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    Tommy Milone: Making A Statement


    Seth Stohs

    When Tommy Milone was demoted to Rochester earlier this month, he was surprised and yet he said all the right things. He didn’t create a stir. He accepted the team’s decision and went to Rochester. He has, however, made a statement since he has been in Rochester. He has made a strong statement just how the Minnesota Twins would want him to, on the mound. On Monday night, he made his strongest statement yet.

    Image courtesy of Jonathan Dyer, USA TODAY

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    If this were a court of law, Milone and his representation would step to the podium with the following:

    Exhibit A: In his first Rochester start (May 8), he threw 6.1 shutout innings. He gave up five hits, walked two and struck out eight batters.

    Exhibit B: In his second Rochester start (May 13), he threw 8.0 shutout innings. He gave up three hits, walked none and struck out 12.

    Exhibit C: In his third Rochester start (May 18), he threw 9.0 scoreless innings, his first professional complete game shutout. He gave up six hits, walked none and struck out 13.

    Exhibit D: In his three Rochester starts (consolidated), he has thrown 23.1 scoreless innings. He has given up just 14 hits, walked two and struck out 33 batters.

    I would say that is a pretty compelling argument for a return to the big leagues for Tommy Milone. There is no doubt that he is a big league pitcher. Simply, there is no reason for the 28-year-old southpaw to be in the minor leagues. Yet, that is where he finds himself. For now, at least.

    Should Tommy Milone’s next start, Saturday or Sunday, be in a Red Wings uniform, or should it be at Target Field?

    Well, this isn’t a court of law. There isn’t a jury of his peers, teammates, fans, observers. That decision is up to the Minnesota Twins front office, Terry Ryan and manager Paul Molitor. What they need to determine first is what type of roster alteration it would take to bring back Tommy Milone.

    It’s easy to say that Tommy Milone deserves to be in the big leagues. What is more difficult is determining how to make it happen. There are many things to consider, so let’s dive into some of them.

    Phil Hughes

    The 29-year-old is currently 3-4 with a 4.76 ERA and a 1.29 ERA in eight starts. In 51 innings, he has walked five and struck out 35. Obviously after his historic 2014 season, he’s got a lot of leeway. That, and the fact that he’s signed through 2019. In other words, he’s not going anywhere.

    Kyle Gibson

    The lanky right-hander will be arbitration-eligible after 2016 season. He is under team control through 2019 season. A year ago, he went 13-12 with a 4.47 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP in a very inconsistent first full season in 2014. Through his first eight starts of the 2015 season, he is 3-3 with a 2.98 ERA. In 48.1 innings, he has walked 17 and struck out 19. Many question whether he can remain successful with such a low strikeout total. That’s fair, but right now is not the time to take him out of the starting rotation.

    Those two are certain to remain in the rotation. The next three could all be considered to take out of the rotation, though there are good, legitimate reasons to keep each in the rotation.

    Ricky Nolasco

    Nolasco was placed on the disabled list after his first start. After some time off, he made one rehab start in Cedar Rapids. Since his return, he has gone 3-0 with a 4.11 ERA despite batters hitting .310 off him. The numbers aren’t all that encouraging, and yet to the eye, he looked really good in his last start. The numbers don’t speak to the improvement, but in my opinion, the pitches he was throwing – especially a very good breaking ball – looked greatly improved. Then there is the financial side of the story. The 32-year-old Nolasco is owed another $25 million after this season. Because of that, the Twins should not shut the door on the possibility of him returning to what he was.

    Mike Pelfrey

    The 31-year-old is healthy for the first time in several years, and he is pitching quite well. He is 3-1 with a 3.23 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP in his seven starts. In 39 innings, he has walked 15 and struck out 17. His peripherals are not great, and like Gibson, it’s easy to wonder how sustainable his success may be. He is in the final year of his two year, $11 million contract. He began the season in the bullpen, though he didn’t pitch out of the bullpen at all because of Ervin Santana’s suspension. He’s got the nice numbers, but in his three May starts, he has failed to complete five innings twice.

    Trevor May

    We clamored for Trevor May to be promoted much of the first half of the 2014 season. He spent the final two months with the Twins last year. This spring, he was the one sent to Rochester out of spring training. Like Pelfrey in the bullpen, May never made a start for the Red Wings. When Nolasco went on the DL, May was summoned. The 25-year-old has pitched all right at times. Overall, he is 2-3 with a 5.15 ERA and a 1.47 WHIP in 36.2 innings in his seven starts. In his three May starts, he is 0-2 with a 6.06 ERA and opponents are hitting .309 off him with a .851 OPS.

    So What Should They Do?

    I frequently hear and read that the Twins should consider what is best for the team’s long-term future. In fact, I’m sure I’ve said that many times in recent years. However, at this point, I’m kind of tired of only thinking long-term. I want the team to keep winning now, and do what is best for the team now. That’s not to say “forget about the future”, just that it can’t be the lone factor.

    One thing we know is that Tommy Milone should be in the big leagues. Although the three battled it out in spring training, it appears that this decision really comes down to Milone, Mike Pelfrey and Trevor May. I see four possible scenarios:

    Scenario 1: Tommy Milone comes up to the big leagues to start, Trevor May optioned to Rochester.

    Scenario 2: Tommy Milone comes up to the big leagues to start, Mike Pelfrey goes to the bullpen.

    Scenario 3: Tommy Milone comes up to the big leagues to pitch out of the bullpen.

    Scenario 4: Tommy Milone remains in Rochester and continues to start.

    In my opinion, Scenario 3 really isn’t a good option. Scenario 4 may be the most likely scenario to happen, though it’s important to start thinking about MIlone coming up.

    What I think will happen? My thought is that Trevor May has the numbers to justify heading back to AAA Rochester to continue to work on the things that have worked for him in the big leagues. Still just 25, it would not hurt May.

    What I would probably do? It’s hard to know without being in the clubhouse or being privy to everything. However, I think that the Twins should do what they did this spring. I think that Tommy Milone should be in the rotation. I think that Mike Pelfrey can become a really good contributor out of the bullpen. I would stick with Trevor May in the rotation for the time being.

    Summary

    When a player feels wronged about being sent from the big leagues down to the minor leagues, they can handle it several ways. They can mope and not perform. They can complain through the media, or even request a trade. I think most would agree that the best way to handle the situation is to do exactly what Tommy Milone has done. He’s taken the disappointment and pitched better than anyone could have expected. He has forced the Twins' hand at this point.

    What will the Twins do?


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    But how do you explain his relative success at the MLB level?  

     

    He was ok for about 100 starts in a ballpark that very much favored him.  (To the tune of about .75 of a run better for his career)  

     

    Do some lefty junkballers find a way to have long and productive careers?  Sure, but not nearly as many as flame out after brief moments in the sun.  Working against Milone also is that his career numbers don't show him to be all that great against LHB either, which even makes the bullpen a dicey alternative.

     

    He's nice depth to have, but I think we're making too much out of what he's doing in AAA.  Not that Rochester is complaining I'm sure.

    Milone's K rate at Rochester is almost exactly 2x that of his MLB average of 6.4 K/9.

     

    He's pitching great now, and that's fantastic.  But upon a call up, he's going to have to get 6 additional outs now where the ball is put into play.  Even if contact is weakly induced, it's not going to stop Texas Leaguers, seeing-eye-singles, errors, sac flies, hitting behind the runners, fielder's choices or whatever kind of bizare fielding play Oswaldo Arcia might come up with next.

     

    87-MPH fastballs are just so rarely sustainable at the MLB level.

    Edited by nicksaviking

     

    Gaining an extra five wins from the bottom of the rotation means just as much as getting an extra five from the front, unless you're talking playoffs.  Getting more production from the back is certainly a lot cheaper, but it also requires making the right choices among a number of similar options.  Which is why this is important to get right.

     

     

     

    I can see your point. I guess I hadn't really thought there was any great likelihood of getting any more than maybe a couple wins difference between May and Milone, but you may be right. They seem pretty interchangeable to me, but they may be a lot less so than I'm capable of discerning.

    For some reason, Milone reminds me of a certain Mr Hendriks who lit up AAA but when at the bigs he was less than mediocre.

     

    Milone lead (and still does) the Twins' starters with 6.32 FIP this season.  He is fine where he is and if anyone is willing to take him for a borderline prospect, more power to the Twins.   May has a 3.39 FIP in the bigs and nothing to prove in AAA, and is more of part of the future than Milone, and unlike Milone, none of the other starters did anything to lose their job...

     

    For some reason, Milone reminds me of a certain Mr Hendriks who lit up AAA but when at the bigs he was less than mediocre.

     

     

     

    Liam Hendriks, like many other current and past ex-Twins is currently a Canadian refugee, and has revitalized his career as a RP for the Blue Jays:

     

    13 G 17.1 IP ERA 3.63 xFIP 2.92 SIERA 2.41 K/9 8.83 BB/9 1.56 H/9 5.7 BA .180

     

    Maybe there's hope for Milone, yet?

    Count me impressed by what Milone has done since his demotion. It's way too easy to simply say an experienced ML pitcher should dominate like that. Rehab starts or not, we've seen it doesn't just happen like that. He's working hard to prove a point and I comend him greatly for that!

     

    However, today, right now, I say don't promote him. Sucks for him, but I just don't think he's a reliever. And despite his Rochester success, there is just no justifiable reason to promote him at this time over any of the other Twins starters.

     

    Hughes is Hughes, quality, and like last year, starting a bit slow but seems to be rounding and gaining momentum. Talent and contract, you aren't messing around with him. Gibson is young, talented, has a bright future, is doing well despite also rounding, and no way he comes out. Nor should he.

     

    May? No way! The kid was ONE pitch away the other day from a 1run 7 IP performance. It was still a high quality start, the Twins still won, he pitched well, has outstanding ability and potential, seems to keep working and improving, and you shoot yourself in the foot with a shotgun if you pull him for any reason other than a bad, bad slump.

     

    The past couple of games, Nolasco hasn't made it through the 6th, but he's SO a ton without BB, won, flashed, and is owed money and time contractually. He's also owed patience due to injury. His OK career is that, solid and OK, not bad, and he shouldn't be dismissed. I still maintain the best case scenario is for a healthy Nolasco to produce and be traded at some point.

     

    That leaves Pelfrey. His career biography would state things like; injured, inconsistent, poor peripherals, disappointing. But he's healthy NOW and pitching well NOW. Is he really fully healthy, strong and developing? Or is he on a "flash" cycle? Odds and history say the latter. But who knows. And if you're riding a nag who is outperforming thoroughbreds, you don't put the horse down or send it to the glue factory just because it's a nag. You ride it as far as you can. I still believe Pelfrey will falter, is a better fit in the pen, can re-invent himself in the pen potentially, and carve out a nice niche worth real $. But for now, I don't know why you'd pull him for Milone.

     

    Besides, we're going to be overcrowded when July rolls around and Santana shows up. And that isn't even counting Meyer getting on track, Berrios continuing to heat up, or any other of the solid upper milb pitchers looking like they deserve a shot.

    May to the bullpen, if nothing else. And keep marketing Pelfrey every good start he gives you - he's not coming back for sure in 2016 and if we can get soemthing for him, to make up for what we have gotten out of him the past two years, the Twins should do so...thus freeing that spot.

     

    May coud be a solid long guy in the pen. Do we say goodbye to Duensing? How much leash does Stauffer have? Is Boyer the real thing (he is for now, so he is untouchable). But the Twins still need to make a couple of bullpen moves anyways. If we consider Duensing, Tonkin and Pressly as dead weight better sent elsewhere, what does that say about the state of the guys replacing them?

    Keep in mind that a replacement-level MLB player is actually a good AAA player. Veterans produce in AAA all the time despite not being very good; clubs keep them around in case of emergency. That's what Milone is. He has no place in the Twins rotation now or in the foreseeable future.




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