What Does An Edouard Julien Renaissance Look Like?

Edouard Julien came on strong in 2023, with his elite plate discipline and left-handed thump helping to propel the team down the stretch. Last season was a diametrically different story. It felt like opposing pitchers figured Julien out, and he could not adjust. This will be a pivotal campaign for Julien, coming off that nasty bout of regressionitis. Can he put himself back in the Twins’ plans?

Plate discipline was Julien’s calling card during his 2023 breakout. He was a prime candidate to lead off against right-handed pitching (despite a strikeout rate of over 30%) due to his ability to get on base. His patient approach allowed him to work walks and get ahold of plenty of mistakes in favorable counts, resulting in a slash line 35% above league average.

In 2024, that plate discipline crossed the line into being overly passive, as Julien led the league in looking strikeouts—despite spending a large chunk of the season in Triple-A. His OPS dropped from .839 to .616, as opposing pitchers seemed to realize they could fill up the zone to get to two strikes and catch Julien fishing when he was forced into swing mode. His walk rate declined from 15.7% to 11%, because pitchers have to fear you a bit to walk as much as he did in 2023, and in 2024, they ceased to do so.

The obvious answer for Julien to opposing pitchers' adjustments is to become a touch more aggressive. The less obvious (but all too familiar) adjustment has more to do with handling breaking pitches. Julien didn’t manage an expected batting average of .200 or an expected slugging percentage of .300 against breaking balls or offspeed pitches in 2024. He swung and missed over 40% of the time at both categories of offering.

This adjustment is easier said than done, but the Twins should have a blueprint for addressing it. Struggles against non-fastballs previously defined Trevor Larnach’s career, and we finally saw him make progress in 2024. From 2023 to 2024, Larnach dropped his whiff rate against breaking balls by over 15%. Larnach maintained a 10% walk rate, while cutting his strikeout rate from 34% to 22.3%. If Julien can come anywhere close to this level of adjustment, it would be nearly impossible to keep him out of the lineup.

Another factor in Julien’s return to form with the Twins may be his defense. Despite flashing at times defensively and reports from the Twins that his defense had improved, Julien graded out worse in several defensive metrics in 2024 than he had in 2023. Brooks Lee, on the other hand, looks to be an elite defender at second base. For Julien to hold down the position, it will likely take at least average defense, to go with a significant offensive rebound. First base may also be an option should the need arise, but second base is likely his best immediate path onto the roster.

Lee is coming off a tough debut in his own right, and the Twins likely don’t want to pencil super-utility man Willi Castro into an everyday second-base role. Julien can come out firing this spring and win the second base job when the team heads north for the season.

Julien once looked like a core member of the Twins lineup, but a lot changed over the last season. Now, in an open competition to make the team out of spring training, he needs an enormous bounceback season. He has the skills for it, but consolidating those skills is a greater challenge than acquiring them.