The Minnesota Twins Project to Have Baseball’s Best Bullpen, With Room to Improve

Pitchers and catchers report to spring training next month, which leaves many fans looking toward the upcoming season. How will the hometown nine perform? Where can the team still improve before Opening Day? What players are set to take on a more critical role? Projection systems like Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS help to set a baseline for what to expect in the upcoming season. Last week, FanGraphs released the team’s ZiPS projections, and the bullpen stood out from the other roster segments. 

Teams still have room to add pieces to their roster before the season begins, but Minnesota’s bullpen might not need any upgrades. According to Szymborski, “Though it’s certainly not an official projection yet, ZiPS believes at this moment that the Twins have the best bullpen in baseball.” What’s behind this high praise, and how can the team solidify this position as the season approaches? Let’s dive into what’s changed, how the group can improve, and what pieces might still be missing.

What’s Changed from 2024 to 2025?
The 2024 Twins bullpen was a solid unit, with the second-highest fWAR in the American League. However, every bullpen has its flaws. Injuries and inconsistency plagued the group, leaving questions about its overall reliability. However, several key developments over the offseason and player growth have led to this promising 2025 projection.

First, Griffin Jax emerged as one of the most dominant relievers in baseball. He had a 2.03 ERA, a 0.87 WHIP, and 95 strikeouts in 71 innings pitched in 2024. Jax finished with 10 saves and allowed just four home runs all year. He was worth 2.8 WAR, tied for seventh-most among all MLB relief pitchers. MLB Network recently unveiled its top-10 relievers and Jax was notably left off the list. Entering last year, he was projected to be a solid reliever, but no one could have imagined the elite pitcher he would be in 2024. 

Secondly, Jhoan Durán has been one of the most dominant relievers in baseball, but he showed some chinks in his armor last season. Durán’s combination of triple-digit velocity and devastating off-speed pitches makes him a nightmare for opposing hitters. He saw a decrease in velocity last season, so the team must keep an eye on his performance this year. In 58 appearances, he posted a 3.64 ERA with a 1.16 WHIP and 10.9 K/9. There may be room for him to adjust his pitch usage to be effective even at his lower velocity. Jax and Durán have the potential to be a dominant late-inning duo. 

Lastly, the front office has made calculated decisions to retain key contributors while avoiding overspending on free agents. Their strategy of maximizing value from in-house options has helped build a bullpen rich in both talent and cost-effectiveness. Overall, the team kept strong performers from 2024 and dropped the underperforming players. 

How Can This Group Improve?
While the ZiPS projections are encouraging, there’s always room for growth, and several key factors could elevate the Twins’ bullpen to even greater heights in 2025.

1. Louie Varland in a Relief Role: Varland struggled as a starter last season, so moving to the bullpen could unlock his full potential. His fastball and cutter have the makings of elite relief weapons. Focusing on shorter outings should allow him to add velocity and sharpen his command, which the Twins saw in 2023 when he was used as a reliever for the team’s postseason run. Varland could be a pivotal piece in the late innings, if he embraces this role.
2. A Full Season of Cole Sands: Sands quietly emerged as a dependable option in 2024, and the Twins are counting on him to take another step forward in 2025. In 62 games, he posted a 3.28 ERA with a 0.99 WHIP and 10.7 K/9. For the first time in his career, he used his cutter more than his four-seamer and increased its velocity from 88.5 MPH to 90.8 MPH. His four-seamer (31.2%), cutter (29.7%), and curveball (29.4%) each saw a significant jump in Whiff% in a bullpen role. There is a chance he can improve as he gets another full season in the bullpen.
3. Brock Stewart’s Return: Stewart’s 2024 season was cut short by another shoulder injury, but his electric stuff was evident when healthy. If he can return to form, Stewart offers another dynamic arm capable of handling high-leverage situations. In 2023, the Twins saw Stewart post a 0.65 ERA with a 1.08 WHIP and 12.7 K/9. His recovery could be a significant X-factor in the bullpen’s success, but it seems likely that the Twins will limit his workload to keep him healthy for the season’s second half.

What Pieces Are Missing?
Despite the promising projection, there are still ways the Twins can enhance their bullpen’s performance. Specifically, the team lacks a proven high-leverage left-handed reliever. Caleb Thielbar’s departure leaves a middle-inning role. Kody Funderburk and Brent Headrick are the only lefties on the 40-man roster, so the Twins could be in the market for a more reliable lefty. There is hope this duo could improve and step into the vacated high-leverage lefty role. 

Free agency or trades could address this need, but the Twins’ front office is reluctant to invest heavily in relief pitching. Historically, they’ve preferred to allocate resources elsewhere, relying on development and minor-league signings to build their bullpen. If they stick with this approach, the team may need to identify a breakout candidate or use creative roster moves to fill this gap.

The Minnesota Twins’ bullpen is poised for a breakout season in 2025, with a mix of established stars and rising talents ready to lead the charge. Louie Varland’s transition, a healthy Brock Stewart, and a full season of Cole Sands could take the group to the next level. However, addressing the lack of a high-leverage lefty could be the final puzzle piece. Whether through internal development or an external addition, the Twins have an opportunity to solidify their bullpen as the best in baseball and make a deep postseason run. If the projections hold, 2025 could be a banner year for pitching in Minnesota.

What stands out about the team’s ZiPS projections for the bullpen? Leave a comment and start the discussion.