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    White Sox Winning Winter Meetings Through Day 1


    Seth Stohs
    Image courtesy of Jim Cowsert, USA Today

    Twins Video

    The Winter Meetings are always a fun time for baseball fans. If you follow twitter or MLB Trade Rumors, there are constantly updates throughout the week, at all hours of the day. There is no question that the Chicago White Sox won Day 1 of the Winter Meetings. Here is a look at what happened on Day 1 in terms of Twins news. (No, it will not be empty below.)

    OVERVIEW

    The Winter Meetings were originally set up as a meeting for all minor league teams. Then major league teams started crashing the party and since then, it has become a media Mecca.

    Contrary to popular belief, it isn’t just a place where GMs meet with agents and other GMs. Front offices of the teams go to have meetings.

    That said, of course, all the teams are there. All the GMs are there. All the agents are there. There are meetings.

    However, how many of the rumors will turn into actual transactions during this week? A few will, and we’ll try to stay on top of everything here at Twins Daily.

    WHITE SOX ARE BUSY

    Earlier in the offseason, the White Sox signed 1B Adam LaRoche, and then they signed lefty reliever Zach Duke.

    Rumors throughout the night were that the White Sox and A’s were in serious discussions about Jeff Samardzija. Sox infielder Marcus Simien, who was a top 100 prospect in Baseball America a year ago, was one name mentioned. It’s hard for me to believe he would be the key piece to such a trade. I think the White Sox would need to give up a higher-ranking prospect to get Samardzija.

    Then as midnight approached, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweeted that the White Sox signed closer David Robertson for four years and $46 million. The long-time set- up man for Mariano Rivera finally got the opportunity to close last year. He turned in a solid season and got his big pay day.

    There are rumors that the White Sox still could be a player for third baseman Chase Headley.

    Teaming “Shark” with lefties Chris Sale and Jose Quintana certainly gives the South Siders some quality pitching.

    COLABELLO CLAIMED BY THE BLUE JAYS

    Late this morning, the Toronto Blue Jays announced that they had claimed first baseman Chris Colabello. He comes off the Twins 40-man roster, putting the roster at 39. It will be interesting to see what happens in the next couple of days. Were the Twins just trying to clear up a spot for a potential free agent signing? Were they just opening up a roster spot so that they can make a Rule 5 selection on Thursday? Could other players currently be on the waiver wire to create more roster spots so that the Twins could do both?

    Colabello’s story was (and remains) remarkable. The Twins signed him before the 2012 season out of independent baseball where he spent eight seasons. He made the New Britain roster and raked that whole season. In 2013, he was invited to big league spring training and became a hero for Team Italy in the World Baseball Classic. He was named the International League Rookie of the Year and MVP for his great play in AAA Rochester. In May, all that time spent culminated with his big league debut. And, of course, he made the Twins opening day roster. He was named the American League co-Player of the Month in April. Unfortunately, he was jammed on a pitch late in the month and had thumb problems that affected him the rest of the season. Even recently, he learned from an MRI that there was still inflammation.

    It’s a savvy move for the Blue Jays. The powerful Colabello showed that when healthy he can hit and be quite productive in the big leagues. The Blue Jays traded Adam Lind in the offseason to Milwaukee, but then they acquired first baseman Justin Smoak. Colabello could compete with another former Twins player, Danny Valencia, for right-handed platoon at-bats. The other thing is that Colabello still has an option year remaining so he can provide the Jays with powerful depth. Of course, seeing how Toronto has operated the last couple of seasons, it’s also possible that they could now try to sneak Colabello through waivers, too.

    OLIVA, KAAT FALL SHY OF COOPERSTOWN

    At 1:00 central time on Monday, the Hall of Fame gathered the media together in San Diego to tell them that the Veteran’s Committee had elected no one to the Hall of Fame. I think a press release might have done the job.

    For enshrinement, a player would have needed 12 of the 16 Veteran’s Committee members to vote for them. Tony Oliva and Dick Allen both received 11 votes. Jim Kaat received 10 votes.

    Can you imagine being one vote away from receiving baseball’s ultimate honor? One vote! Now, I have said many times in the past that I don’t think that Oliva or Kaat should be in the Hall of Fame, but whenever they are up for election again, I will hope like crazy that they make it.

    MASTERSON UPDATE

    1500 ESPN’s Darren Wolfson posted several tweets yesterday indicating that the Twins have been unable to meet with free agent starter Justin Masterson. It may be that his agent hasn’t been able to work out a time to talk to Terry Ryan. It’s also possible that Masterson just isn’t interested in the Twins.

    Listen, the reason that Masterson is appealing to many as a potential free agent acquisition is that he was coming off his age-29 season in which he posted a 7-9 record with a 5.88 ERA and a 1.63 WHIP between Cleveland and St. Louis. The thought was that he might want to sign a cheap, one-year deal with someone to regain market value, so why not the Twins?

    Part of the allure was that he has some upside and typically has eaten a lot of innings. However, since the hot stove league began, it’s been suggested by many that there are a lot of teams, likely well into double-digit teams, who are interested. That creates a bit of a bidding war. Frankly, it’s not a bidding war I would want to get into. His ERA+ in 2013 was 110, in 2012 it was 79, in 2011, it was 122, in 2010 it was 84 and in 2009 it was 94. That’s not the kind of guy you get into a bidding war over.

    OTHER FREE AGENTS OF NOTE

    LaVelle E. Neal of the Star Tribune posted throughout the day that the Twins have been quite active talking to agents for some free agent pitchers. That sounds good, but the four pitchers that he is linking the Twins with are Logan Ondrusek, Dustin McGowan, John Axford and Alexi Ogando. All four would be relief pitchers.

    None of those names are terribly exciting on a major league contract. I realize that the Twins can improve their bullpen. I just personally prefer going the minor league signing route or using starting pitchers who are not in the starting rotation. Then again, I’m good with anyone on a minor league contract.

    TERRY RYAN NOTES

    In his Monday media discussions, Terry Ryan indicated that he had no interest in the Toronto Blue Jays CEO/President position. He said he is from Minnesota, it’s where his family is and will remain. This is no surprise, of course, since Ryan had the opportunity to be the Blue Jays general manager in 2001 when the Twins were on the contraction chopping block. He could have left then but decided that he was staying.

    He also said that Ron Gardenhire is likely to take the 2015 year off and then determine what he wants to do in 2016. He will continue to have a standing job offer with the Twins.

    COMING SOON: MINNESOTA TWINS PROSPECT HANDBOOK 2015

    Much more will be coming throughout this week, but this year’s Twins Prospect Handbook will be available within a week, possibly even as early as Friday. Co-Authors Jeremy Nygaard, Cody Christie and I are waiting until after the Rule 5 draft to release the book so that we can add (or subtract) any players affected that day.

    This year’s Prospect Handbook (my seventh) is huge, and it’s packed with Twins minor league information. There are prospect profiles on approximately 150 Twins minor leaguers. Anyone from the Gulf Coast League through guys whose Rookie of the Year status remain. You’ll find stories on our choices for Starting Pitcher (JO Berrios), Relief Pitcher (Brandon Peterson), Hitter (Mitch Garver) and Manager (Doug Mientkiewicz) of the Year. Jeremy takes a look at the Twins draft in 2014 and looks ahead to the 2015 draft when the Twins have the sixth selection. Cody took a look at the injuries. We also had articles from Steve Buhr, Eric Pleiss and former Twins minor leaguer AJ Pettersen.

    I’m also excited to say that St. Paul Pioneer Press’s Mike Berardino wrote a terrific foreword for the book. We also want to thank Linwood Ferguson for his pictures of the Ft. Myers players and Steve Buhr for pictures from Cedar Rapids.

    As I mentioned, there will be much more information coming in the next few days. If you’re looking for a Christmas gift or stocking stuffer, consider getting a copy of the 2015 Minnesota Twins Prospect Handbook.

    ccs-19-0-13266000-1418107858_thumb.jpg

    WHAT WILL HAPPEN ON DAY 2?

    The White Sox won Day 1 of the Winter Meetings in San Diego. What will happen on Day 2? Will the Twins make any news?


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    The White Sox aren't great every year because very few baseball teams are, not because their approach is obviously lacking some grand vision of sustained success.

     

     

    You think 25 years of yo-yoing and "nearly good enough" is just baseball randomness?  The more you claim to be neutral the less you sound it.

     

    The Sox problem is that they are constantly patching on the fly and by the very nature of how things come available and how patches work - they often flop or have a short shelf life.  Here are just a few examples:

     

    1) In order to not have a sustained rebuild they rushed Gordon Beckham to the majors.

    2) They patch their lineup with the likes of Kotsay and Pierre because that's the best they can do

    3) No farm depth means they trot out a group of hitters in 2011 that are impressively awful with no alternatives

    4)  They give Keppinger 500 ABs at a Puntonian level of production

     

    I could go on.  The truth is that the Sox have a problem getting over the hump because they constantly exhaust themselves trying to stay semi-relevant.  Their patching isn't sustainable because you often have to invest more resources to do what they do.  The Twins strategy requires the investment of time and a combination of luck and good scouting.

     

    The Twins could learn a few things from the way the Sox use their resources and the Sox could learn a few things about avoiding the constant depletion of theirs.  That's how you find sustainable success, but to claim this notion that the Sox should be commended for staying relevant is like commending the Washington Generals for always being the one mentioned with the Globetrotters.

     

    1) In order to have a sustained rebuild they rushed Aaron Hicks to the majors.

    2) They patch their lineup with the likes of Rondell White and that Japanese fellow I can't bear to name because that's the best they can do

    3) No farm depth means they trot out a group of pitchers in 2011, 12, 13, and 14 that are impressively awful with no alternatives

    4)  They give Punto 500 ABs at a Puntonian level of production

     

    .

    Sorry, Levi...I couldn't resist.

    You think 25 years of yo-yoing and "nearly good enough" is just baseball randomness?  The more you claim to be neutral the less you sound it.

     

    The Sox problem is that they are constantly patching on the fly and by the very nature of how things come available and how patches work - they often flop or have a short shelf life.  Here are just a few examples:

     

    1) In order to not have a sustained rebuild they rushed Gordon Beckham to the majors.

    2) They patch their lineup with the likes of Kotsay and Pierre because that's the best they can do

    3) No farm depth means they trot out a group of hitters in 2011 that are impressively awful with no alternatives

    4)  They give Keppinger 500 ABs at a Puntonian level of production

     

    I could go on.  The truth is that the Sox have a problem getting over the hump because they constantly exhaust themselves trying to stay semi-relevant.  Their patching isn't sustainable because you often have to invest more resources to do what they do.  The Twins strategy requires the investment of time and a combination of luck and good scouting.

     

    The Twins could learn a few things from the way the Sox use their resources and the Sox could learn a few things about avoiding the constant depletion of theirs.  That's how you find sustainable success, but to claim this notion that the Sox should be commended for staying relevant is like commending the Washington Generals for always being the one mentioned with the Globetrotters.

    You lost me once you claimed Beckham was rushed to the majors. He had success in the minors and had multiple years to show what he was capable of at the major league level. . Beckham had a good first year in the majors. He regressed and years later did not get back to previous levels. There is no rushing because spending only a short time in the minors.

    You lost me once you claimed Beckham was rushed to the majors. He had success in the minors and had multiple years to show what he was capable of at the major league level. . Beckham had a good first year in the majors. He regressed and years later did not get back to previous levels. There is no rushing because spending only a short time in the minors.

    He had 300 at bats in the minors total, I would call that rushing.  Especially since another 80 of those came AFTER his debut.

    Edited by TheLeviathan

    Sorry, Levi...I couldn't resist.

    No I totally agree with the problems the Twins' method has had as well. I have repeatedly stated they have roughly equal outcomes. What bugs me is pedestalizing a White Sox method that has the same results.

    It is expensive to sign FAs.........if you are always saying "it is too expensive", you better have a farm system that produces, all the time, or you end up with Jason Tyner as your DH......and 4 or more years of 90+ loss seasons.

     

    But giving a guy that has not averaged 100 IP a year over 10 years, a four year deal is wreckless.   His ERA+ the last two years have been 94 and 85.

    But giving a guy that has not averaged 100 IP a year over 10 years, a four year deal is wreckless.   His ERA+ the last two years have been 94 and 85.

     

    Like I said, every signing so far has been met here with, "that's too much money" or "that's too many years" or "I wouldn't sign that guy he's not good"......well, apparently, a hug number of MLB teams disagree.

    Okay, even assuming that's accurate...

    I'd still probably say I'd rather take concentrated boom and full out bust to rebuild than spread out boom and hoping patchwork works out right to be in contention.

    Actually, I kinda like "full out bust" too (no raunchy jokes please :) ) because the tickets are cheap and plentiful.

     

    But from a fan standpoint, I find it an odd preference.  The majority of White Sox seasons weren't just "hope for contention" -- they actually were in contention to varying degrees, from preseason probably into August if not later.

     

    Just to put them into some more numbers.

     

    Last 25 season finishes

     

    Twins - 2 ALCS appearances, 1 WS win

    White Sox - 2 ALCS appearances, 1 WS win

     

    Twins 1st - 7

    White Sox 1st - 5

     

    Twins 2nd - 3

    White Sox 2nd - 11

     

    Twins 3rd - 2

    White Sox 3rd - 6

     

    Twins 4th or 5th (last) - 13, or 52%

    White Sox 4th or 5th (last) - 3, or 12%

     

    Plenty of room to improve either approach, of course, but preferring the Twins result is taking on an awful lot of terrible baseball for just two more first place finishes (and first round exits).  (FWIW, the White Sox also have the higher single-season "peak" at 99 wins, plus another season (1994) equalling the Twins best winning percentage of the period.)

     

    Now, the last 2 seasons have closed the gap a little bit, and future seasons will too, but I am trying to stay out of forecasting and avoid too much recency bias in this exercise.

    Another thing is to consider how the "bust" periods happen.  I think the Twins "bust" periods have initially been the result of some big mistakes, rather than a deliberate part of some master plan to return to "boom" periods.

     

    So all I am really doing is giving the White Sox a little extra credit for avoiding those kind of mistakes (or at least minimizing their long-term effects, if they indeed recover from their 2013-2014 performances).  

     

    Obviously the two teams still rank pretty close together by most measures, below the perennial contenders and ahead of the perennial losers.

    Just for fun, I wonder what the Twins 25 man roster would look like if they said "screw it" and made the entirety of their minor league talent available for trade in an effort to win in the next 5 years.

     

    Buxton. Sano. Berrios. Meyer. Stewart..... Everyone is available.

     

    Guys already at in the majors could be available too (Vargas, Arcia, Dozier, Santana, etc)

    Edited by amjgt

    Just for fun, I wonder what the Twins 25 man roster would look like if they said "screw it" and made the entirely of their minor league talent available for trade in an effort to win in the next 5 years.

     

    Buxton. Sano. Berrios. Meyer. Stewart..... Everyone is available.

     

    Guys already at in the majors could be available too (Vargas, Arcia, Dozier, Santana, etc)

     

    The issue is payroll would likely jump to $140M and we would have no farm system.  We would be Tigers-lite.

    Another thing is to consider how the "bust" periods happen.  I think the Twins "bust" periods have initially been the result of some big mistakes, rather than a deliberate part of some master plan to return to "boom" periods.

     

    Definitely. 

     

    My issue with directly comparing the results is that it makes the assumption that their capacity is apples-to-apples, when it's not.  The White Sox payroll has outpaced the Twins every single year since 1998 with the single exception of 2003 -- often by a significant margin. 

     

    We wouldn't try to compare the merits of the Twins approach to Yankees approach based on their results due to their significant financial disparities.  It's less extreme with the White Sox, but that same concept is very relevant.  For the additional resources the White Sox have expended, you'd expect to see a greater and noticeable separation in their results.

    The issue is payroll would likely jump to $140M and we would have no farm system.  We would be Tigers-lite.

     

    a) I'm not advocating it, just wondering out loud.

     

    b ) Would being Tigers-like be so bad? (I realize you said "lite", but I'm not sure we would be inferior to the Tigers)

    Edited by amjgt

    a) I'm not advocating it, just wondering out loud.

     

    b ) Would being Tigers-like be so bad? (I realize you said "lite", but I'm not sure we would be inferior to the Tigers)

     

    The lite was the reference to the $140M vs. their $180M or whatever it is.  I knew it was more of a thought...

    Just for fun, I wonder what the Twins 25 man roster would look like if they said "screw it" and made the entirety of their minor league talent available for trade in an effort to win in the next 5 years.

     

    Buxton. Sano. Berrios. Meyer. Stewart..... Everyone is available.

     

    Guys already at in the majors could be available too (Vargas, Arcia, Dozier, Santana, etc)

    You might be seeing something like this going on in Miami right now.  Just read this:

     

    "The Marlins have now traded 4 of their top 7 prospects (and their #15, and Chris Hatcher) for a year of Mat Latos, Dee Gordon, Jarred Cosart, and Aaron Crow."

    You might be seeing something like this going on in Miami right now.  Just read this:

     

    "The Marlins have now traded 4 of their top 7 prospects (and their #15, and Chris Hatcher) for a year of Mat Latos, Dee Gordon, Jarred Cosart, and Aaron Crow."

     

    No team manages to baffle, intrigue, horrify, and infuriate me all at the same time quite like the Marlins.

    White Sox sign Melky Cabrera, 3 years, $42 million:

     

    http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/12/white-sox-to-sign-melky-cabrera.html

     

    SInce they already lost their 2nd round pick for signing David Robertson, they now forfeit their 3rd round draft pick in 2015.

    Like I said, every signing so far has been met here with, "that's too much money" or "that's too many years" or "I wouldn't sign that guy he's not good"......well, apparently, a hug number of MLB teams disagree.

     

    Mccarthy and Ervin both made their debut in 2005 and are about the same age.  Mccarthy has an ERA of 4.09 and just 980 IP.  Ervin has 1,880 IP with a 4.17 ERA.

     

    The two guys got essentially the same deal. Looks to me like that is too many years for Mccarthy.  

    Mccarthy and Ervin both made their debut in 2005 and are about the same age.  Mccarthy has an ERA of 4.09 and just 980 IP.  Ervin has 1,880 IP with a 4.17 ERA.

     

    The two guys got essentially the same deal. Looks to me like that is too many years for Mccarthy.  

    It should be noted that McCarthy has somewhat better peripherals, thus a better FIP/xFIP than Santana.  Still surprised by McCarthy's deal (MLBTR predicted 3/36).

    It should be noted that McCarthy has somewhat better peripherals, thus a better FIP/xFIP than Santana.  Still surprised by McCarthy's deal (MLBTR predicted 3/36).

     

    For me, $12M a year for a guy that will get you 100 IP better be as one of the top pitchers in the game while  healthy (same pay as a $24M pitcher that pitches 200 IP).  Mccarthy has not been.  Maybe an 8 start stretch right before becoming a free agent....

    White Sox sign Melky Cabrera, 3 years, $42 million:

     

    http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/12/white-sox-to-sign-melky-cabrera.html

     

    SInce they already lost their 2nd round pick for signing David Robertson, they now forfeit their 3rd round draft pick in 2015.

     

    I would not have been thrilled if the Twins made this signing.  $13M a year for ages 30-33 corner OF.  He is already a negative defensive player (-2.1 dWAR the last two years).  And I don't think his offense offsets that.  Career OPS + of 103.

    It's odd; each deal on its own feels like a questionable call, yet when they are all put together, I can't shake the feeling that the White Sox really improved their roster for the near future (3 or more seasons).

     

    I agree that I don't think the Twins would have benefitted from making these deals themselves (though I think I could live with a 3 year deal for Melky compared to the 5-6 years he was rumored to be asking for...).

     

    I will feel a lot better if the Twins add one more defense first outfielder (or if Rosario breaks out in 2015 and ends up playing in the field a lot with great defense).

    It's odd; each deal on its own feels like a questionable call, yet when they are all put together, I can't shake the feeling that the White Sox really improved their roster for the near future (3 or more seasons).

     

    I agree that I don't think the Twins would have benefitted from making these deals themselves (though I think I could live with a 3 year deal for Melky compared to the 5-6 years he was rumored to be asking for...).

     

    I will feel a lot better if the Twins add one more defense first outfielder (or if Rosario breaks out in 2015 and ends up playing in the field a lot with great defense).

     

    Yeah...one year of Shark, LaRoche, Melky, Duke, and prospects does not seem worth $40M a year.  Any time you spend $40M your team should improve. 




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