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    White Sox Winning Winter Meetings Through Day 1


    Seth Stohs

    The Winter Meetings are always a fun time for baseball fans. If you follow twitter or MLB Trade Rumors, there are constantly updates throughout the week, at all hours of the day. There is no question that the Chicago White Sox won Day 1 of the Winter Meetings. Here is a look at what happened on Day 1 in terms of Twins news. (No, it will not be empty below.)

    Image courtesy of Jim Cowsert, USA Today

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    OVERVIEW

    The Winter Meetings were originally set up as a meeting for all minor league teams. Then major league teams started crashing the party and since then, it has become a media Mecca.

    Contrary to popular belief, it isn’t just a place where GMs meet with agents and other GMs. Front offices of the teams go to have meetings.

    That said, of course, all the teams are there. All the GMs are there. All the agents are there. There are meetings.

    However, how many of the rumors will turn into actual transactions during this week? A few will, and we’ll try to stay on top of everything here at Twins Daily.

    WHITE SOX ARE BUSY

    Earlier in the offseason, the White Sox signed 1B Adam LaRoche, and then they signed lefty reliever Zach Duke.

    Rumors throughout the night were that the White Sox and A’s were in serious discussions about Jeff Samardzija. Sox infielder Marcus Simien, who was a top 100 prospect in Baseball America a year ago, was one name mentioned. It’s hard for me to believe he would be the key piece to such a trade. I think the White Sox would need to give up a higher-ranking prospect to get Samardzija.

    Then as midnight approached, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweeted that the White Sox signed closer David Robertson for four years and $46 million. The long-time set- up man for Mariano Rivera finally got the opportunity to close last year. He turned in a solid season and got his big pay day.

    There are rumors that the White Sox still could be a player for third baseman Chase Headley.

    Teaming “Shark” with lefties Chris Sale and Jose Quintana certainly gives the South Siders some quality pitching.

    COLABELLO CLAIMED BY THE BLUE JAYS

    Late this morning, the Toronto Blue Jays announced that they had claimed first baseman Chris Colabello. He comes off the Twins 40-man roster, putting the roster at 39. It will be interesting to see what happens in the next couple of days. Were the Twins just trying to clear up a spot for a potential free agent signing? Were they just opening up a roster spot so that they can make a Rule 5 selection on Thursday? Could other players currently be on the waiver wire to create more roster spots so that the Twins could do both?

    Colabello’s story was (and remains) remarkable. The Twins signed him before the 2012 season out of independent baseball where he spent eight seasons. He made the New Britain roster and raked that whole season. In 2013, he was invited to big league spring training and became a hero for Team Italy in the World Baseball Classic. He was named the International League Rookie of the Year and MVP for his great play in AAA Rochester. In May, all that time spent culminated with his big league debut. And, of course, he made the Twins opening day roster. He was named the American League co-Player of the Month in April. Unfortunately, he was jammed on a pitch late in the month and had thumb problems that affected him the rest of the season. Even recently, he learned from an MRI that there was still inflammation.

    It’s a savvy move for the Blue Jays. The powerful Colabello showed that when healthy he can hit and be quite productive in the big leagues. The Blue Jays traded Adam Lind in the offseason to Milwaukee, but then they acquired first baseman Justin Smoak. Colabello could compete with another former Twins player, Danny Valencia, for right-handed platoon at-bats. The other thing is that Colabello still has an option year remaining so he can provide the Jays with powerful depth. Of course, seeing how Toronto has operated the last couple of seasons, it’s also possible that they could now try to sneak Colabello through waivers, too.

    OLIVA, KAAT FALL SHY OF COOPERSTOWN

    At 1:00 central time on Monday, the Hall of Fame gathered the media together in San Diego to tell them that the Veteran’s Committee had elected no one to the Hall of Fame. I think a press release might have done the job.

    For enshrinement, a player would have needed 12 of the 16 Veteran’s Committee members to vote for them. Tony Oliva and Dick Allen both received 11 votes. Jim Kaat received 10 votes.

    Can you imagine being one vote away from receiving baseball’s ultimate honor? One vote! Now, I have said many times in the past that I don’t think that Oliva or Kaat should be in the Hall of Fame, but whenever they are up for election again, I will hope like crazy that they make it.

    MASTERSON UPDATE

    1500 ESPN’s Darren Wolfson posted several tweets yesterday indicating that the Twins have been unable to meet with free agent starter Justin Masterson. It may be that his agent hasn’t been able to work out a time to talk to Terry Ryan. It’s also possible that Masterson just isn’t interested in the Twins.

    Listen, the reason that Masterson is appealing to many as a potential free agent acquisition is that he was coming off his age-29 season in which he posted a 7-9 record with a 5.88 ERA and a 1.63 WHIP between Cleveland and St. Louis. The thought was that he might want to sign a cheap, one-year deal with someone to regain market value, so why not the Twins?

    Part of the allure was that he has some upside and typically has eaten a lot of innings. However, since the hot stove league began, it’s been suggested by many that there are a lot of teams, likely well into double-digit teams, who are interested. That creates a bit of a bidding war. Frankly, it’s not a bidding war I would want to get into. His ERA+ in 2013 was 110, in 2012 it was 79, in 2011, it was 122, in 2010 it was 84 and in 2009 it was 94. That’s not the kind of guy you get into a bidding war over.

    OTHER FREE AGENTS OF NOTE

    LaVelle E. Neal of the Star Tribune posted throughout the day that the Twins have been quite active talking to agents for some free agent pitchers. That sounds good, but the four pitchers that he is linking the Twins with are Logan Ondrusek, Dustin McGowan, John Axford and Alexi Ogando. All four would be relief pitchers.

    None of those names are terribly exciting on a major league contract. I realize that the Twins can improve their bullpen. I just personally prefer going the minor league signing route or using starting pitchers who are not in the starting rotation. Then again, I’m good with anyone on a minor league contract.

    TERRY RYAN NOTES

    In his Monday media discussions, Terry Ryan indicated that he had no interest in the Toronto Blue Jays CEO/President position. He said he is from Minnesota, it’s where his family is and will remain. This is no surprise, of course, since Ryan had the opportunity to be the Blue Jays general manager in 2001 when the Twins were on the contraction chopping block. He could have left then but decided that he was staying.

    He also said that Ron Gardenhire is likely to take the 2015 year off and then determine what he wants to do in 2016. He will continue to have a standing job offer with the Twins.

    COMING SOON: MINNESOTA TWINS PROSPECT HANDBOOK 2015

    Much more will be coming throughout this week, but this year’s Twins Prospect Handbook will be available within a week, possibly even as early as Friday. Co-Authors Jeremy Nygaard, Cody Christie and I are waiting until after the Rule 5 draft to release the book so that we can add (or subtract) any players affected that day.

    This year’s Prospect Handbook (my seventh) is huge, and it’s packed with Twins minor league information. There are prospect profiles on approximately 150 Twins minor leaguers. Anyone from the Gulf Coast League through guys whose Rookie of the Year status remain. You’ll find stories on our choices for Starting Pitcher (JO Berrios), Relief Pitcher (Brandon Peterson), Hitter (Mitch Garver) and Manager (Doug Mientkiewicz) of the Year. Jeremy takes a look at the Twins draft in 2014 and looks ahead to the 2015 draft when the Twins have the sixth selection. Cody took a look at the injuries. We also had articles from Steve Buhr, Eric Pleiss and former Twins minor leaguer AJ Pettersen.

    I’m also excited to say that St. Paul Pioneer Press’s Mike Berardino wrote a terrific foreword for the book. We also want to thank Linwood Ferguson for his pictures of the Ft. Myers players and Steve Buhr for pictures from Cedar Rapids.

    As I mentioned, there will be much more information coming in the next few days. If you’re looking for a Christmas gift or stocking stuffer, consider getting a copy of the 2015 Minnesota Twins Prospect Handbook.

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    WHAT WILL HAPPEN ON DAY 2?

    The White Sox won Day 1 of the Winter Meetings in San Diego. What will happen on Day 2? Will the Twins make any news?

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    Marek Houston

    Cedar Rapids Kernels - A+, SS
    The 22-year-old went 2-for-5 on Friday night, his fourth straight multi-hit game. Heading into the week, he was hitting .246/.328/.404 (.732). Four games later, he is hitting .303/.361/.447 (.808).

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    Do you think it would be possible for a 73 win team to sign five players, adding $52.5M to next seasons payroll and not improve?  I mean they could have signed 4 Nolasco's and every one theoretically could drop off the career norms, but it would be extremely unlikely for that to happen.  Clearly they have improved.  But every single decision is risky, they are over-paying, and adding 30+ somethings, many coming off career years.  These are not the type of decisions that should scare us at all.

     

    unlike signing Nolasco, Hunter, and Santana?

    unlike signing Nolasco, Hunter, and Santana?

     

    Well Hunter was signed to give pep talks and run over catchers.  I honestly don't think the Twins expect much, if any production out of him.  Of course they won't say that.

     

    So Ervin and Nolasco, two pitchers who AVERAGE, not career year, who average 4.17 and 4.30 ERA's.  That only gets you to about $26M and clearly would improve the Twins.  Ervin has averaged 1.7 WAR per season, Nolasco 1.2.  So we have added 3 wins.  Halfway there. Still have $26M to spend.

     

    If we get the 2008 Ricky 4.8 WAR and 2010 or 2011 Ervin at 3 WAR, we are really cruising.  Added 7.8 WAR. They are replacing negative WAR guys. Let's call it 10 wins with half the money still left.

    Edited by tobi0040

    I thought the issue was the Sox were signing guys over 30?

     

    If you are pencilling in players at any age basec on their best season in most cases to sum up the WAR.  I should be able to at least pencil career averages on the other side of the ledger.  Age is part of the issue.  the other part is they are adding a ton of payroll and are not a contending team and basically paying them all based on peak production.

     

    History has not been kind to these types of decisions and the scenario to 90 wins assumes they all pan out. On top of other guys currently on their team repeating great years and staying healthy.

    Edited by tobi0040

    Just one prediction from ESPN's Schoenfeld.  The comment at the end about raising the division flag relates to the title (the path towards a division title for each team. 

     

    White Sox 78 wins (5 more wins).   Twins 76. 

     

    http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/53956/path-to-the-playoffs-al-central

    I thought the issue was the Sox were signing guys over 30?

     

    I'm not a fan of their moves individually.  I guess if you're going to go for it, you might as well not half ass it though. The White Sox attempted to fix most of their major holes, including getting a starting pitcher and corner outfielder, both of whom are better players than the Twins signed.  I don't think it will work out for them, but at least no deals were longer than three years. 

    Whoa!  The Sox just signed Brad Penney!!!  Start printing playoff tickets!

     

    As a long-time Chicago-area resident, I just don't understand them.  They always seem to be fine-tuning to make sure they end up in second or third place, except when everything broke right and they won the Series.  They hang on to players for puzzling reasons, they'll empty their farm system at the drop of a hat, they are always kind of old...I never feel like they know what they are doing, they just cast about for ideas.  I don't think Ventura's much of a manager, but he's a Reinsdorf favorite so he's probably here for life, just like their goofball broadcasters.  It feels kind of pleasantly dysfunctional, sort of like the Cubs were but without the lovable loser stuff.  Perhaps their goal was to always have a better record than the Cubs.  Now it might not happen, so the new plan is Buy Everyone.  Including Brad Penney.

    Whoa!  The Sox just signed Brad Penney!!!  Start printing playoff tickets!

     

    As a long-time Chicago-area resident, I just don't understand them.  They always seem to be fine-tuning to make sure they end up in second or third place, except when everything broke right and they won the Series.  They hang on to players for puzzling reasons, they'll empty their farm system at the drop of a hat, they are always kind of old...I never feel like they know what they are doing, they just cast about for ideas.  I don't think Ventura's much of a manager, but he's a Reinsdorf favorite so he's probably here for life, just like their goofball broadcasters.  It feels kind of pleasantly dysfunctional, sort of like the Cubs were but without the lovable loser stuff.  Perhaps their goal was to always have a better record than the Cubs.  Now it might not happen, so the new plan is Buy Everyone.  Including Brad Penney.

     

    This is a reflection of how every Sox fan I know feels about their team.  The "grass is greener on the other side" version some here are longing for is precisely that.  Not that I don't envy and like many of the things they do, it just seems sexier to us because it's the opposite of what we do.

    I am puzzled by the attacks on the WS.  They spent to add major leaguers to a 4th place team that was struggling in ticket sales (and likely media ratings) to provide more entertainment to their fans--with the expectation that "they will return to the fold."  Is the carping due to the lame effort by the Twins FO to improve their product?--and thus plain jealousy?  Because whatever amount of money the WS spend is irrelevant to Twins fans.

     

    As an aside I wonder how much the WS activity since the Winter Meetings affected the Twins decision to sign Santana?  I'm thinking the effect on the FO was large.

    I am puzzled by the attacks on the WS.  They spent to add major leaguers to a 4th place team that was struggling in ticket sales (and likely media ratings) to provide more entertainment to their fans--with the expectation that "they will return to the fold."  Is the carping due to the lame effort by the Twins FO to improve their product?--and thus plain jealousy?  Because whatever amount of money the WS spend is irrelevant to Twins fans.

     

    As an aside I wonder how much the WS activity since the Winter Meetings affected the Twins decision to sign Santana?  I'm thinking the effect on the FO was large.

     

    I'm personally not attacking the Sox (though the best days of summer are the days the Twins beat them).  I just think that whatever they do isn't likely to work out, partly because they will probably do the opposite thing at the worst possible time.  All these moves make some sense to me, more or less, and I'm impressed by what they've gotten, but I just feel confident that they will still find a way to screw it up before the season is over.

     

    It's funny, as a Twins fan living in the area for 25 years, I just don't know many people who care about the Sox.  Even going to a game there I'm more likely to run into the young professionals there to drink than people who actually care about the team.  The TV ratings are completely in the toilet, and this probably won't help.  Despite winning the Series in the very recent past, there's just no passion.  Maybe there is on the south side, but I don't get that sense.  Even Chris Sale doesn't draw a big crowd.

     

    Still...Brad Penney??

    Comparing what Chicago has done to what the Twins have done....LaRoche replaces Adam Dunn so not a big upgrade.  The other signings are because Smardjiza knock out their worst starter like Santana does for us only our worst starter was way worse than theirs so Santana is a bigger upgrade for us then Smardijiza was for Chicago.  Cabrera has 70 more OBP then the OF he replaces which is huge cause they really need OBP guys and Hunter basically replaces the offense of Willingham and Kubel with slight improvement.  Chicago's bullpen was a disaster last year so that is really improved for next year.  Chicago doesn't have much depth and they are reconstructed as a win now team.  They have a terrible farm system and IMO are in danger of becoming what the Pirates were for a long time a team close to .500 with no where to go.

    Huh?

     

    Dunn 2014 WAR 0.3

    LaRoche 2014 WAR 2.2

    I'm avoiding the rest of this thread, but have to point out that is a poor and lazy utilization of WAR.

     

    Edit: LaRoche appears to be taking over Dunn's spot as primary DH / occasional 1B. Simply comparing their offense would be more appropriate.

    Last 3 seasons, average wRC+:

    Dunn = 111

    LaRoche = 118

    Edited by jay

    I'm avoiding the rest of this thread, but have to point out that is a poor and lazy utilization of WAR.

    How so?  It was short, I suppose, but everyone and his dog knows the Dunn has been a pretty poor player lately.

     

    If you want to be more verbose, the original poster's Dunn vs LaRoche comparison wasn't really accurate either -- LaRoche will likely be replacing Abreu at first base, with Abreu replacing Dunn at DH.

    I'm avoiding the rest of this thread, but have to point out that is a poor and lazy utilization of WAR.

     

    Edit: LaRoche appears to be taking over Dunn's spot as primary DH / occasional 1B. Simply comparing their offense would be more appropriate.

    Last 3 seasons, average wRC+:

    Dunn = 111

    LaRoche = 118

     

    A team going for it in the big way the Sox are will bow to the inevitable and end up giving LaRoche at least half of the starts at First Base, and likely more... which is how I'm basing my WAR evaluation... LaRoche is a far better defender than Abreu.  LaRoche desperately wants to play in the field,  I'm betting that the facts and his pressing the issue results in him ending up with more games than Abreu and plays at least 100 in the field, which was the essential point on why WAR is extremely relevant when comparing Dunn, Abreu and LaRoche.

    Edited by jokin

    Only if you fail to consider all of the assumptions in coming to the conclusion.

     

    I'm making no claim on the point.  I like the Laroche signing and think he'll be a good player for them.

     

    That doesn't change the fact that comparing one year of WAR data for two players is just a fundamental misuse of the stat.

    Edited by TheLeviathan

    I'm making no claim on the point.  I like the Laroche signing and think he'll be a good player for them.

     

    That doesn't change the fact that comparing one year of WAR data for two players is just a fundamental misuse of the stat.

     

    Fundamentally speaking, LaRoche has been a much better player over the last 3 years, in the field and at the plate...

     

    Adam Dunn oWAR for the last 3 years--- 1.9

    Adam LaRoche oWAR for the last 3 years-- 6.3

    That doesn't change the fact that comparing one year of WAR data for two players is just a fundamental misuse of the stat.

    Feel free to expand the sample, it will not tell you that Dunn is any better.  The poster was quite obviously using shorthand, not "fundamentally misusing the stat."

    Fundamentally speaking, LaRoche has been a much better player over the last 3 years, in the field and at the plate...

     

    Adam Dunn oWAR for the last 3 years--- 1.9

    Adam LaRoche oWAR for the last 3 years-- 6.3

     

    There you go, now you used the stat correctly.  And I agree, Laroche is a better player.  I didn't need convincing, I just found it amusing to see WAR used incorrectly again after being reassured everyone knows how to use it.

     

    It's not good short-hand.  In fact, WAR is AWFUL short-hand.

    It's not good short-hand.  In fact, WAR is AWFUL short-hand.

    In this case, though, the shorthand felt so obvious.  It seemed pretty clear that the poster was NOT hiding/ignoring earlier WAR totals, just using the 2014 ones because they were pretty representative of earlier ones (if you have any familiarity with Dunn, and Twins fans should, he's been responsible for great gusts of wind across our state the past few years :) ).

    Fundamentally speaking, LaRoche has been a much better player over the last 3 years, in the field and at the plate...

     

    Adam Dunn oWAR for the last 3 years--- 1.9

    Adam LaRoche oWAR for the last 3 years-- 6.3

    oWAR includes the positional adjustment, which probably isn't appropriate here.

     

    Rbat would be what you want (or wRC+, or even OPS+).  Although I agree Rfield is probably a worthy consideration here too, as bad as Dunn was in that regard even in limited play (and as poor as Abreu was in that mark last year).

    oWAR includes the positional adjustment, which probably isn't appropriate here.

     

    Rbat would be what you want (or wRC+, or even OPS+).  Although I agree Rfield is probably a worthy consideration here too, as bad as Dunn was in that regard even in limited play (and as poor as Abreu was in that mark last year).

     

    And that's the point I was trying to make originally to Brandon (shorthand version)---> LaRoche for Dunn (and replacing Abreu for a significant chunk of defensive reps), is not a wash, but a pretty decent upgrade.

    The Sox were bad.

     

    They spent money, and marginal prospects to get better.

     

    Somehow, that's a bad thing.

    Even though I'm quoting mike's post in this, this goes out to everyone.  Please stop with these kinds of posts.  This kind of marginalizing is really getting old, and it's coming from both sides of this argument.  Some like the Sox' strategy, others do not.  So what.  That's what discussion is for.  But if discussion comes down to quibbling over nits and stats and marginalizing posts in order to show your 'disdain' for an opposite point of view, maybe it's time to move on.  This thread has gone about as far as it can go and the wall is now thoroughly beaten.  If you don't have anything new to say, but just want to get in the last word, then just stop.  If all you want to do is 'win' your argument, stop.  Think.  Move on.




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