Rogers’ Curveball Sparks Rise to Upper-Echelon of MLB Relievers

Before adding, it’s important to examine what the organization already has. Last week, I took a look at some encouraging signs from Trevor May and his 2018 breakout. The Twins other primary bullpen asset is Taylor Rogers, an organizational success story who took strides to becoming a borderline top 10 reliever in 2018. If he can build upon his progress in 2019, its possible he can be a top 5 reliever. Bold claim? Let’s dig in.

Rogers, a 2012 11th round pick, had occupied a typical LHP role in the Twins bullpen in his first two seasons. He was highly effective against LHH and struggled much more against RHH. There’s nothing unusual about that. In 2018 he took extraordinary strides that led to some truly impressive outcomes:

2018 (MLB rank among qualified relievers)

BB% 6.25% (25th)

xFIP 2.94 (14th)

WAR 1.9 (11th)

WPA 2.65 (9th)

Rogers provided a set of qualities which, when spiraled together, make for a huge value add; left-handed, excellent control, and a high degree of success in high leverage situations. Similarly to previous seasons however, it was a tale of two halves for Rogers, which hinged around him adding a slider midway through the season.

Before digging into Rogers’ new pitch mix, it’s worthwhile to examine his historical performance, particularly with regard to his lefty/righty splits, which usually separate elite left-handed relief pitchers from situational left-handed relievers. Here’s a breakdown of Rogers’ splits against LHH and RHH in his three MLB seasons with the Twins.

These data are a testament to Rogers development over time. Rogers has gone from being completely ineffective vs. RHH to above average in 2018, posting career best avg., K%, and xFIP against opposite handed hitters. He has always been a highly effective pitcher against LHH. Nevertheless, his K% against LHH spiked dramatically in 2018 (36% K rate overall would put him eighth among MLB relievers, right ahead of Adam Ottavino). That Rogers is building on his strengths in addition to improving his deficiencies is a huge positive for the Twins.

Rogers ability to pitch to right handed hitters makes him an extremely valuable commodity. He amassed an fWAR of 1.9 in 2018, good for fifth among left-handed relievers (for anyone who doesn’t appreciate WAR for relievers, read this).

Dan Hayes beautifully detailed how Rogers added his slider midway through the 2018 season. Unsurprisingly, this significantly altered Rogers’ pitch mix – detailed below:

These numbers have to be taken with a grain of salt given that Rogers only began throwing his slider in May, and in earnest approaching and after the All-Star break. Rogers add of a third pitch had a variety of positive impacts on his outputs throughout the season.

Most obviously, Rogers slider reduced the load on his fastball, which is a good, if not great pitch. Despite mixing his slider into his repertoire cautiously at first, Rogers, per Hayes, is unyielding in his claim that he only gave up one hit on the pitch all year, a remarkable accomplishment for a new pitch folded in mid-season.

The most dramatic impact Rogers made in 2018 was the improvement of his curveball, which went from a below average pitch in 2017, to a pitch worth about eight runs in 2018. Rogers made a variety of mechanical alterations to his curveball in 2018, under the tutelage of then bullpen coach Eddie Guardado. Guardado encouraged Rogers to increase his arm extension upon releasing the pitch, making his mechanics more repeatable. This is born out in Rogers improved command of the pitch in 2018.

Rogers was consistently able to work his curveball down in the zone with his improved delivery. Rogers was so consistent with his curveball command that he significantly limited opposing hitters’ ability to contact the pitch. O-Contact% measures the frequency with which opposing hitters contact pitches thrown outside the strike zone. In the second half of 2018, Rogers ranked fifth in this metric among all relievers at 40.6% (league average is around 65%).

Statcast offers visuals which illustrate Rogers’ command of his breaking pitches. Below are images of all the pitches Rogers threw in two separate outings. On the left, a 2017 outing against the Rangers. On the right, a 2018 outing against Pittsburgh. The blue graphics represent Rogers’ curveball, the yellow, his slider. Notice the tight clustering at the bottom of the zone is his 2018 appearance, compared to more of a spread from his breaking pitches in 2017.

Rogers' improved command, combined with more horizontal and vertical movement on the pitch in 2018, resulted in an offering with a soul-crushing level of dominance. In 2018 Rogers gave up a .330 OPS, .015 ISO, and .152 wOBA via his curveball, with a 51.5 K%, a truly dominant pitch.

As Rogers confidence in his new pitch mix improved, so did his results. After July 28th, he didn’t give up another earned run all season, an incredible run spanning 28 appearances, during which Rogers gave up a .119 avg., .147 wOBA, and a K/BB of 9.7.

Extrapolating Rogers second half numbers to a full season is a mouthwatering, if foolish prospect. After the 2018 All-Star break, Rogers was the second most valuable reliever in baseball and raised his K/9 to 11.00. Parsing those numbers out over a full season and Rogers is the fifth most valuable reliever in MLB.

While this may be an unrealistic expectation for 2019, Rogers is an incredible success story in player development and a high leverage relief pitching option the Twins should build their bullpen around for the foreseeable future.