How Does ZiPS View the Twins’ Long-Term Value in the José Berríos Trade?

The Minnesota Twins made a bold move at the 2021 trade deadline, sending homegrown ace José Berríos to the Toronto Blue Jays in exchange for top prospects Austin Martin and Simeon Woods Richardson. Over three years later, the trade remains pivotal in both franchises' trajectories. With another season in the books, let's evaluate the trade's current and future impact, focusing on the contributions of Martin and Woods Richardson in 2024 and the broader context of Berríos's value to Toronto.

The Berríos Side of the Trade 
Berríos was an anchor in the Twins' rotation, making two All-Star appearances and consistently providing innings and durability. After the trade, Toronto locked him up with a seven-year, $131-million extension. Following the trade deadline in 2021, he was outstanding, providing Toronto with a 3.58 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP in 70 1/3 innings. He compiled 1.7 fWAR in two months' worth of starts, which was one of the better stretches of his career. 

Berríos struggled in 2022 during his first full season in Toronto, as something was off for a pitcher who had been one of the AL’s most consistent starters. In 172 innings, he combined for a 5.23 ERA with a 1.42 WHIP and -0.3 fWAR. He led all AL pitchers in hits allowed and total earned runs. The end of 2021 and the entire 2022 season were the years of team control Minnesota was trading away with Berríos, so he combined for 1.4 fWAR before he'd have otherwise become a free agent. 

Trading Berríos was a tough but necessary decision from the Twins' perspective. He wanted to be paid like a front-line starter, but that wouldn’t happen with the Twins. With the team out of contention in 2021, flipping him for controllable young talent fitted their long-term goals. However, the deal’s ultimate success hinges on the development and contributions of Martin and Woods Richardson.

Austin Martin’s 2024 Contributions and Future Outlook
Martin’s journey since the trade has been anything but linear. Once viewed as a high-floor, contact-oriented hitter with defensive versatility, he's been slowed by injuries and swing mechanics issues. Last season, Martin began impacting the big-league roster, despite some growing pains. In 93 games, he hit .253/.318/.352 with 20 extra-base hits and seven stolen bases.

Looking ahead, Martin’s ability to carve out a consistent role will be critical. The Twins value his versatility, and with further development, he could be a key piece as a utility player in their lineup for years. His chase rate, launch-angle sweet-spot rate, and Squared Up% were in the 85th percentile or higher, even though he didn’t qualify for the leaderboard. Questions remain about his ability to add power and sustain his offensive production, but his 2024 season showed he can make solid contact and get on base regularly.

FanGraphs’s Dan Szymborski used ZiPS to project Martin’s performance during his remaining years of team control. Martin is seen as a slightly below-average hitter with an OPS+ in the low 90s, while providing minimal WAR per season. If ZiPS holds true, Martin would combine for 3.3 fWAR (plus -0.2 fWAR from 2024, for a total of 3.1 fWAR). He would likely become modestly expensive late in his arc of team control; the Twins may non-tender him if his offensive performance doesn’t improve.   

Simeon Woods Richardson’s Contributions and Future Value
Woods Richardson also took significant strides in 2024 as he arguably saved the Twins’ starting rotation in the first half. In 16 first-half starts, he posted a 3.51 ERA, with a 1.15 WHIP and 2.96 strikeout-to-walk ratio. His second half saw a dip in his performance, though, as he ended the year with a 4.17 ERA and 1.29 WHIP over 133 2/3 innings, showcasing a refined slider that generated a 24% whiff rate. His ability to adjust to the big-league level made him a valuable asset in a pitching staff with multiple injuries.

The Twins envision Woods Richardson as a back-end starter, but he showed flashes of his potential upside. His fastball velocity ticked up last season, from sitting in the low 90s during his early career to over 93 mph last season. His uptick in velocity helped him rely less on his four-seamer, because his other pitches also had more velocity. His contributions in 2024 demonstrated why the Twins were willing to gamble on his upside.

Long-term, ZiPS views Woods Richardson as a league-average starter with over 120 innings pitched per season. That player type is valuable in a back-of-the-rotation role. SWR is projected to 9.4 fWAR from 2025-2030, to go with the 1.8 fWAR from 2024 to reach 11.2 fWAR. He was seen as the lesser prospect at the time of the trade, but he has developed to the point where he might produce the most long-term value. 

Trade Verdict and Long-Term Impact
Evaluating the trade nearly three years later, both teams have reasons to be satisfied. Toronto received a reliable starter in Berríos, whose extension ensured the trade wasn’t a short-term rental. Meanwhile, the Twins bolstered their system with two promising players who contributed at the MLB level in 2024.

The trade's ultimate verdict will depend on Martin and Woods Richardson’s continued development. If Martin can become a versatile utility player and Woods Richardson solidifies himself as a rotation fixture, the Twins could declare the deal a win. Conversely, if their growth stalls, the Blue Jays' decision to bet on Berríos’s stability might look wiser in hindsight.

As it stands, the trade underscores the high-risk, high-reward nature of deadline deals. For the Twins, the hope is that Martin and Woods Richardson represent key contributors to their next competitive window. For now, 2024 offered a glimpse of what could be a bright future and a reminder of why trading an established starter like Berríos can be worth the gamble.

How should the Twins view the Berríos trade? Can either club be declared the winner of the trade? Leave a comment and start the discussion.