Where Are The Prospects?

Before the 2014 season, the Twins generally had what was considered the top system in baseball. They were led by two consensus Top 10 prospects in all of baseball. Byron Buxton (19 at the time) had completed his first full season in professional baseball and had been named Baseball America’s 2013 minor league player of the year. He was the #1 prospect in all of baseball. He had hit a combined .334/.424/.520 (.944) with 19 doubles, 18 triples and 12 home runs.

Baseball America ranked then-20-year-old Miguel Sano number six overall. He was coming off of a season in which he hit a combined .280/.382/.610 (.992) with 30 doubles, five triples and 35 home runs between Ft. Myers and New Britain.

Then came the 2014 season. Miguel Sano missed the full season after having Tommy John surgery in the spring. Buxton was limited to just 31 games due to multiple injuries. It was essentially a lost season for both of them.

However, they both returned in 2015, starting the season in Chattanooga. Despite the lost development time Buxton was up with the Twins in June, and Sano was called up on July 1st. Buxton lost more time with injury and as the Twins acknowledged, he wasn’t ready and he struggled at the plate. Sano came to the team and was remarkable, finishing third in the AL Rookie of the Year vote despite playing just three months in the big leagues.

The Twins went into this season and handed Buxton the starting center field job despite him still not really being ready. Predictably, he struggled again, striking out in about half of his plate appearances. After 15 games, he was sent back down to Rochester, where he is now hitting .276/.344/.534 (.878) with four doubles, a triple and three home runs. He has three walks and seven strikeouts in 38 plate appearances.

Sano is a regular in the middle of the Minnesota Twins lineup. After posting a .916 OPS in 2016, his OPS is just 706 through the first 31 games this year. A sophomore slump? Maybe, though the season is just under 20% complete, so there is plenty of room for a resurgence.

The Twins status as the top minor league system was largely based on the top two prospects, and despite their 2016 struggles, both remain two of the most exciting players in baseball’s future. Buxton needs to cut down on the strikeouts, but with his speed and defense, he can be a valuable player with just minimal offensive improvement. But there is no reason to think that the 22-year-old can’t make the needed adjustments. What he needs is more time in AAA. With 14 games played with the Red Wings this year, he now has just 26 total games played at AAA. Patience is important. And Sano is still just 23, learning the game, learning a new position, learning pitchers, and (hopefully) learning how to take care of himself physically. Many may choose to give up on these prospects. I still think they both have multiple All-Star games in their future.

However, the Twins system was not solely based on two players. Here is a quick look at the rest of my personal 2014 Twins prospect rankings (with their 2013 team).

#3 - RHP Alex Meyer - New Britain

#4 - RHP Kohl Stewart - GCL/Elizabethton

#5 - 2B Eddie Rosario - Ft. Myers/New Britain

#6 - IF Jorge Polanco - Cedar Rapids

#7 - RHP Jose Berrios - Cedar Rapids

#8 - C Josmil Pinto - New Britain/Rochester/Minnesota

#9 - OF/1B Max Kepler - Cedar Rapids

#10 - Lewis Thorpe - GCL Twins

A quick glance of this list shows the volatility of prospect rankings, and yet this also shows why many still are excited about the Twins system. Look at how many of the top prospects then are top prospects now despite moving up 2 or 3 levels. Notice also how many of them were in Low-A Cedar Rapids just over two yeas ago.

Let’s start with Josmil Pinto. The Twins DFAd him a year ago, and after a couple of other DFAs, he is now with the Brewers AAA team. He had a strong showing that 2013 season in September but wasn’t able to stay healthy after that.

Alex Meyer was ranked #62 overall by Baseball America, but he was Top 30 in both MLB.com and Baseball Prospectus rankings. He went to Rochester in 2014 and was one of the league’s top starting pitchers. Then came 2015, a miserable year for Meyer. However, he is off to a strong start in 2016 and we can still be hopeful that the 26-year-old can rebound, maybe even as a starter.

Kohl Stewart had just been drafted and there was a lot of excitement. While his 2015 season left some question marks among prospect rankers, his 2016 season has improved his prospect status. Similarly, Lewis Thorpe was just coming off of a remarkable US debut season in the Gulf Coast League. Despite 2015 Tommy John surgery, his prospect status remains high.

Eddie Rosario was coming off of a terrific season which shadowed Sano’s. He was still playing second base, but it would be his last year there since Brian Dozier became a mainstay with the Twins.. While Sano and Buxton missed time in 2014 due to injury, Rosario missed 50 games to start 2014 due to a suspension. When he returned, he struggled at AA. However, in 2015, he came up to the Twins and had an impressive showing. He hit .267 with 18 doubles, 15 triples, 13 home runs, and 16 outfield assists. He’s off to a horrible start in 2016 which isn’t completely surprising with his complete inability to control the strike zone or willingness to not swing from time to time. He’s still only 24.

Jose Berrios, Jorge Polanco and Max Kepler all played the 2013 season in Cedar Rapids. Polanco had his first cup of coffee with the Twins in 2014 and has had about seven such calls since then. Kepler was the MVP of the AA Southern League in 2015 and debuted with the Twins last September. He’s already spent time with the Twins this year. And, Jose Berrios has taken off as a prospect. He has been the Twins minor league pitcher of the year the last two years and now has two big league starts under his belt. All three of these guys remain Top 10 Twins prospects, Top 100 overall prospects, and guys who should be a big part of the Twins future.

Prospects 11-20 (from my Top Prospect rankings)

#11 - OF Adam Brett Walker - Cedar Rapids

#12 - RHP Trevor May - New Britain/Rochester

#13 - LHP Stephen Gonsalves - GCL/Elizabethton

#14 - 3B Travis Harrison - Cedar Rapids

#15 - SS Danny Santana - New Britain

#16 - OF Amaurys Minier - GCL

#17 - DH/1B Kennys Vargas - Ft. Myers

#18 - RHP Ryan Eades - Elizabethton

#19 - RHP Felix Jorge - Elizabethton

#20 - SS Niko Goodrum - Cedar Rapids

Again, this list includes some intriguing names. Adam Brett Walker is on the 40-man roster and playing in Rochester.

Trevor May is in his second season with the Twins and their top reliever. Could he still start? Maybe, but if not, he can also be a dominant bullpen option for years to come.

Like Kohl Stewart, Gonsalves was just drafted and had an impressive pro debut in the rookie leagues. While Stewart was pushed quickly, Gonsalves was about a half-season behind. Now, they’re both at Ft. Myers, pitching well, and both could move up to Chattanooga at any time. Felix Jorge is also with the Miracle and pitching very well.

Danny Santana came up to the Twins and received votes in Rookie of the Year balloting. 2015 was very frustrating. Santana is likely somewhere in between. Right now, he is the team’s starting center fielder. One of the best athletes, he can play six positions and can provide value in that utility type of role.

Like Santana, Vargas came up in August of 2014 and hit nine home runs the rest of the season. The Twins gave him plenty of chances in 2015 but he was unable to get that type of production back. He went down to the minor leagues a couple of times and returned in September. He is currently hitting .217/.315/.308 (.625) with four doubles and two home runs in Rochester. That said, at 25, he still has potential to be a viable bench option and provide some punch off the bat.

Ryan Eades was also just drafted and threw a few innings in Elizabethton. He has certainly had his struggles, but a solid 2015 in Ft. Myers earned him a promotion to AA where he has had mixed results. But as Mike Berardino reported during spring training, he touched 97 a few times and does have a solid four-pitch mix, so he’s got a chance to be a back-of-the-rotation starter.

Goodrum is out right now with a stress reaction in his foot and will likely be out another month or so.

BUT WAIT, THERE’S MORE

That was a look at my Top 20 Twins prospects just over two years ago, and we’ve already seen some of these terrific prospects surface in the big leagues. However, in the last couple of drafts, the Twins have added even more talent. They have drafted Nick Gordon and Tyler Jay in the last two first rounds. Both have high ceilings.

They also added some flame-throwing relievers such as JT Chargois, Nick Burdi and Jake Reed who have already been in big league spring training. Mason Melotakis, Luke Bard, Michael Cederoth, Trevor Hildenberger, Brandon Peterson, Corey Williams and others could surface in the next couple of years too.

In addition to Murphy, Stuart Turner and Mitch Garver are in AA. Like Lewis Thorpe, Fernando Romero had Tommy John surgery and will be back soon.

VETERANS

While we are talking about the youth and the struggles of the youth, it is important to notice that the Twins roster includes many veterans (many of whom are struggling). Brian Dozier. Trevor Plouffe. Joe Mauer. Eduardo Nunez. Kurt Suzuki. Phil Hughes. Ervin Santana. Kyle Gibson. Ricky Nolasco. Kevin Jepsen. Glen Perkins. And Casey Fien and Tommy Milone have already been DFAd.

For the Twins to win in 2016, they needed two things. First, they needed some of the young players to take a step forward. However, they also needed strong performances from veterans. To this point in the season, Joe Mauer and Eduardo Nunez have been the two players who have performed well throughout the season.

The Twins need more from the rookies, but they also need more from the guys with Major League track records.

SUMMARY

Several years ago, I recall talking to Kyle Gibson. He was in A ball and I asked him what it meant to him to be considered the team’s top prospect. He basically said that it was a nice honor, but “being a prospect means you haven’t done anything yet.”

Major League Baseball is hard, and each level of the minor leagues gets gradually more difficult. Two years ago, the Twins had a lot of young prospects, but prospects that had a long way to go in terms of steps up and development.

That's why I've also often written that the reason it is so important to have as many prospects as possible. If you have 20 very good prospects, it likely means that one of them will become a perennial all-star, maybe two will become solid regulars, a handful will play a role on the big league team and several might get a cup of coffee.

So far, we have seen Danny Santana, Kennys Vargas, Miguel Sano, Byron Buxton, Michael Tonkin, Alex Meyer, Jorge Polanco and Jose Berrios in the big leagues. Some more than others. Also consider that Oswaldo Arcia just turned 25 yesterday. John Ryan Murphy is still just 24 years old.

They have come to the big leagues with mixed results.There have been guys who have struggled initially. There have been several who came up quickly and then struggled in year 2 when the league adjusted. At this point the players will need to make the adjustment back. Baseball, like life, is all about adjustments, and hopefully these young players will be able to do just that.

If there is a hope for the 2016 season, it is two-fold.

First, the veterans will need to step up and perform to their proven capabilities. Second, there is hope that as the season moves on, the prospects and young players can make some adjustments. That’s not to say that the Twins will jump back into playoff contention - so much would need to go perfectly for that to happen - but as a fan, we should want to see that happen to give us hope for 2017 and beyond.

So when someone asks, where are all the prospects, the overwhelming answer should be, "They're almost all still there."

Interested in learning more about the Minnesota Twins' top prospects? Check out our comprehensive top prospects list that includes up-to-date stats, articles and videos about every prospect, scouting reports, and more!