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    Responsibility


    Steven BUHR

    I suppose this is what we asked for, Twins fans. Our team is playing “meaningful games” in August. Technically, they even continue to possess the second American League wild card spot (for a few more hours anyway).

    Entering the season, if someone had told us that our Twins would be right in the thick of the hunt for even a wild card postseason spot, I think most of us would have smiled and said, “thank you.”

    Image courtesy of Steve Buhr

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    Some of us have had some elevated hopes for 2016 and even more would have projected 2017 as a reasonable goal to see the Twins contending for the postseason. But 2015? No, not really. There were just too many question marks and, frankly, calling some areas of the Twins Opening Day roster “question marks” would have been being generous.

    So, given this unexpected bonus of meaningful play in August, why don’t I feel like celebrating?

    To begin with, it’s not like the Twins’ hold on that final wild card spot is exactly something you’d call a death grip. OK, bad wording. Maybe that’s exactly what you would call it, as in, “they are about to lose that grip and see their season die.”

    The Twins enter Monday with a one game lead over Baltimore and Toronto, a three game lead over Tampa and Texas, and a 3.5 game lead over Detroit and Chicago. That’s a lot of competition and it doesn’t even include the Angels, who currently hold the first wild card spot, just one game ahead of Minnesota.

    Certainly, the front offices of some of those teams have already decided not to even try to compete for a spot in the league’s one-game, win or go home, wild card play-in game. Detroit and Tampa appear to be selling off parts. I’m not sure what the White Sox front office is doing, other than apparently trying to overcome the shock of discovering they’re actually not mathematically eliminated from the postseason yet.

    Then again, as a Twins fan, I probably shouldn’t be too critical of another organization’s inertia in the face of unexpected contention for the postseason.

    After all, while Chicago has only recently pulled themselves in to the hunt by winning a whole bunch of games in a row, the folks running the Twins have had an entire season to get acclimated to the fact that their guys actually have a shot at doing more than just playing meaningful games this late. And yet, the Twins front office gave no indication at the trading deadline that they had noticed.

    That’s not really true, of course. Twins General Manager Terry Ryan did give such indications. He indicated to the media on more than one occasion last week that he intended be active in the trade market in an effort to improve his ball club.

    Then he did nothing.

    And no, don’t even try to claim with a straight face that adding Kevin Jepsen, the relief pitcher they acquired from the Rays for two minor league pitchers, constitutes making a serious bid to improve the Twins.

    Pioneer-Press Twins beat reporter Mike Berardino asked Ryan last week if the GM felt a responsibility to the current players to improve the roster. His reply:

    “That’s correct,” Ryan said. “That would be very accurate. I know that. There’s nobody that’s more sensitive to that than me. I know they’ve done a hell of a job of getting to this point and we’re in a good position. Now it’s my responsibility to help the cause.”

    Then Ryan went out and added Kevin Jepsen and – nothing else.

    As a result, the Twins open a four-game series with one of the teams who is nipping at their heels in the wild card standings, the Blue Jays, without the benefit of any significant help from their front office.

    Meanwhile, those Blue Jays have added Troy Tulowitzki, David Price and Ben Revere in the past few days. That’s a top of the rotation starting pitcher, a good-hitting veteran shortstop and a center fielder who improves their club’s defense (and, therefore, their pitching as a whole).

    Maybe this was never going to be the year the Twins made a postseason run. It certainly wouldn’t help their cause that Ervin Santana won’t be available to them in the postseason, even if they found themselves there as a team.

    But Ryan was right. This collection of ballplayers has worked hard, exceeding everyone’s expectations, and he owed them a better result last week.

    I’m not suggesting he should have traded away a bunch of top prospects for rental players. You don’t mortgage your entire future on a slim chance at the brass ring in 2015. But you don’t pay lip service and then try to convince the guys in your clubhouse that adding a middle inning reliever is all you could come up with to give them a boost while their nearest competitors are making serious improvements.

    Making no deal at all – just saying right out loud that you don’t think this year’s club is built to not only get a wild card, but contend in the postseason once they get there – and explaining that you are not willing to give up any of your above average prospects at all in this environment would have been courageous. Likewise, making Toronto-sized mega deals that would have cost you some serious prospects would have been courageous.

    Taking either road would have required some real stones, because either approach would have been controversial and would have met with loud criticism from the fan base. Yet either approach would have at least been defensible.

    Dipping your toes in the water and giving up a couple of decent, but very young, pitching prospects for a middle reliever, but doing absolutely nothing else, is neither courageous nor defensible, in my opinion.

    Of course, we know that the end of the non-waiver trade deadline in July does not necessarily constitute the end of all trade opportunities. Terry Ryan can still improve this year’s Twins roster in August via waiver trades. If he does, I'll be among the first to applaud.

    But waiting too long to provide that help is a real concern and making deals later this month certainly won't help the Twins this week in Toronto.

    Ryan is sending Paul Molitor in to Toronto this week to fend off one of his club’s closest challengers and Molitor’s club is seriously outmanned. The reason is as simple as it was preventable. Molitor’s club was not given the kind of boost that the Blue Jays got from their GM last week and that was, by his own admission, Terry Ryan’s responsibility.

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    Because there's no evidence to suggest otherwise, either this year or using past history as a guide.

     

    We've already won 6 games against those teams this year (having yet to play Houston), so winning one game against them isn't that difficult a task.

     

    And nobody is suggesting that the team should have made themselves the prohibitive favorite to the win the WS on July 31.  Toronto didn't even do that.  That's not necessary to improve the team, and it's not necessary to "absolutely" mortgage any future to simply achieve some improvement.

     

    Do you also advocate that we quit seriously trying to win games against supposedly better opponents that are tied in the 6th inning?  That's where we're at in the season right now.

     

    Again, do you have concrete proof that Terry Ryan has been watching Golden Girls re-runs while letting phone calls go to a full voicemail?  If not, you can't with any authority say that TR has done nothing, this year or any other.  Absence of proof (i.e., results) is not proof of absence.

     

    And sure, we've won 6 games against our wild card opponents.  But we've also lost 4 against those teams.  Furthermore, 2 of those wins against the Jays came in May, when we were on fire and they didn't have Tulo and Price.  One was against the Angels when Santana shut them down, but we won't have him in the postseason.  The other three were against Baltimore during our most recent hot streak when they were stone-cold (lost 5 of their past 7).

     

    Perhaps it was St. peter that said it in previous years.....and I found one from him for sure that said it in 2014 (St. Peter that is). I'll just concede this is the first year Terry said they should contend late in the season.

    2013 for St. Peter, actually.

     

    http://twinsdaily.com/topic/4951-dave-st-peter-well-be-competetive/

     

    Ok, but you can't just judge based purely on results when trying to determine if you should emulate a past action in the future.  For example, if Capps had been lights out in 2010, and Ramos had flamed out and turned into a 4A player, would you say the Twins should always trade top 100 catching prospects for "proven" closers?  If Shane Robinson pinch-hits for Miguel Sano in the 9th inning, and hits a go-ahead homer, should he always pinch-hit for Sano in the 9th?  If the results aren't matching what your process says they should be, then go ahead and evaluate the process.

    A lot of people like my post.

     

    Again, do you have concrete proof that Terry Ryan has been watching Golden Girls re-runs while letting phone calls go to a full voicemail?  If not, you can't with any authority say that TR has done nothing, this year or any other.  Absence of proof (i.e., results) is not proof of absence.

     

     

    No, but he made it pretty clear there wasn't going to be anything very important.  He wouldn't be looking for any saviors.

     

    It's never a good idea to trade your #1 position prospect for a "proven closer" or any other reliever.  That's what I'm going on.  Then they lied that Capps had a role in making the playoffs in 2010.  Capps had nothing to do with us making the playoffs.  We made it by like 7 games or something.  It was a horrible trade at the time and just as horrible now.  I don't care how it panned out.  It was never going to be a good trade and I knew that.  Even if we won the WS in 2010, it was a bad trade because Capps was not any better than Rauch.  And we win the division easily with Rauch or anyone else closing games in 2010 anyway.

     

    But your point, or rather Judd's point that you agreed with, was that TR is wrong to say he would trade Ramos for Capps again, because it didn't work out, and he needs to learn from that.  You're saying that TR should ignore any indicators on whether it would have worked or not, and simply accept that it didn't.  I agree that you should never trade a top prospect for a reliever, and I'd be horrified if the Twins traded Kepler for Papelbon, or something like that.  But it wouldn't be because one trade didn't work out in our favor 5 years ago.  That kind of thinking means that the Twins shouldn't ever sign another player from Japan, because Nishi was such a disaster.

     

    Again, do you have concrete proof that Terry Ryan has been watching Golden Girls re-runs while letting phone calls go to a full voicemail?  If not, you can't with any authority say that TR has done nothing, this year or any other.  Absence of proof (i.e., results) is not proof of absence.

    You're entitled to your opinion, and I am entitled to mine.  I've backed up my opinion with 17 years of results and media reports.  You are free to back up your opinion with whatever you wish.

     

     

    And sure, we've won 6 games against our wild card opponents.  But we've also lost 4 against those teams.  Furthermore, 2 of those wins against the Jays came in May, when we were on fire and they didn't have Tulo and Price.  One was against the Angels when Santana shut them down, but we won't have him in the postseason.  The other three were against Baltimore during our most recent hot streak when they were stone-cold (lost 5 of their past 7).

    And who's to say what kind of streak these teams will be on come October?  Or who will be suspended or hurt?  Or if Price will even be available to start a wild card game?  (They might need him just to get into the game.)  I am sure glad the 2009 Twins didn't pack it in because the Tigers had an ace in Verlander...

     

    Is not a few games over .500 winning? And what are you implying by using the term "trying"? Criticize his decisions for sure, including his decisions to hold fast, but can we please avoid hinting that there's some kind of effort issue?

     

    Ryan said he expected the team to play meaningful games late in the season. Some people, yourself included, said he was not being forthright in saying that, but we've now discovered he was sincere, right? 

     

    Your question might be rhetorical, mike, but can't we derive at least a modicum of satisfaction from the fact that they're in a place that 90% of us, again yourself included, thought they would not be?

     

    And isn't it a fairly logical extension to think that, if they can be .500 or so in 2015 without a full season of contributions from a ton of guys (Santana, Buxton, Sano, Rosario, Arcia, Santana, Polanco, Vargas, Berrios, Pressly, Tonkin, Pinto and several others), that they can win even more games in 2016?

    I disagree with this. I think there is a real risk that the 2016 team will be worse (record-wise) than this year's team, mostly because I don't think this year's team is nearly as good as their record may indicate:

     

    - Fangraphs (using Baseruns estimate) and Baseball Prospectus (using their Adjusted Standings) both say that this team should be on a ~70 win pace.

    - Since they were 32-21 on June 4, they have been 22-30 - a ~70 win pace.

    - Just looking at April, June, July and August, they are 34-44 - a ~70 win pace.

    - Fangraphs and Baseball Prospectus both project a rest-of-season winning percentage that would be a ~70 win pace.

     

    Basically, this is a 70 win team that had an incredibly fortunate 27 games in May which allowed it to still be in contention, and their "success" will encourage the front office to just bring everyone back and try it again next year, even at positions (SS, C, bullpen) where the team desperately needs improvement. It certainly seems possible that the 2016 team could play better and still end up with a worse record.

     

    I disagree with this. I think there is a real risk that the 2016 team will be worse (record-wise) than this year's team, mostly because I don't think this year's team is nearly as good as their record may indicate:

     

    - Fangraphs (using Baseruns estimate) and Baseball Prospectus (using their Adjusted Standings) both say that this team should be on a ~70 win pace.

    - Since they were 32-21 on June 4, they have been 22-30 - a ~70 win pace.

    - Just looking at April, June, July and August, they are 34-44 - a ~70 win pace.

    - Fangraphs and Baseball Prospectus both project a rest-of-season winning percentage that would be a ~70 win pace.

     

    Basically, this is a 70 win team that had an incredibly fortunate 27 games in May which allowed it to still be in contention, and their "success" will encourage the front office to just bring everyone back and try it again next year, even at positions (SS, C, bullpen) where the team desperately needs improvement. It certainly seems possible that the 2016 team could play better and still end up with a worse record.

    Considering that's almost exactly what happened for '07 (less the injured players--who were stars!), I am inclined to agree with you.  Hunter, Pelfrey, the Eduardos, and the rest of the gang will be extended to "lace 'em up in '16!"--Plus, Nolasco returns!

    I have enjoyed this season.  We've been able to see a lot of youngsters, we are still in the playoff hunt , and we'll win around 74, 75 games.  It's an improvement and I'm happy with that.  Yes, I wish more had been done at the deadline and there have been some moves I really had issues with, but overall, it's been a fun season.

    It may not be the year to go all-in at the deadline. I can appreciate that.

     

    I wonder though, if the Twins were running away with the division, would it then be OK to make a big trade? Or would a Royals-like record make us think that no improvement would be necessary?

     

    My point is that it seems like either the team isn't good enough yet to really push for a championship... or the team is so good that all the pieces are in place and we don't want to mess with the chemistry.

     

    Either way, we have an excuse to not play at the grown-up table.

    There is also a risk that FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus win projections for the Twins (and others) will be off in both 2015 and 2016. Is there not some precedence for their projections to occasionally be off?

     

    It's certainly debatable, but it's not at all illogical to think that the Twins and their record could be better in 2016.

     

    Considering that's almost exactly what happened for '07 (less the injured players--who were stars!), I am inclined to agree with you.  Hunter, Pelfrey, the Eduardos, and the rest of the gang will be extended to "lace 'em up in '16!"--Plus, Nolasco returns!

     

     

    I can certainly see how you could think this if the only players that come to mind for you are those five players.

     

    There is also a risk that FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus win projections for the Twins (and others) will be off in both 2015 and 2016. Is there not some precedence for their projections to occasionally be off?

     

    It's certainly debatable, but it's not at all illogical to think that the Twins and their record could be better in 2016.

     

    It's funny, but there are actually studies about this on the internet. the projections are usually good, not great, like, much better than random stuff a GM says in the paper, or posters here post......

     

    Hope is not a strategy. Positive outlooks on bad situations is not a strategy. Plenty of research on this as well, also available for free on the internet. Businesses don't succeed by hoping and ignoring their weaknesses. They succeed by acknowledging them and eliminating them.

     

    Perhaps it was St. peter that said it in previous years.....and I found one from him for sure that said it in 2014 (St. Peter that is). I'll just concede this is the first year Terry said they should contend late in the season.

     

    OK, Ryan's off the hook on the "sincerity" issue and on the "stupid expectations" issue.

     

    Now, if it was my team, the first thing I'd do is sit Dave down, tell him to shut his pie hole and leave baseball talk to the baseball people. My second task would be to call the executive search firm to start a search for a new president. Dave was sincere, sadly.

     

    But if you put an ounce of credibility into something he said about baseball, it's your own damn fault. :)

     

    OK, Ryan's off the hook on the "sincerity" issue and on the "stupid expectations" issue.

     

    Now, if it was my team, the first thing I'd do is sit Dave down, tell him to shut his pie hole and leave baseball talk to the baseball people. My second task would be to call the executive search firm to start a search for a new president. Dave was sincere, sadly.

     

    But if you put an ounce of credibility into something he said about baseball, it's your own damn fault. :)

     

    Oh, I didn't for a moment believe they were going to play games in the fall that mattered the last two years, I put zero credibility into his baseball comments. Like I said, I thought it was Ryan.

     

    I guess this year we can finally judge him on his comments. They are coming close to not playing meaningful games this fall.....

     

    It's funny, but there are actually studies about this on the internet. the projections are usually good, not great, like, much better than random stuff a GM says in the paper, or posters here post......

     

    Hope is not a strategy. Positive outlooks on bad situations is not a strategy. Plenty of research on this as well, also available for free on the internet. Businesses don't succeed by hoping and ignoring their weaknesses. They succeed by acknowledging them and eliminating them.

     

     

    Are you implying that the Twins are utilizing hope and positivity as their strategy? The positive outlook is the result of the strategy, not the strategy itself. We can criticize individual moves with credibility, but we can't be credible in suggesting they have a hope and a prayer thing going on here.

     

    You're a sophisticated fan, and you haven't missed the many positive steps they've taken in this rebuild. The Twins are not ignoring their weaknesses. They're addressing them, albeit imperfectly. We may not like what they do, but let's have some balance here. Might you be the one doing the ignoring? ;)

     

    Edited by birdwatcher

     

    Oh, I didn't for a moment believe they were going to play games in the fall that mattered the last two years, I put zero credibility into his baseball comments. Like I said, I thought it was Ryan.

     

    I guess this year we can finally judge him on his comments. They are coming close to not playing meaningful games this fall.....

     

     

    Now now now...let's not change it from late summer to the fall! ;)

    I'm not ignoring anything. This team is neither going all in to compete, or building for the future. They are standing in place, like they always do during the season.

     

    Here is what has happened in the time Ryan has been GM, that he's accountable for.....that matters past this year:

     

    Hughes

    Santana

    Nolasco

    Suzuki

    May

    Meyer

     

    In 3-4 years, he's added 2-3 players that are good when they matter, and 2-4 that are bad. What exactly should make me excited about that?

     

    You can say they aren't ignoring their weaknesses, but I can only judge based on the fact that Nunez has DH'd recently, they added a mediocre bullpen arm, and finally cut Santana after 3 months of being awful. I can only judge on actions, since I can't see the process. I don't see that as really doing much of anything, either for this year, or next year. That's my opinion, not a fact.....but I doubt I'm the only one with that opinion.

    Are you implying that the Twins are utilizing hope and positivity as their strategy? The positive outlook is the result of the strategy, not the strategy itself. We can criticize individual moves with credibility, but we can't be credible in suggesting they have a hope and a prayer thing going on here.

     

    You're a sophisticated fan, and you haven't missed the many positive steps they've taken in this rebuild. The Twins are not ignoring their weaknesses. They're addressing them, albeit imperfectly. We may not like what they do, but let's have some balance here. Might you be the one doing the ignoring? ;)

    OK, I'll bite, bird. What IS the strategy?

     

    The many positive steps?

     

    What weaknesses have they actually addressed? I'll give you throwing a medium amount of dollars at starting pitching. Besides that?




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