Trade Deadline Primer Excerpt: Miami Marlins

I think Rogers could do very well in a change  of scenery. But he'll still come expensive, most likely more than this club is willing to part with. Love to bring home U of M star, Meyers but could he quickly mature into that frontline SP that we need ? It'd be nice, Bass is a must.

The Marlins drafted Meyer 2 years ago and have just called him up to MLB. His progress through the minors underlines that it would take a big haul to get them to trade him, but I'd bet that it also points to them being less willing to deal him than they were a year ago.

Miami is unlikely to trade Meyer and the Twins would be foolish to trade Miranda. Miranda has done well so far and projects to improve quite a bit both at the plate and especially in the field.

Also...Max Meyer injures elbow

Lopez and Bass for would be my targets - not sure what it would take to get it done. You'd likely have to give up Larnach or Miranda to start, Steer, plus one more like Wallner or Encarnacion Strand at a bare minimum. Bass has a team option for '23, and Lopez is under arbitration through '24. I hate the idea of giving up Larnach but we do have a lot of big league bats fighting for space and he'd probably net the biggest return outside of Kirriloff and Miranda. I could be convinced to give up AK for the right price, but Miranda has got to be a no-trade for me. (Unless we get something ridiculous like Castillo AND Mahle.)

I would target Pablo Lopez in a trade with Miami.  He is under control through 2024 could be a top of rotation type starter and we have a surplus of what Miami is likely looking for, Bats.  I would lead with Larnach and Steer for starters.  I would sting to trade Larnach but outfield bats are more replaceable than top end starters.  If Miami wants more look to the lower minors for some of the exciting outfielders that are moving up the prospect rankings to give them additional future prospects.  For fun I would offer them Sano and eat the rest of his contract.  That gives Miami 2 young hitters and one who might find a spark with a change of scenery.  Kiriloff and Miranda would be off limits unless they are blown away. 

MLBTR says Marlins are "open to offers" on Pablo López and are looking for left-handed power hitting: link

I know the Baseball Trade Values simulator sometimes values certain players weirdly and maybe shouldn't be trusted, but for what it's worth, it views trading Larnach, Steer, and Canterino for López and Anthony Bass as almost a dead-even match.

In the real world, 2 out of 3 players on the Twins side of that deal are hurt or rehabbing, which probably will affect the value assessment somewhat. But this kind of framework for a trade, at least, looks realistic.

What about Kiriloff for Lopez straight up?  That would be a tough decision for the Twins.....

The Twins need pitching, it is that simple. Every pitcher in baseball carries risk-this is an obvious truth.

Pablo Lopez fits a specific need and the various suggestions of offering a young outfielder, a young infielder, and a young pitcher all are reasonable. Now, will Miami agree? 

Although the main need for the Twins is in the bullpen, starting pitching is also thin. Pull the strings and gamble on a questionable shoulder or two. Lopez and Bass for Larnach /(Kirilloff?), Steer, and Winder/Ober/Canterino and another player mutually agreed upon and acquire Montas and Puk for Martin, Woods-Richardson, Sabato, Julien, and Varland/Povich/Hajjar. These two guys push Ryan to #3 and Gray to #4, but also release stress on the relief corps because they usually eat 6-7 innings. 

Something needs to change because the Twins are quite unlikely to go after and successfully sign a top free agent pitcher and they need a guy or two. The time is ripe to take a chance. The Twins have a decent lineup and it is also very young. They don't exactly need to save so many prospects for the next several years, especially hitters. Both Brooks Lee and CES could be ready in a couple of years and Erod is coming too. Trading four of our dozen pitching prospects is unlikely to hurt if the addition includes two guys like Lopez and Montas.

6 hours ago, Steve71 said:

What about Kiriloff for Lopez straight up?  That would be a tough decision for the Twins.....

If a one-for-one swap were on the table, they should do it. How much it would set the team back this year depends a bit on Larnach's injury recovery—if they realistically expect him to be healthy for the stretch run, he kind of replaces Kirilloff's lefty bat, and if not, maybe they need to look for a rental bat elsewhere. But even if Kirilloff has loads of potential and a number of years under contractual control, a corner bat for 2+ years of a #2-ish starter is a good deal IMO.