The 7 Biggest Decisions for the Twins’ Offseason: Tender, Trade or Let Bailey Ober Walk?

The Minnesota Twins have a lot of questions to answer this offseason. The starting rotation is one of them. There is plenty of uncertainty surrounding the group heading into 2027. Pablo López is working his way back from elbow surgery. Joe Ryan could be a trade candidate. Younger pitchers like Connor Prielipp and Zebby Matthews are trying to establish themselves as long-term rotation pieces.

Then there is Bailey Ober. Ober entered the 2026 season looking to rebound from the worst season of his career. He struggled through velocity concerns and inconsistency in 2025, posting a 5.10 ERA across 146 1/3 innings. His 2026 campaign was better, but it still didn't resemble the version of Ober who looked like a dependable mid-rotation starter in previous seasons. Ober finished 2026 with a 4.47 ERA over 25 games and 131 innings. He struck out 96 hitters while posting a 1.30 WHIP. 

Now the Twins have to determine whether to tender Ober a contract for 2027. Technically, this is a non-tender decision rather than simply "offering arbitration." Ober remains under team control and is entering his third and final year of arbitration eligibility. He made $5.2 million in 2026 and would become a free agent after the 2027 season. That makes this a fascinating decision for Jeremy Zoll and the Twins.

The Pros of Tendering Bailey Ober

The biggest reason to keep Ober is simple: He has already demonstrated that he can be a quality major-league starter even with his diminished velocity. The 2026 season wasn't great, but it was an improvement over 2025. More importantly, Ober's track record includes a 2024 season in which he made 31 starts, threw 178 2/3 innings and struck out 191 hitters. He posted a 3.98 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP that season.

Ober also finished 2026 healthy enough to make 25 appearances, despite missing time earlier in the year with right elbow inflammation. The Twins shut him down in May, but an MRI showed that the UCL graft from his previous Tommy John surgery remained intact.

There is also the matter of the current rotation depth. Even with López expected back and several young arms in the major league mix, the Twins can't assume every pitcher will remain healthy or take the expected developmental step. Ober gives Minnesota another experienced option.

His 2027 salary is likely to be higher than the $5.2 million he made this season, but the organization should have a pretty good idea of the range before making its decision. MLB Trade Rumors estimates he will receive around $6.9M. That's far from exact - last year they estimated he would make $4.6M and he ended up making $5.2M - but it's in the ballpark. That makes the potential cost increase worth considering, especially for a pitcher who has already provided nearly 750 major-league innings in his career.

The Cons of Tendering Bailey Ober

There is a legitimate argument for moving on. Ober has now experienced two consecutive seasons that fell well short of his early career performance. His 5.10 ERA in 2025 was a career high, and his 4.47 ERA in 2026 still left him well above the level he established from 2022 through 2024. The underlying concern goes beyond his ERA.

Ober's strikeout rate dropped considerably as his velocity declined. His fastball averaged 91.7 mph in 2024 and had greater deception due to his elite arm extension (97th percentile). His fastball only averaged 88.0 mph this year, and that isn’t sustainable for a big-league pitcher. He went from 26.9 K% in 2024 to 19.2 K% in 2025, and only 17.1 K% in 2026. His strikeout rate fell to 6.60 per nine innings this year, compared with 9.62 in 2024.

That is a significant change. Then there is the way the Twins used him late in the season. After returning from the injured list, Ober made 11 starts, but six came with at least six days of rest. He also made the first relief appearance of his career and was placed on relatively short leashes during his final stretch of starts. This unusual usage could indicate that his future with Minnesota is uncertain.

The financial side matters, too. Ober is entering his final arbitration year, meaning Minnesota would be paying a raise for a pitcher who could leave as a free agent after 2027. The Twins could decide that the money is better spent elsewhere, particularly if they believe their younger pitchers can fill Ober's innings. That doesn't mean Ober has no value. It means the Twins have to determine how much that value is worth in a season where every dollar may matter.

What Would the Timeline Look Like?

The Twins don't have to make this decision immediately. Ober's contract decision will come during the early portion of the offseason, when Minnesota has a chance to evaluate its entire pitching situation. The club can look at the health of López, the potential for a Ryan trade, the development of its younger starters and the rest of the free-agent pitching market before making its final determination.

The key deadline is the non-tender date. Under the current collective bargaining agreement, clubs must tender contracts to arbitration-eligible players by the last Friday before Thanksgiving, which is November 20th. A player who isn't tendered becomes a free agent.

This offseason comes with an additional wrinkle. The current collective bargaining agreement expires on December 1, 2026, which could affect the offseason calendar. That makes the period leading up to the tender deadline even more important.

The Twins could also explore a trade before deciding to non-tender Ober. An arbitration-eligible starting pitcher with a history of major-league success could have more value on the trade market than he would simply being released. Minnesota could find a club willing to take on Ober's arbitration salary while getting something back. That would give the Twins another option besides keeping him or cutting him loose.

Ober's situation isn't nearly as straightforward as it appeared a couple seasons ago. At one point, Ober looked like one of the safest starters in the Twins' rotation. His 2022-24 seasons provided plenty of evidence that he could handle a substantial workload while missing bats and limiting baserunners.

The last two seasons have changed the conversation. Ober struggled badly in 2025, improved in 2026 and still finished the year with questions surrounding his role. The elbow inflammation adds another consideration, though the Twins received encouraging news when his UCL graft was found intact.

Now Minnesota has to put a price tag on the next chapter. Tender Ober, and the Twins get another opportunity to see whether he can rediscover the pitcher he was as recently as 2024. Non-tender him, and the organization creates another opening in a rotation that already has plenty of uncertainty. 

There is also a third path: tender Ober and explore the trade market. That might be particularly interesting if another organization believes it can get more out of him than Minnesota did during the past two seasons. 

The Twins don't need to decide whether Ober is the pitcher he was in 2024 or the pitcher he has been over the last two seasons. They need to decide whether they believe the pitcher capable of producing those 2024 results is still worth paying for one more season. That will be one of the more interesting calls of the Twins' offseason.

Should the Twins non-tender Ober? Can he help the rotation in 2027? Leave a comment and start the discussion.

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