Buyers or Sellers: Can the Twins Be Both at the 2024 Trade Deadline?

Because of irrational ownership-mandated payroll reductions, Minnesota’s front office was forced to be creative this winter when searching for pieces to complete their 2024 roster. The resulting roster has underperforming players and other holes that must be addressed at the trade deadline. The Twins currently hold the final Wild Card spot in the American League and are on pace to win roughly 90 games, so it seems logical for the team to want to be buyers. However, the club might have room to trade away veteran pieces to maximize any remaining value. 

Like many ownership groups, Twins ownership has previously pointed to other organizations with lower payrolls and on-field success.

“I think in today's game, you can see there are a number of different ways to win,” executive chair Joe Pohlad told reporters earlier this spring. “You see that both with the Tampa Bay Rays, with the Baltimore Orioles, having lower payrolls and turning out very successful products on the field, but also investing in other areas of the business."

Tampa is an organization that isn’t afraid to deal away a veteran player and replace that player with a younger, more cost-effective option. However, that strategy only works if the replacement player can produce. 

The Twins' needs before the deadline still need to be determined. Many of the team’s right-handed bats have underperformed, combining for a 94 wRC+, but the Twins hope that the return of Royce Lewis will help those numbers come back up. Matt Wallner and Edouard Julien were expected to build off their tremendous rookie seasons. Instead, they are both at Triple-A, hoping to rediscover their swings. Overall pitching depth is also something all contending teams attempt to acquire at the trade deadline. It seems unlikely for this front office to add a playoff-caliber starter, so any upgrades should be relief arms. 

So, how can the Twins thread the needle between buyers and sellers? Minnesota’s front office attempted to trade veteran pieces this winter, but other options remain on the roster. Max Kepler has seen his name in the rumor mill for multiple seasons. There is a possibility that the Twins can extend him a qualifying offer after the season, but that seems unlikely, given the aforementioned payroll limitations. Kepler is likely headed to a multi-year free-agent deal out of the Twins’ price range. The front office could trade Kepler’s expiring contract If Wallner or Emmanuel Rodriguez were deemed ready to step into a full-time role in right field.

Kepler isn’t the only veteran trade option, either. Another way the Twins can get creative this summer is by using veteran players to balance money in a trade. Earlier this week, I wrote about Minnesota targeting Pete Alonso in a trade with the Mets. He is owed over $10 million for the remainder of the season, so the Mets could agree to take on the salary of a player like Christian Vázquez to make the deal work. Carlos Santana and Kyle Farmer can be used similarly, if the Twins feel comfortable with other players stepping into their roles on the club. Caleb Thielbar is another who might draw some trade interest, because many contending teams are looking for left-handed relievers. He’s the most expensive player in the bullpen, and the Twins have other lefty options.

Many of the team’s veteran players have underperformed to this point in the season, so there may be minimal trade value associated with their contracts. To be clear, the strategy of trading someone like Kepler will not sit well with a fan base that was dragged along during the sluggish, maddening offseason. At the same time, the front office doesn’t make moves based on how the fans will react. If that were the case, Luis Arráez and Jorge Polanco would still be on the roster. Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have shown the ability to be aggressive at the trade deadline, but that might mean a combination of buying and selling for 2024. 

Can any team successfully buy and sell at the trade deadline? Do the veteran pieces have any trade value left on the bone? Leave a comment and start the discussion.