White Sox 4, Twins 3: Twins Cease and Desisted Against White Sox

1 hour ago, GeorgiaBaller said:

@chpettit19 in the macro, this particular game, I would agree.  You can't steal who can't get on base.  However, Kepler, Buxton, Gordon, Polanco, Correa, Gallo, Farmer and maybe even Larnach have speed enough to steal bases.  loads of the new prospects have ample speed. Good base running coaches teach techniques to get a hop or running step early.  Especially when you only have 2 pickoff chances/disengagements per runner, tighter calls on balks, bigger bases and a pitch clock.  you don't need 2 base hits, a single to the outfield with a man on second should score most decent baserunners.  Good baserunning skills and situational pushing put additional pressure on a pitcher who is already a little set off from a new pitch clock.

The Twins lost a lot of 1 run games last year---and a few already this year.  Moving a runner with no outs or 1 out puts someone a base closer to score.  Your strategy might change in different innings based on who is at the plate, but an extra run early can be a big advantage.  Situations like the Phillies maybe moving Harper to first (or other 1b's with terrible arm accuracy) bring a double steal or runner going to 2nd on the throw regardless.  In reality, some nights Catchers and Defenses do not allow steals, but many catchers in the game today are framers first and arms second.  You will see a lot more steals this year and every year the playoffs have increased steals and bunts over the regular season.  I am just in favor of getting rolling---and I would exchange a few outs for leaving runners on base when the rules have changes to create steal opportunities.

Totally agree that they have some guys in the minors who can steal some bags. And those guys are stealing bags. But their MLB guys do not have the speed to steal a bunch of bags. It'd be an awful strategy to try. So complaining about the current MLB team not stealing bases doesn't make sense to me in the least.

Current sprint speed percentiles for the guys you listed:
Kepler: Would be about 70th if he were playing, but doesn't have enough to qualify
Buxton: 99th (unfortunately he's just not going to run much anymore as part of their strategy to keep him healthy)
Gordon: 75th (but he can't get on base, he's stolen bases in the past so not sure why we'd think he wouldn't try this year)
Polanco: 0 (he's not even playing, but will be in the 70-75th range and may try to steal)
Correa: 37th
Gallo: 29th
Farmer: 19th
Larnach: 43rd

This current team doesn't have the guys to steal. Correa, Gallo, Farmer, and Larnach do not have "speed enough to steal." They're flat out slow.

The team had Molitor in spring training working on base running and stealing. They did base running drills everyday. The fast guys in the majors and minors steal bases. Why do you think they won't steal bases when the guys they have throughout the org have literally been stealing bases for years? I don't understand the complaint. Their fast guys are either Buxton, or can't get on base right now so they aren't even able to steal bases. The guys they have coming up are stealing bases, and have been stealing bases but people seem to be getting in pre-complaints that they won't steal bases when they get here for some reason I don't understand.

It looks an awful lot like the "quick hook" narrative where people are just throwing a blanket statement out as a team philosophy instead of looking at the actual situation. Gray, Ryan, and Paddack were going 6 and 7 innings to start the year last year. Paddack blew out his elbow, Gray kept getting hurt, and Ryan got covid that wiped him out for quite a while. The rest of the guys they were starting were bad pitchers who didn't deserve to go deep, or Ober who can't stay healthy and needs limits. But people ignored that and just said the team won't let guys go 3 times through the order which was false then and is showing to be really false now. So people have moved on to steals. The Twins have had a super slow team for years so haven't stolen many bases and now people are claiming it's some sort of org philosophy despite there being guys stealing bases all over the org. Trying to steal with guys who can't steal just to say you tried to steal is a terrible strategy. 19th percentile sprint speed Kyle Farmer should not be stealing bases, sorry. Correa has seen his sprint speed steadily decline through the years and hasn't stolen more than 3 bases since his 2nd season. He stole 6 combined in his last 5 seasons in Houston. Why weren't the Astros stealing him if it were such a great idea? Carlos Correa shouldn't be stealing bases.

The Twins simply don't have the guys to steal bases right now. It'll start changing as Julien gets more time, Lewis comes back, Polanco comes back, Gordon stops being really bad, Martin gets called up, etc. It's not an overarching philosophy it's a lack of players capable of doing it.

32 minutes ago, GeorgiaBaller said:

@chpettit19  @Mike Sixel Just wondering if you have been watching any baseball games lately?  Wow---amazing how the hometown club might have resorted to aggressive in game management when their bats fell asleep for a few weeks?  

And did it just result in outs? hmmmm.  In fact, it rejuvenated the club because they were proactive and were not only waiting on HR's and doubles to win games.  Stolen bases, Sac Flies, hit and runs----and even a Sac Bunt to score a run!  By your Catcher!  I am an old-timer myself, but played for coaches who wants to use the team's talents to make something happen.  

The most exciting and entertaining ball the Twins have played in years.  They are playing playoff baseball---creating a few extra runs and last night even rattling a HOF pitcher while doing so!  if you have watched the playoofs the last 3 years, this aggressive in-game management and pushing the pace/upsetting the norm is what you see in more abundance. 

Thank you, Rocco, for making this happen!  We are seeing a manger trusting his team to use individual skills in specific game situations to make plays happen.The most entertaining few recent games we have seen in years. And....Royce Lewis is around the corner, who will sear the basepaths when he gets here.    

if you nae-sayers want to sit back and poo-poo, "we're not fast enough", "we don't have that kind of personnel", "the percentages say we are giving up outs"---the proof is on the field.  Go back and watch boring Bomba Squad replays if you want--this is the game baseball is trying to bring back----and its a lot of fun!

 

 

4/24-4/30- 7 games vs NYY and KC - 43 total runs scored - 13 HRs, 3 SBs

5/2-5/7- 6 games against CHW and CLE - 18 total runs scored - 7 HRs, 5 SBs

5/9-5/16- 8 games against SD, CHC, and LAD- 52 total runs scored - 13 HRs, 6 SBs

See any pattern in there between when they were averaging 3 runs a game vs when they were averaging 6+?

I don't disagree that base hits, steals, etc. is more exciting. I've never said anything different. In fact I just made a post yesterday in a thread about batting average as a stat that guys who get hits are more entertaining, but power scores more runs. I prefer the Twins score, and, most importantly, win games over having more movement on the field.

Power scores. It sucks it's not as entertaining since there's less frequent action. But hitting HRs remains the way this team is breaking out of funks. 

And, as for the "we're not fast enough/don't have that kind of personnel" stuff goes I'd suggest you take a look at who's stealing bases for the Twins. MAT (6), Buxton (4), Castro (4), and Polanco (1). It's almost like it's our fast guys stealing bases like many of us have said was the only way to do it. They're not just blindly stealing everyone.

I'm glad you're enjoying the games lately. I'm sure you enjoyed those Chicago and Cleveland games the most since that's when they were stealing the most bases per game.

19 hours ago, GeorgiaBaller said:

Steals are not the only issue and no, I am not opposed to the long ball.  My entire point was about situational game management.  What do you do to push and create runs when you are not hitting homers?

MLB understands that the snorefests created by homerball centric baseball is bad for the game and that is why the game has been losing popularity over the last decade +.  Homerball encourages changing your swing to fly out, strike out, or homer. That is why they made multiple rule changes to 1) speed the game 2) increase the action on the basepaths.  The biggest event is always the home run---and has been forever.  But playing to let guys go sit on base and wait for someone to homer inning after inning is terrible baseball.  And it ruined the game and drove away fans.  Nobody is against home runs!  But aggressive game management to scuttle the 1 or 2 runs a game you force across the plate, not ONLY with steals---but sacrifice flys, bunts, hit and runs, threats to run that rattle the pitcher, choking up and spraying hits the other way- are PROACTIVE ways to CREATE runs.   

You can selectively read all you want to, but my point has been there are ways to move runners and create runs when the team is not homering--especially the first 2 times through the order.  I expect anyone to understand that you want HR's in the game, that should go without saying---but for the other half to 2/3's of the team per game that are not launching bombs---they can be productive in other ways on the bases within the games to plate runs and make the game more enjoyable.  

Nobody has ever said you should never, ever use small ball tactics. Don't claim selective reading on my part when you're putting words in my mouth. Fast guys should steal! Actually, anyone who can do it at better than an 80% success rate should. You should surprise someone with a bunt every now and then, as long as your guy can bunt, and your base runners are heads up. But you shouldn't build a team around that, or use them frequently. Because if you're not meeting a certain threshold of success you're hurting yourself and costing your team runs in the name of "action."

Playing to let guys go sit on base and wait for someone to homer inning after inning is terribly boring baseball. I get that you were told growing up that "small ball" and "manufacturing runs" was the "right way" to play the game. But it's not the smart way if it's a bigger part of your strategy than hitting for power.

Hit and runs are not easy to find stats on so they're not included here. But I combined SB, sac bunts, and sac flies together to create your desired small ball totals. Here's the top 10 scoring teams and where they rank in HRs hit vs small ball totals:

Rays- HRs- 1st, Small Ball- 4th
Rangers- 8th, 7th
Red Sox- 10th, 19th
Dodgers- 3rd, 15th
Braves- 2nd, 23rd
DBacks- 16th, 6th
Angels- 9th, 24th
Orioles- 13th, 2nd
Cards- 7th, 18th
Twins- 6th, 30th

Of top 10 run scoring teams the average rank for HRs is 7.5, and only 2 aren't in the top 10. For small ball moves the average rank is 14.8, and only 4 are in the top 10.

The top 10 slugging teams rank 1, 5, 3, 4, 2, 6, 9, 11, 8, and 23rd in runs scored. Average rank of 7.2, 8 in top 10.

The top 10 stolen base teams rank 21, 1, 29, 25, 8, 11, 12, 28, and 6th in runs scored. Average rank of 14.1, 3 in top 10.

The top 10 teams in sac bunts, steals, and sac flies combined rank 21, 8, 29, 1, 25, 6, 2, 11, 19, and 12th in runs scored. Average rank of 13.4, 4 in the top 10.

This isn't hard. Nobody is saying to completely take tools out of your tool box. But some tools are better than others. And it's not close. Power is by far the best tool for an offense when it comes to scoring runs. Extra movement on the base paths may make you feel like they're doing things, and improving their run scoring, but it isn't. Small ball is significantly less effective at scoring runs no matter how you feel about it. It's not an opinion, it's a provable fact.