The Twins' 12 Biggest Offseason Questions (& Their Answers) - Part 1

Question 1: What will Byron Buxton 's role be next year?
Magic 8-Ball: Concentrate and ask again
We discovered yesterday that Buxton is undergoing an additional knee surgery, but this one is arthroscopic, which is important because it is less invasive and has a faster recovery. To summarize the situation at a high level: this year, Buxton has been suffering from chronic patellar tendonitis, which means part of his right knee is getting irritated, which causes swelling, which causes pain. They will remove some of the part (the plica) that doctors think is causing that irritation.

And then? Per Falvey, the goal is the same as it was entering this year: get him back to running around centerfield, this time without a swollen knee. "Our hope and our expectation and our goal is to get him ready to play center field. That's his focus. That's what he wants, and that's what we all want," said Falvey

Is that realistic? Some of that will depend on what the surgeon finds when he goes into the knee for the procedure, which should provide more information than imaging. The good and bad news is that this is an iterative process: they fix what is causing the existing problem and then see how the knee reacts - and if it reveals a new issue. "I would let the procedure take place. We have to see what the doctors say," reflected Baldelli.

Question 2: So, will Royce Lewis play centerfield instead?
Magic 8-Ball: My sources say no
Baldelli was pretty emphatic on Lewis remaining an infielder next year. "I consider Royce, going into the offseason and next spring training, getting ready to play third base," he said. Falvey agreed with him, though he cautioned that injuries can affect the best of plans.

Question 3: So, who will play centerfield?
Magic 8-Ball: Reply hazy, try again
It's safe to say the Twins won't go out and acquire an everyday starting centerfielder this offseason, simply because there are already too many internal candidates: Buxton, Willi Castro, and prospect Austin Martin are atop the list. Could they bring back Michael A. Taylor or another veteran to help insure the spot? To that, the magic 8-ball says, "You may rely on it."

Question 4: Will Sonny Gray return?
Magic 8-Ball: Very doubtful
While it appears to be a lovefest all around, there is also the reality that the business of baseball will likely mean the Twins and Gray will go their separate ways. The Twins didn't say they will give Gray a qualifying offer, but they will. Gray hasn't said he will turn it down, but he will, as he'll be one of the most pursued starting pitchers on the free-agent market. Can they get a deal done before all that? It is very rare for a desirable free agent, who has waited (and thrived) for 13 years in professional baseball, to give up the opportunity to test his market two weeks before it becomes a reality.

Question 5: Will the Twins add a big bat in the offseason?
Magic 8-Ball: Don't count on it
The Twins haven't been afraid to go big-game hunting in the offseason, whether by signing free agents (Josh Donaldson, Carlos Correa twice) or trades (Gray, Pablo Lopez ). But three key factors lead me to think they won't.

First, they want to see what happens with Alex Kirilloff . It was revealed yesterday that Kirilloff will undergo surgery on a shoulder labrum tear, and like Buxton, what the surgeon finds may impact the next course of action. Kirilloff's 117 OPS+ last year - even while returning from a wrist injury and battling this new shoulder injury - reminded everyone how good he could be. Especially compared to….

It's a weak free-agent market for power right-handed first basemen. There are some premium names, like Rhys Hoskins, but otherwise, there are a lot of veterans who either don't look a lot better than Kirilloff or can't play first base. And the Twins want to keep the designated hitter spot available for Buxton and other players who want to find playing time in a crowded lineup, such as 23-year-old Edouard Julien .

Third, a bigger (and more traditional) question has raised its ugly head…

Question 6: What will the Twins' payroll situation be next year?
Magic 8-Ball: Better not tell you now
The Twins' TV deal with Bally Sports North expires this year, and the situation is a mess. Those TV rights were worth $54.8 million to the Twins in 2023. With that revenue in question, the Twins' 2023 Opening Day payroll of approximately $154M (per Cot's) could be in jeopardy. Officially, Falvey replied, "I would just say we haven't really had that dialogue yet." But he sounded less optimistic than last year about any increase in payroll and talked about how some of the younger players will be making less than the guys they're replacing. So, officially, we don't know, but the potential of a lower payroll is certainly not off the table.

And that's a problem because the default payroll already eats a lot of that money. If the Twins bring back their team as is (without free agents) and with reasonable decisions made in arbitration, their payroll is already near $124 million. There isn't much room to add an expensive free agent - unless they start to trade away some veterans.

However, the Twins' crowded roster presents some possibilities there, so let's look at some candidates, tomorrow in Part 2.