can lead to a lot of PAs, all the while keeping your roster more stable in the process and not risking some pretty awful performances from replacement players, even if their scope of damage is limited to only a few plate appearances.
  8. Brock Beauchamp
    I generally agree but those bad performances don't go away because you replace them, they're only mitigated somewhat. And a roughly league-average replacement instead of dipping your toes into polluted water - no matter how briefly - has a positive impact on the season. But we're also getting into cloudy territory with WAR itself here. For example, Logan Morrison was atrocious last season. Over ~350 PAs, he was "worth" -0.3 WAR. Over 21 PAs last season, Tayler Motter was "worth" -0.3 WAR. Maybe my point isn't as much about projection systems not properly evaluating replacement players, it's about WAR being so shaky on partial seasons. Either way, I have little confidence in either accurately judging the value of someone like Gonzalez as a 10th starting man.
  9. Brock Beauchamp
    I have to wonder if this is a place where prediction models fail. They account for playing time but I question how accurately they predict subpar replacement players. For example, Gonzalez is likely a step down from Polanco. But if Polanco gets injured, how much of a step up is Gonzalez from Replacement Player X? We all know the basic replacement player performance level but we also realize that replacement players aren't available all the time, or that a team may misjudge a "replacement player" and get something much worse in their place. If Gonzalez starts 100 games because he's just pencilled in as a starter, we can pretty accurately judge his value to the team in wins. If Gonzalez starts 100 games at three different positions because of injuries to starting players or general ineffectiveness, I have less faith a projection model is accurately judging his value to a team.
  10. Brock Beauchamp
    Got it. I totally misunderstood your post.
  11. Brock Beauchamp
    I think you're overlooking the fact that someone will go down in the first month of the season... and the second month of the season... and so on. Adding a player like Gonzalez gives you flexibility when things are good and a quite good backup should things go bad. I have a lot of faith that a manager like Baldelli will be able to use that kind of player in a way that add wins to the team over the course of a season.
  12. Brock Beauchamp
    I kinda get what you're saying but the Gonzalez move only makes me grumble more about the lack of an impact bullpen arm this offseason. Add that and I think the Twins are pretty easily an 85 win team based on last season's performances, with an upside of 90+ wins without even squinting (95 if you squint a bit). Young teams that underperform in a season often either fizzle out entirely or go bananas. My opinion is that you bank on the "go bananas" side of that equation and you buy a few players to hedge that bet. You don't need to go sign Keuchel and indebt yourself to a player for 4+ seasons but you should definitely sign guys like Gonzalez (and a reliever) to give the young players a framework in which to succeed.
  13. Brock Beauchamp
    I was trying to figure out a way to butcher his name so kudos to you.
  14. Brock Beauchamp
    Randball Stu has been absolutely killing it.
  15. Brock Beauchamp
    Fantastic move. Gonzalez brings badly needed flexibility to this roster. Call up Astudillo after the first injury and you can rotate people all over the field, creating matchup havoc with the back of the roster.
  16. Brock Beauchamp
    YAAAASSSSSSSSSSSSSSS THEY EVEN FRONT-LOADED A BIT! My grumpiness over the offseason is decreasing exponentially. Keep it coming, boys. Don't stop at Polanco and Kepler.
  17. Brock Beauchamp
    *slow clap*
  18. Brock Beauchamp
    Sure, Perez can bounce back. Great, sure, whatever. The problem is that even if he bounces back, his past ceiling has been "eh, whatever, he won't kill you out there in the fourth or fifth spot". This team has a $100m payroll. So forgive me if I don't get excited about a pitcher "bouncing back" to mediocrity when the team should have literally forty million dollars to go buy some real pitchers. "Working within the margins" only matters if you're working at 100% payroll capacity... not if you have a Tampa Bay Rays-sized hole in your payroll. That's not working within the margins. That's called "being cheap". Again, super-thrilled that my Minneapolis tax dollars have supported this ever-underwhelming attempt at contention.
  19. Brock Beauchamp
    And that's fair. I still want a reliever either way but would feel better with extensions to various players, primarily if the team front-loads those contracts and spends the money TODAY so they have more money TOMORROW. If you can lock down a couple of players cheaply through 2022-23, that possibly extends the bridge of legitimate contention for another few years as those extended players are joined by the next wave of Kirilloff, Lewis, Thorpe, etc.
  20. Brock Beauchamp
    Pretty much any combination of Buxton, Gibson, Berrios, Sano, Rosario, Kepler if the terms are in line with performance. I’d target Gibson and/or Berrios first but I’m generally in favor of several extensions (though the terms for Buxton or Sano probably don’t make sense for either side right now).
  21. Brock Beauchamp
    The thing is that I really had zero complaints about last off-season. Maybe it wasn’t the route I would have taken but it was a legitimate attempt to win on a relative budget. I’m not asking for much here. One good freakin’ reliever and I’d be happy enough. I can even pass on a starter because I think there’s enough upside to be found in their current mix that I’m willing to gamble on it. The one way they can “save” this offseason is by going extension-crazy.
  22. Brock Beauchamp
    Indeed it is. Hedging against extra wins in case you don’t get as many wins as you’d hoped. Sounds like a pretty good way to prevent wins.
  23. Brock Beauchamp
    This offseason can best be summarized as “the sum adds up to less than the parts”. Individually, many (if not all) of these moves are fine but without a legit arm to go alongside Cruz’s legit bat, consider me underwhelmed (and more than a little pissed off, to be frank about it). Scrounging for deals is great and I commend a mid market front office for doing it... but if that’s ALL you do and come in way under budget doing it... no. Just no.
  24. Brock Beauchamp
    People on this forum have known me for up to 20 (omg has it really been that long?) years. Seriously, 20 years. And I've largely been a "show restraint because it doesn't hamper long-term plans" guy. My track record over those 20 years shows that extensively and consistently. But if this ****ing team shows up with a $110m payroll, I'm going to be furious. I don't give a rat's ass about your "strategy", I don't care about your "long-term vision", I want you to spend within 30 MILLION DOLLARS OF THE AVERAGE PAYROLL. As a Minneapolis resident, my dumb ass is paying for your (admittedly beautiful) ballpark every ****ing day I step outside my house. If you believe in the team, hand out front-loaded contracts to players under control. If you don't want to do that, hand out free agent contracts. I'm sick and goddamned tired of using the excuse of a flawed-but-good team to ride the middle all the time. Pick a side; you're good or you're not. Act accordingly.
  25. Brock Beauchamp
    Pretty much, yeah. Oh, Gardy... your lineups.
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