Ripple Effects: Infield Out of Order

This piece continues our Ripple Effects series, digging into the multiple factors that led to the Twins' disappointing finish and their interactions with one another. For more, see Matthew Taylor's piece about the self-defeating decision to slash payroll; Gregg Masterson's on the way the team's existing payroll commitments conflict with a reduction like this one; and Eric Blonigen's breakdown of the team's failure to make meaningful, trusting connections with their fan base over the last year.

For the purpose of this exercise, we are going to look at the contributions (or, errr, lackthereof) from the five infield positions as a group starting on Aug. 18th, through the end of the season. It's on that date that the Twins started the day 70-53 and stood just two games behind the Guardians for first place in the AL Central. At that time, they were firmly in an AL Wild Card spot. You know what happened next, but let's talk about a particular part of what happened next.

We’ll start by looking at how the infield group impacted the offense, before diving into their fielding metrics.

Struggles At The Plate
While there were bright spots within the group (namely Carlos Santana, Kyle Farmer and the little bit of Carlos Correa we actually saw), the infield unit batted a putrid .221/.284/.340, good for a 77 wRC+. To make matters worse, of the 785 plate appearances the group accrued, almost 52% came while hitting in the top half of the lineup, and just over 40% came with runners on base. Putting it plainly, in the most crucial points at the most crucial time of the season some of Minnesota's most critical hitters didn't meet the moment--over and over again.

Christian Vázquez wasn't brought in via free agency in 2023 because of his ability at the plate, but a .426 OPS with a 16:2 K:BB ratio is inexcusable, especially considering that he and Ryan Jeffers continued to evenly split time behind the plate while Jeffers was producing at a league-average clip. What's worse is that, across 24 plate appearances with runners on base, the 34-year-old veteran struck out as much as he put the ball in play.

Jose Miranda, who spent time at both infield corners, didn't register a walk across 55 plate appearances to close out the season. Miranda spent the first four months of the season as arguably the Twins' best hitter, then went pear-shaped for the final two months--and especially the last 39 games, wherein he had only two extra base hits and carried a wRC+ of 43. Unsurprisingly, his hard-hit rate of 18.6% was one of the worst on the team.

It's hard to pin a lot of blame on the rookie Brooks Lee, who played all around the diamond except first, given his lack of experience and the fact he was returning from injury. In his first playoff push, however, the 23-year-old used 66 at-bats to generate a 46.4% ground ball rate and a 23.2% hard hit rate while only walking twice. Turns out “just put the ball in play” isn't an end-all, be-all solution to hitting woes. Who knew?

I don't know what happened to the 2023 version of Edouard Julien, but what we saw in the final 39 games really just encapsulated his 2024 campaign. Things went so poorly for him that I can't even say I was surprised or disappointed by the last month and a half of the season. Instead, the lifeless at-bats and shoddy defense at the keystone were just… expected. You could see him carrying the weight of his own struggles around the field with him, unable to win the mental battles that make the physical ones even reachable.

Willi Castro has to get some blame too, because he had 75 plate appearances across a smattering of games on the dirt in the final weeks. The Twins' most valuable player (from a marginal dollars per win perspective) over the last two years mustered a slash line of .180/.284/.262 and a wRC+ of 61, although he did walk nine times despite the low OBP.

The last 39 games were one protracted slump for Royce Lewis, who had the worst stretch of his young career. His strikeout rate ballooned to 25.3%, and his OPS plummeted to .478. His ability to handle fastballs came and went all season, but he hit rock bottom in September, where he had a .181 wOBA against the offering. The guy who has come through in a myriad of clutch moments in his short time with the Twins had just two hits in high-leverage situations, a double and a home run. The old adage tells us that hitting is contagious. So, it would seem, is not hitting, and the team's hype man is a major reason the Twins season ended on Sept. 29.

Defensive Dissonance
As a group, the infield defense was a strength for most of the season. As you might suspect, that wasn't the case in September. That may be no more evident than seeing that opponents reached base at a .316 clip on ground balls over the final six weeks, compared to .252 prior to Aug. 18.

Looking at Outs Above Average (OAA) for the month of September, Carlos Santana graded out as the only plus defender; the rest of the infielders combined for -12 OAA. For reference, the same group combined for 11 OAA for the first five months of the season. Lastly, while FIP reflects the defense of the entire team, it's worth noting that the pitching staff went from the sixth-best FIP up to Aug. 18 to 15th through the rest of the season. Given their inability to trust the fielders behind them, one can assume the infield played a sizable role in that discrepancy.

The Great Collapse of 2024 may not just be the worst in organizational history, but has to be up there in Minnesota sports history. While everyone played a role, and the spotlight has been on ownership and the bullpen, the infielders also need to be held accountable for their inability to perform when it mattered most.