The Manuel Margot Acquisition Has Been a Disaster

One of the Twins’ greatest needs this offseason was a replacement for Michael A. Taylor--a right-handed outfielder who could crush left-handed pitching and fill in at center field for the oft-injured Byron Buxton. While the front office tried to simply bring back Taylor, they were unable to come to terms. They opted to trade for outfielder Manuel Margot.

Even at the time of the trade, the Margot acquisition wasn’t super inspiring. He was a career 91 OPS+ hitter and was coming off a 2023 season in which his OPS was a mere .686. The signing was justified, though, based on the fact that Margot could indeed fill the role that the Twins needed. He was a career .760 OPS hitter against lefties, could run the bases well, and (unlike other free-agent options, like Tommy Pham), was an above-average defender who could fill in at center field whenever needed.

A month and a half into the season, the pickup has been a bad one by just about any metric. On the season, Margot has a lowly 46 OPS+, with just two extra-base hits and an on-base percentage of .258. The 29-year-old has a career-low xSLG of .286 and the second-lowest average exit velocity of his career, at 85.7 MPH. Both numbers are near the bottom in all of baseball.

But, hey, Margot wasn’t brought in to be a Silver Slugger winner. He was brought in to crush lefties, run the bases, and play solid defense all over the outfield. He’s at least doing those things, right?

Not quite. Against southpaws, Margot is hitting slightly better than against righthanders, but it's still a .685 OPS. 

Margot hasn’t provided any value on the bases, either. He has just one stolen base on the season, after averaging 12 stolen bases per season over the past seven years. Even more concerning is his sharp decrease in sprint speed. After posting a season in the 75th percentile in sprint speed in 2023, Margot has clocked an average sprint speed in just the 50th percentile so far in 2024.

The most frustrating part of the Margot experience in 2024, though, has been his usage and performance in the field. Although the Twins have needed a center-field glove this season with a hobbled Byron Buxton, Margot didn't get his first start in center until May 6. Based on their actions, the Twins have shown that Margot is (at best) fourth in line for center-field action, behind Buxton, Austin Martin and Willi Castro, despite his ability to play center field being a key reason why they decided to prioritize him over someone like Adam Duvall, who has an .868 OPS against lefties this season.

When he is in the field in a corner outfield spot, Margot’s defense there has been less than stellar. The Dominican native has posted -2 Outs Above Average, with poor range and a propensity for making some generally horrible plays, like the one against Boston on Sunday.

The Twins are in a tough spot when it comes to Margot’s place on the roster, however, as most of the promising bats in the organization are left-handed bats, whereas the Twins really need a presence on the right side of the plate. As poor as Margot has looked at all three facets of the game, though, the Twins should not be handcuffing themselves by keeping him on the roster just because he stands in the right batter's box.

Some potential replacements for Margot on the roster, should the Twins decide to go that direction, could be:

• Tony Kemp, whom the Twins brought in on a minor-league deal and who can play infield or corner outfield 
• Matt Wallner, who has shown some signs of progress at Triple-A since getting sent down 
• DaShawn Kiersey Jr., a promising prospect with the Saints who hits left-handed but has an .882 OPS so far on the season.

The Margot move has gone just about as badly as possible for the Twins. Whether they decide to wait until Royce Lewis comes back or to make a move sooner, the Twins need to start thinking about what it could look like to move on from this misstep.