Sonny Gray's Cutter, Michael A. Taylor's Bunting Prowess, and Some Offensive Discipline

Sonny Gray’s Cutters
Pitchers prefer the cutter when looking to add to their profile, and Sonny Gray has fallen into line. Typically platoon-neutral, the cutter is broadly an excellent pitch for any pitcher to master, as it can slide effortlessly into a repertoire without mucking up a pitcher’s process. But pitchers aren’t general, vague; they have specific plans and pitches to fit into those plans; Gray’s game is especially strange.

He usually pitches better to lefties. His already-cutting fastball provides the jam needed to handcuff lefties inside, but he struggled against righties last season, losing critical slider sweep when in an advantageous situation, platoon speaking.

The solution? A cutter. He technically threw a cutter in 2022, but the pitch was so slow—83.4 MPH, nearly his slider velocity in 2023—it should not count as the same offering he has thrown in 2023. At 87.7 MPH and used much more against righties (at a 74-to-14 clip), the cutter has coaxed a .185 xwOBA and has relinquished his fastball/sinker combo a little—two offerings becoming less effective as Sonny grays. 

My eyes tell me that this is the modern slider-cutter hybrid; the quick deGrom-esque snapper that darts rather than bends like a sweeper. Fascinatingly, Gray's new profile has shifted strikeouts from his sinker to his slider; he has nearly equaled his punch out total from last season on the pitch. He looks like a new pitcher, and the early results are dazzling. 

Michael A. Taylor’s Bunts
In an era where we can encapsulate the entirety of hitting acumen into a few hubristic stats, the art of minute, yet crucial strategies falls dead in the stadium parking lot. Bunting has been reliced, othered—perhaps even mocked by those who choose to ignore its offerings. Yet there are still some who choose to master its lost beauty, and Michael A. Taylor is one of those hitters. Here’s a selection from a recent game against the Royals:

Beautiful stuff. Bunts are a batter’s wild card, turning the game from a battle between professionals into childish chaos, as fielders dash to a base in order to do something without realizing their actions compromised the play. It’s one of the few times a less-disciplined man cannot help but obey his animal instincts screaming “move” without thinking about the implications of their choice. Taylor so far has put four bunts into play, earning the sacrifice from a game against the Nationals; a double on the previous play; swapping places with Christian Vázquez on an excellent play by Dylan Cease; and ending the game when Hanser Alberto mistook Taylor’s head for the first baseman. An earnest mistake.

Minnesota’s Offensive Troubles
3rd-highest Z-Swing 70.5%, 3rd-lowest Z-Contact 82.4%

I just wanted to touch on two stats here: Z-Swing and Z-Contact. Minnesota’s inconsistent, often ineffective offense has sparked feelings—typically negative—and questions whether their bats can support a pitching staff currently shooting for the stars. I can’t answer that: but I can look at a few numbers.

The first is Z-Swing rate—the percentage of pitches inside the zone the Twins swing at. They stand at 70.4%, good for the 3rd-highest rate in MLB. I don’t think this is a bad thing in nature; you need to swing at strikes to do damage, after all, and watching a hittable pitch fly by, mocking you as it goes, is the crucial difference between patience and passivity. All strikes aren’t created equal, but not staring at strikes is generally good practice.

The more troubling stat is Minnesota’s Z-Contact percent—the rate at which they actually make contact with said offerings at pitches in the strike zone. The Twins hit on 82.5% of swings, the 3rd-lowest rate in MLB. This is more problematic—any miss is a bad outcome for a hitter—and can at least partially explain some of the offensive dry spells. If you seek good news, though, my intuition tells me that this is a stat that can rebound, as missing at hittable pitches is usually a sign of poor timing, which any batter can experience during the extreme dredges of the season.