Brock Beauchamp
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Everything posted by Brock Beauchamp
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He’s cheaper but in cost per win, Donaldson + Maeda is likely the better value, especially given the plans to keep Graterol in the bullpen. Outside of Ryu’s standout 2019, Maeda and Ryu aren’t really that different (Ryu being slightly better but the gap isn’t large), except Ryu is older and goes down with an injury almost every season. -
The more I sit on this deal, the more I like it. Sure, I would have preferred more upside but that probably would have come with less control, as well. And that contract is outrageous. If Maeda fails, the Twins are out one Tyler Clippard contract per year for the next four years. And the more the Twins pay Maeda, the more they've gotten from him on the field, which makes it really easy to write those checks should they balloon to $10m a season. Really a good deal overall, barring Graterol being a true top-flight ace, which is really unlikely to happen. Even if Graterol becomes a shut down reliever for six seasons, there's an equally good chance Maeda becomes a shut down reliever (or better) for four years, making even that situation close to a wash.
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As usual, fantastic work, Matthew.
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I agree on the pitching side but I'll take that bet all day long on the hitting side. I suspect any one of the Twins or Sox hitters outpace either or both of the Cleveland hitters and I'd actually put 3-4:1 odds on it happening. If you put that many good young hitters in the same equation, at least one or two of them will truly step out and become great. I might even put even odds on no Cleveland hitter being one of the best two hitters in the ALC. And that's no disrespect to Lindor, as he's amazing... but in a single season with a ton of breakout hitters ready to happen, it's easy to get lost in the mix, even without an injury (which is always a factor).
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I hate watching one episode at a time so the draw to subscribe is pretty weak for me. All I now know is that I *will* watch it, just in a month or two.
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The first episode was so good!
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CBS is streaming the first episode of Picard for free on YouTube for a limited time. Love the first episode. It's almost exactly what I wanted to see.
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I'm giving it six weeks or so, that way I can subscribe and binge for $7.
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I generally agree but the show isn't thematically consistent between seasons and the approach in the first season was vastly superior to the second season. My wife and I really enjoyed the first season.
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The second season was a huge letdown after the first season, which was all about research and finding the problem, not going in full Rambo and taking out an entire country by himself. The entire point of Jack Ryan is *not* to be a part of the action, as he left that world to be an analyst. That analyst job is literally his character catalyst moment. He cares SO MUCH, which brings him into occasional action, but his actual purpose is to be the smartest person in the room and only take (mild) action after the system fails him.
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Some credit should be given to previous front offices for the acquisition of raw talent but given the track record from 2010-2016, it’s hard to envision those front offices turning that group of players into the players they are today. Max Kepler looks a hell of a lot different at 2 WAR than he does 4 WAR.
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It definitely makes sense to give him a shot in the Opening Day rotation, but that's not what the Twins are hinting right now... unless I missed something, they specifically mentioned the bullpen. I'm wholly on board with a transition from rotation to the bullpen to keep his innings down. That makes a lot of sense. The inverse makes a lot less sense given the construction of this roster.
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wut
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This is what I don't understand. If he's ready to start, put him in Minnesota. If he's not, well... the way this team is aligned, the first half of the season is going to be much more difficult to manage than the second half (in regards to the rotation), so I'm not really sure what they're doing here. Pretty early on, they'll get Pineda back. Hopefully after that, they'll get Hill. I'm not really sure how or where easing Graterol into the rotation works given the dynamics of this team.
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No, it's not. Trevor Plouffe, like Eddie Rosario in 2019, was a completely competent MLB starter. But the way the arbitration system works squeezes "competent starters" out of the mix in year 2/3 because it makes little sense to keep a 29 year old starter at $11m when you can go get a 31 year old starter for $6m. Trevor Plouffe has a career 8.2 fWAR. That's fine, that's what you would expect out of a decent MLB starter for several years but when arb clocks them in for 1.2 WAR at $11m, you cut bait. It's not an insult, it's just the financials of baseball because you can hit free agency and get a similar player for half the price.
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The reality is that Rosario wasn't very good last year. He was quite good the year before that. Don't promote lazy takes, no one wears them well. No one here wants Rosario to fail, as we are all Twins fans... but the reality of the situation is that he stumbled a bit last season, particularly on defense, and he's facing a big pay raise in the coming offseason. Cody is making a valid point: what will it take for the Rosario to earn that last year of arbitration when he's due something around $10m or more?
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Beat me to it. Besides, Johan wasn't close to Graterol at age 20. At age 20, Johan was a prospect lost in the Rule V draft, a prospect with upside but not enough upside to protect in the Astros system. It was only after a few stops and starts, a Cueller changeup, that Johan became the dominant force he was. Graterol is a different story. He's a 100mph pitcher with a good slider and a change/curve with potential. And he reached the majors at 20 years old while Santana only reached the majors at 21 out of necessity (the Rule V draft) and wasn't actually good until he was 23 years old. Not really the same situation... at all.
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I don’t like this much, at least not in 2020. The Twins’ bullpen is already pretty good, they don’t *need* Graterol. But that rotation sure could use a Graterol whether he arrives in 2021, 2022, or whenever.
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Yeah, White was coming off a "great" season where he played in all of 90-something games and posted a BABIP around .330, the highest he had posted since he played half his games on the bounce-happy turf of Olympic Stadium. While BABIP seems pretty primitive by today's standards, it was the type of thing smart teams were still paying attention to in the mid-2000s, which only illustrated how Ryan's front office was slipping behind the times (and continued to do so for the next decade). And no, this wasn't hindsight. All of this was discussed at great length before the 2006 season by the more sabr-inclined posters on the Elysian Fields and, later that season, BYTO.
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The Evolution of Trevor May
Brock Beauchamp replied to Cody Pirkl's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Oh, I didn’t realize we were talking about an extension today. I was acting as if May was a FA today and what he’d probably get. If the Twins pursue an extension before the season starts, definitely lop a couple of million off that AAV. -
The Evolution of Trevor May
Brock Beauchamp replied to Cody Pirkl's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I think that’s reasonable. Maybe 2/$14m gets it done, but I don’t think it will. Daniel Hudson just signed for 2/$11m and I’d *much* rather have the upside and age of May. No, May isn’t stellar but stellar relievers don’t sign 2/$15m deals. Good relievers sign that kind of deal and May is a good reliever. -
The Evolution of Trevor May
Brock Beauchamp replied to Cody Pirkl's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I think May will want something more in the range of $8-9m a year. -
Wow, I knew they were cheap but I couldn't believe this was true but it (mostly) is. Sportrac has them just over $100m in 2016 but the general idea of your post is correct, that the Rockies spent waaayyyyyy less than they should have spent until relatively recently.
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Garver was the worst defensive catcher in baseball in 2018, if I recall correctly. He was truly awful behind the plate when he arrived in Minnesota.
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OF/1B/DH depth is easy, catching depth is not. And I don't think the Twins actually have enough catching depth to really think about trading someone unless the perfect deal arises to make them want to do it. As for past catching depth, it's pretty hard to rival Mauer with Ramos in the minors. Garver may be good but he ain't Joe Mauer and while some of the prospects might be good, Ramos *at least* equalled them at the time. Or, if you want to go back a few more years, Pierzynski in Minnesota with Mauer in the minors. That may have literally been the best catching depth in the history of MLB. We're talking about a guy in MLB with 20+ career WAR, followed by a guy with close to 50 career WAR. Now that I think of it, the Twins have this weird ability to field some really nasty players at the ends of the field; centerfield and catcher. How does a team field so many good/great players at those two positions over 40 years while sucking pretty hard at fielding even decent players at the other seven spots?
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