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    Responsibility


    Steven BUHR

    I suppose this is what we asked for, Twins fans. Our team is playing “meaningful games” in August. Technically, they even continue to possess the second American League wild card spot (for a few more hours anyway).

    Entering the season, if someone had told us that our Twins would be right in the thick of the hunt for even a wild card postseason spot, I think most of us would have smiled and said, “thank you.”

    Image courtesy of Steve Buhr

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    Some of us have had some elevated hopes for 2016 and even more would have projected 2017 as a reasonable goal to see the Twins contending for the postseason. But 2015? No, not really. There were just too many question marks and, frankly, calling some areas of the Twins Opening Day roster “question marks” would have been being generous.

    So, given this unexpected bonus of meaningful play in August, why don’t I feel like celebrating?

    To begin with, it’s not like the Twins’ hold on that final wild card spot is exactly something you’d call a death grip. OK, bad wording. Maybe that’s exactly what you would call it, as in, “they are about to lose that grip and see their season die.”

    The Twins enter Monday with a one game lead over Baltimore and Toronto, a three game lead over Tampa and Texas, and a 3.5 game lead over Detroit and Chicago. That’s a lot of competition and it doesn’t even include the Angels, who currently hold the first wild card spot, just one game ahead of Minnesota.

    Certainly, the front offices of some of those teams have already decided not to even try to compete for a spot in the league’s one-game, win or go home, wild card play-in game. Detroit and Tampa appear to be selling off parts. I’m not sure what the White Sox front office is doing, other than apparently trying to overcome the shock of discovering they’re actually not mathematically eliminated from the postseason yet.

    Then again, as a Twins fan, I probably shouldn’t be too critical of another organization’s inertia in the face of unexpected contention for the postseason.

    After all, while Chicago has only recently pulled themselves in to the hunt by winning a whole bunch of games in a row, the folks running the Twins have had an entire season to get acclimated to the fact that their guys actually have a shot at doing more than just playing meaningful games this late. And yet, the Twins front office gave no indication at the trading deadline that they had noticed.

    That’s not really true, of course. Twins General Manager Terry Ryan did give such indications. He indicated to the media on more than one occasion last week that he intended be active in the trade market in an effort to improve his ball club.

    Then he did nothing.

    And no, don’t even try to claim with a straight face that adding Kevin Jepsen, the relief pitcher they acquired from the Rays for two minor league pitchers, constitutes making a serious bid to improve the Twins.

    Pioneer-Press Twins beat reporter Mike Berardino asked Ryan last week if the GM felt a responsibility to the current players to improve the roster. His reply:

    “That’s correct,” Ryan said. “That would be very accurate. I know that. There’s nobody that’s more sensitive to that than me. I know they’ve done a hell of a job of getting to this point and we’re in a good position. Now it’s my responsibility to help the cause.”

    Then Ryan went out and added Kevin Jepsen and – nothing else.

    As a result, the Twins open a four-game series with one of the teams who is nipping at their heels in the wild card standings, the Blue Jays, without the benefit of any significant help from their front office.

    Meanwhile, those Blue Jays have added Troy Tulowitzki, David Price and Ben Revere in the past few days. That’s a top of the rotation starting pitcher, a good-hitting veteran shortstop and a center fielder who improves their club’s defense (and, therefore, their pitching as a whole).

    Maybe this was never going to be the year the Twins made a postseason run. It certainly wouldn’t help their cause that Ervin Santana won’t be available to them in the postseason, even if they found themselves there as a team.

    But Ryan was right. This collection of ballplayers has worked hard, exceeding everyone’s expectations, and he owed them a better result last week.

    I’m not suggesting he should have traded away a bunch of top prospects for rental players. You don’t mortgage your entire future on a slim chance at the brass ring in 2015. But you don’t pay lip service and then try to convince the guys in your clubhouse that adding a middle inning reliever is all you could come up with to give them a boost while their nearest competitors are making serious improvements.

    Making no deal at all – just saying right out loud that you don’t think this year’s club is built to not only get a wild card, but contend in the postseason once they get there – and explaining that you are not willing to give up any of your above average prospects at all in this environment would have been courageous. Likewise, making Toronto-sized mega deals that would have cost you some serious prospects would have been courageous.

    Taking either road would have required some real stones, because either approach would have been controversial and would have met with loud criticism from the fan base. Yet either approach would have at least been defensible.

    Dipping your toes in the water and giving up a couple of decent, but very young, pitching prospects for a middle reliever, but doing absolutely nothing else, is neither courageous nor defensible, in my opinion.

    Of course, we know that the end of the non-waiver trade deadline in July does not necessarily constitute the end of all trade opportunities. Terry Ryan can still improve this year’s Twins roster in August via waiver trades. If he does, I'll be among the first to applaud.

    But waiting too long to provide that help is a real concern and making deals later this month certainly won't help the Twins this week in Toronto.

    Ryan is sending Paul Molitor in to Toronto this week to fend off one of his club’s closest challengers and Molitor’s club is seriously outmanned. The reason is as simple as it was preventable. Molitor’s club was not given the kind of boost that the Blue Jays got from their GM last week and that was, by his own admission, Terry Ryan’s responsibility.

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    hmmm...WC game or contention for the next 8-10 years? None of you know who was available and for what. The Jepsen thing is a total bummer. But if you really thought Tulo could be had for Gibson, puuhhhlease. Nolasco for Shields is still my favorite of course.

     

    Let's all take a breath, count to ten and think of what we've been fortunate to enjoy this year. Then, take a step further and picture how unstoppable our Big Mig-Buck-Rosario-Berrios core is going to be for years to come. Ryan gets my respect for his patience and committment to our system.

     

    (bracing myself for negative vibes and...."add comment")

    They could have easily improved the team for a chance at the WC this year without effecting the chance to compete anytime in the next 2-4-6-8-10 years.

    We're not entitled to a winning team. We're entitled to voice our opinions and vote with our wallets and at the voting booth, so complain away, but don't tell us Ryan has some obligation to us that doesn't exist. 

     

    OTOH, if Ryan and the Twins were smarter about the PR ramifications of their decisions, this trade deadline wouldn't happen.

     

    As for judging the GM, people are now pointing out that Ryan shouldn't get credit for the good results we're starting to see from the farm. The irony is that some of the same people were scathingly critical of him when the cupboard was bare. Five dozen people are involved in scouting and development decisions and execution, so he gets only partial ( AND EQUAL!!) blame and credit for the results of the talent pipeline. But he should be fully judged on ALL his decisions, including the ones to NOT act, and unfortunately, we don't really have all the facts to make a fully informed assessment of his performance. And it would be a vacuous assessment in any event because of the lack of meaningful comparison to his peer group. We might know more if the writers would probe more.

     

    I'm giving him an "F" on his latest assignment. I'm disappointed in him, but he didn't owe me anything. And who knows, I might be wrong about it.

    Edited by birdwatcher

     

    Regarding rebuilding the Farm, how much say does Ryan have in drafting?  I'm honestly asking because I have heard from different people.  Some say he does nothing with the draft other than send in the pick, others say he gives some input. 

     

     

    Loosey, I believe Ryan did not even scout our latest first-rounder, which speaks volumes about how he is managing things.

     

    OK.  That attitude is what permits the team to put a competitive but not great  team on the field

    Generally, I agree with that, and I think that historicallly, Minnesota sports fans are guilty of this kind of thing and that's why we're terrible fans, in general (that's a separate argument all together).

     

    But come on, guys! we're just finally crawling out of the basement. The kids we have on the field are playing competitive ball. Unfortunately, that's a HUGE step in the right direction. The plan to let this overwhelming crop of overthrow the old regime is coming to fruition. I'm happy just to let this vision grow a little bit before I start savaging TR for changing course because we've surpassed expectations.

     

     

    Generally, I agree with that, and I think that historicallly, Minnesota sports fans are guilty of this kind of thing and that's why we're terrible fans, in general (that's a separate argument all together).

     

    But come on, guys! we're just finally crawling out of the basement. The kids we have on the field are playing competitive ball. Unfortunately, that's a HUGE step in the right direction. The plan to let this overwhelming crop of overthrow the old regime is coming to fruition. I'm happy just to let this vision grow a little bit before I start savaging TR for changing course because we've surpassed expectations.

     

    cool...when should we expect them to try to win, then, if not this year?

     

    I too was disappointed by the move made at the deadline. I was not disappointed in acquiring Kevin Jepsen, I was disappointed that we didn't acquire anyone better in addition. I have no problems with Jepsen is the 7th inning guy, but I don't want him in the 8th. Is he an upgrade over Casey Fien and Blaine Boyer? Most Likely, but someone like Joaquin Benoit or LaTroy Hawkins would have been far preferable for me.

    I applaud TR for not going after Tulowitzki, however. I was never interested in giving up top prospects. Colorado would have demanded either Gibson or Berrios in addition to probably Max Kepler and perhaps more. That is mortgaging the future, you don't want to do that. 

    I truly believe that the Twins will fade, in fact they already are, but if they somehow stay relevant in the next few weeks, I most definitely would expect TR to be active in the waiver deals.

    I am pretty sure May is the 8th inning guy and Jepsen the 7th inning guy. We just haven't had the opportunity to see this yet.

     

    cool...when should we expect them to try to win, then, if not this year?

     

     

    Is not a few games over .500 winning? And what are you implying by using the term "trying"? Criticize his decisions for sure, including his decisions to hold fast, but can we please avoid hinting that there's some kind of effort issue?

     

    Ryan said he expected the team to play meaningful games late in the season. Some people, yourself included, said he was not being forthright in saying that, but we've now discovered he was sincere, right? 

     

    Your question might be rhetorical, mike, but can't we derive at least a modicum of satisfaction from the fact that they're in a place that 90% of us, again yourself included, thought they would not be?

     

    And isn't it a fairly logical extension to think that, if they can be .500 or so in 2015 without a full season of contributions from a ton of guys (Santana, Buxton, Sano, Rosario, Arcia, Santana, Polanco, Vargas, Berrios, Pressly, Tonkin, Pinto and several others), that they can win even more games in 2016?

    People are posting they should wait until they are more ready to go more all in.....I'm asking when we should expect that. When should we expect it to be expected to be good, not "luck and not something to bet on"? That's really not that hard to understand.

     

    When should we expect them to be good? When should we expect the FO to go all in?

     

    I am pretty sure May is the 8th inning guy and Jepsen the 7th inning guy. We just haven't had the opportunity to see this yet.

     

    I am not simply going off of May being dominant lately and Jepsen looking bad in his first outing. I am also going with they way they have spoken about May, as well as the way they used him in the extra innings loss. In that tied game they had the whole pen available.  In a tied 9th inning they went with their best option in Perkins, which is what several teams do in that situation. If you are still tied in the 10th inning and you feel you have to use your best options in those situations, and Perkins was already used? You likely go next best option. They used May in that situation, then Jepsen.

    Good article summarizing Toronto's lead up to the trade deadline

     

    http://grantland.com/the-triangle/mlb-2015-trade-deadline-alex-anthopolous-interview-david-price-troy-tulowitzki-blue-jays/?ex_cid=GrantlandFB

     

    Interesting read, but it also kind of makes me sad.

     

    Two lines that specifically hit me:

    Self-preservation is a natural instinct, and mortgaging chunks of your future in pursuit of present goals can come with that instinct.

    Terry's self-preservation instincts never need to kick in, because he's got a "let us know when you're done, Terry" Contract. 

     

    “I didn’t sleep a second that night,” Anthopoulos said. “I was too wired.”

    Has Terry Ryan ever been wired in his entire life? I want a GM that gets wired once in a while and can't wait to feel that feeling again

    Edited by amjgt

     

    cool...when should we expect them to try to win, then, if not this year?

    Are you being serious? Because our best hitter is 22. The oldest core OF we have is 25. One of those core OFers is the consensus brightest prospect in baseball. We've got a top-20 guy ready to step into the rotation. But you already knew that. So, "cool" is right. What else do you want? I'll hang up and listen.

     

    Is not a few games over .500 winning? And what are you implying by using the term "trying"? Criticize his decisions for sure, including his decisions to hold fast, but can we please avoid hinting that there's some kind of effort issue?

     

    Ryan said he expected the team to play meaningful games late in the season. Some people, yourself included, said he was not being forthright in saying that, but we've now discovered he was sincere, right? 

     

    Your question might be rhetorical, mike, but can't we derive at least a modicum of satisfaction from the fact that they're in a place that 90% of us, again yourself included, thought they would not be?

     

    And isn't it a fairly logical extension to think that, if they can be .500 or so in 2015 without a full season of contributions from a ton of guys (Santana, Buxton, Sano, Rosario, Arcia, Santana, Polanco, Vargas, Berrios, Pressly, Tonkin, Pinto and several others), that they can win even more games in 2016?

    I think it's entirely fair to question the effort.  I get the impression Ryan doesn't like certain parts of his job, and from that, while it's pure speculation, I speculate that perhaps he doesn't work as hard at those parts as some other GMs do.

     

    I might be way off, who knows?

     

    But I don't picture Ryan burning the phones at 2 AM July 31st, desperataly trying every last avenue to improve his team.  I don't picture him working the room, over and over again, at the winter meetings, setting the groundwork for a deal that winter, or a deal that might come together in late July.

     

    In any case, whether he does that or not, at some point results matter, no?

    I feel like Ryan catches the 10pm 'CCO news then heads to bed with a warm glass of milk.

     

    He dreams of rainbows and butterflies and wakes up at 7:00am sharp.

     

    Breakfast consists of Raisin Bran, half a grapefruit, and decaf coffee which he finishes just before his daily 8:00am morning constitutional.

    Edited by amjgt

     

    Terry has been the GM for 17 years. He has a sub 500 record by over 100 games. His teams have won one playoff series, 13 years ago. His teams have won a total of 6 playoff games, the last 11 years ago.

    You'd have a hard time finding another team GM with that kind of record that still has his job. Terry is what he is and always has been. The problem is Jim Pohlad doesn't care, if he did care there would have been a change a long time ago.

    Did he fire Bill Smith because of his record, no he got fired because  he spent to much money.

    Say what you will about Smith but he went for it and tried to win. The 2010 team was probably the most talented Twins  team ever. A year later he gets fired and the payroll is cut. That says everything.

    Mackey and Judd hit on some good points today. The frustrating part is Mackey can’t make up his mind if he’s pro-TR or anti-TR. He alternates days.

     

    It’s actually Judd that made the good points today, and Mackey couldn’t argue against him because there are no logical arguments against what he was saying.

     

    Judd says it’s a self-awareness problem with the Twinis front office. They look at the Blaine Boyer signing and think "that wasn’t so bad. We did pretty well with that." Instead they should be looking at it and saying, "we can’t keep doing this to ourselves." They probably still look at the Stauffer signing as a success because it could have worked out. That’s also how they look at the Capps/Ramos trade. "It could have worked. Would have done it again." There’s zero accountability. They sure aren’t holding themselves accountable.

     

    They keep doing the same crap over and over again. There’s no way they can learn from their mistakes if they don’t think they’re mistakes.

     

    Mackey and Judd hit on some good points today. The frustrating part is Mackey can’t make up his mind if he’s pro-TR or anti-TR. He alternates days.

     

    It’s actually Judd that made the good points today, and Mackey couldn’t argue against him because there are no logical arguments against what he was saying.

     

    Judd says it’s a self-awareness problem with the Twinis front office. They look at the Blaine Boyer signing and think "that wasn’t so bad. We did pretty well with that." Instead they should be looking at it and saying, "we can’t keep doing this to ourselves." They probably still look at the Stauffer signing as a success because it could have worked out. That’s also how they look at the Capps/Ramos trade. "It could have worked. Would have done it again." There’s zero accountability. They sure aren’t holding themselves accountable.

     

    They keep doing the same crap over and over again. There’s no way they can learn from their mistakes if they don’t think they’re mistakes.

     

    Ok, but you can't just judge based purely on results when trying to determine if you should emulate a past action in the future.  For example, if Capps had been lights out in 2010, and Ramos had flamed out and turned into a 4A player, would you say the Twins should always trade top 100 catching prospects for "proven" closers?  If Shane Robinson pinch-hits for Miguel Sano in the 9th inning, and hits a go-ahead homer, should he always pinch-hit for Sano in the 9th?  If the results aren't matching what your process says they should be, then go ahead and evaluate the process.

     

    Ok, but you can't just judge based purely on results when trying to determine if you should emulate a past action in the future.  For example, if Capps had been lights out in 2010, and Ramos had flamed out and turned into a 4A player, would you say the Twins should always trade top 100 catching prospects for "proven" closers?  If Shane Robinson pinch-hits for Miguel Sano in the 9th inning, and hits a go-ahead homer, should he always pinch-hit for Sano in the 9th?  If the results aren't matching what your process says they should be, then go ahead and evaluate the process.

     

    But if Robinson strikes out, you can't keep PHing him for Sano because "he's due"

    Here's my two thoughts on this subject;

     

    1--anyone saying TR did nothing at the trade deadline that wasn't embedded with him for the week or so prior to the deadline, needs to stop.  How do you know he did nothing?  Maybe he was all in on Tulo, but the Rockies insisted on Gibson/Berrios, Sano, and Kepler?  We know San Diego did nothing because, reportedly, Preller thought they could still make the playoffs, so there was no chance to make a deal there without giving up too much.  Sometimes the best trade is the one you don't make.

     

    2--why are we so interested in the wild card game?  Does anyone think this team can win 1 game against Houston/LAA/Toronto/Baltimore?  If not, what's the point?  Shouldn't the goal be to win the world series, not just play a couple games before being sent home?  If so, this team is so far away from realistically winning the WS that they would have needed to give up so much to get there, the future would absolutely have been mortgaged.

     

    But if Robinson strikes out, you can't keep PHing him for Sano because "he's due"

     

    If the process says you should, then you should.  As in, if Robinson slashes .300/.400/.500 against lefties, and Sano slashes .200/.225/.250 against lefties, you probably should keep PH'ing Robinson for Sano against lefties, even if he does strike out 10 times in a row.

    Edited by Cap'n Piranha

     

    I think it's entirely fair to question the effort.  I get the impression Ryan doesn't like certain parts of his job, and from that, while it's pure speculation, I speculate that perhaps he doesn't work as hard at those parts as some other GMs do.

     

    I might be way off, who knows?

     

    But I don't picture Ryan burning the phones at 2 AM July 31st, desperataly trying every last avenue to improve his team.  I don't picture him working the room, over and over again, at the winter meetings, setting the groundwork for a deal that winter, or a deal that might come together in late July.

     

    In any case, whether he does that or not, at some point results matter, no?

     

     

    I'd suggest that we know very little about his effort and are simply wishing his priorities lined up with yours a bit more, Chief. We can question his priorities without casting dispersion on his work ethic. That said, he probabley views the 2AM guys as impetuous creatures who are confusing activity with results.

     

    Results matter, but one person might think that results are more easily attainable and worse than the next. Hence, two different assessments of the same perceived amount of effort and the same actual results. Now, when it comes to this particular deadline, we agree that the results at first blush appear to be dismal.

     

    Edited by birdwatcher

     

    1--anyone saying TR did nothing at the trade deadline that wasn't embedded with him for the week or so prior to the deadline, needs to stop.  How do you know he did nothing?

    Because there's no evidence to suggest otherwise, either this year or using past history as a guide.

     

    2--why are we so interested in the wild card game?  Does anyone think this team can win 1 game against Houston/LAA/Toronto/Baltimore?  If not, what's the point?  Shouldn't the goal be to win the world series, not just play a couple games before being sent home?  If so, this team is so far away from realistically winning the WS that they would have needed to give up so much to get there, the future would absolutely have been mortgaged.

    We've already won 6 games against those teams this year (having yet to play Houston), so winning one game against them isn't that difficult a task.

     

    And nobody is suggesting that the team should have made themselves the prohibitive favorite to the win the WS on July 31.  Toronto didn't even do that.  That's not necessary to improve the team, and it's not necessary to "absolutely" mortgage any future to simply achieve some improvement.

     

    Do you also advocate that we quit seriously trying to win games against supposedly better opponents that are tied in the 6th inning?  That's where we're at in the season right now.

    Edited by spycake

     

    Ok, but you can't just judge based purely on results when trying to determine if you should emulate a past action in the future.  For example, if Capps had been lights out in 2010, and Ramos had flamed out and turned into a 4A player, would you say the Twins should always trade top 100 catching prospects for "proven" closers?  If Shane Robinson pinch-hits for Miguel Sano in the 9th inning, and hits a go-ahead homer, should he always pinch-hit for Sano in the 9th?  If the results aren't matching what your process says they should be, then go ahead and evaluate the process.

    It's never a good idea to trade your #1 position prospect for a "proven closer" or any other reliever.  That's what I'm going on.  Then they lied that Capps had a role in making the playoffs in 2010.  Capps had nothing to do with us making the playoffs.  We made it by like 7 games or something.  It was a horrible trade at the time and just as horrible now.  I don't care how it panned out.  It was never going to be a good trade and I knew that.  Even if we won the WS in 2010, it was a bad trade because Capps was not any better than Rauch.  And we win the division easily with Rauch or anyone else closing games in 2010 anyway.

     

     

     

     

       Shouldn't the goal be to win the world series, not just play a couple games before being sent home?  If so, this team is so far away from realistically winning the WS that they would have needed to give up so much to get there, the future would absolutely have been mortgaged.

    If the measure is to win the WS, and not just play a couple games before being sent home, then Ryan has never been successful, right?

     

    Because that's the limit of his teams' achievement under his guidance.

     

     

     

    Are you being serious? Because our best hitter is 22. The oldest core OF we have is 25. One of those core OFers is the consensus brightest prospect in baseball. We've got a top-20 guy ready to step into the rotation. But you already knew that. So, "cool" is right. What else do you want? I'll hang up and listen.

     

    I want to know when we should expect them to be good. When can we say "this isn't luck, they should now be good".

    17 years of evidence is pretty good evidence that this isn't just an issue of there NEVER being a good trade available to add talent, isn't it?

     

    And yes, process is important, but so are results. I'm sure Butera followed a great process, or Shane Robinson does, that doesn't mean they should keep their job just because they have that job. Results matter.

     

    Actually, other people said Ryan didn't really mean it, that he had to say that as GM........just like they said he didn't mean it the year before, or the year before. To which I asked, should I believe him, or not?

     

    I'm pretty sure 2015 was the first year out of the last few that Ryan explicitly said he expected the team to play meaningful games late in the season. The vast majority of fans were well aware that Ryan's expectations were lower in 2011-2014 because of his consistent forthright reminders to us that the rebuild would involve no shortcuts. So isn't it unfair to repeatedly say or imply that he told us he actually expected them to be playing meaningful late summer games in those previous years?

    Perhaps it was St. peter that said it in previous years.....and I found one from him for sure that said it in 2014 (St. Peter that is). I'll just concede this is the first year Terry said they should contend late in the season.

    Edited by mike wants wins

     

    If the process says you should, then you should.  As in, if Robinson slashes .300/.400/.500 against lefties, and Sano slashes .200/.225/.250 against lefties, you probably should keep PH'ing Robinson for Sano against lefties, even if he does strike out 10 times in a row.

    But that's a process based on results.  It's the same process that, in the real world, dictates that you don't pinch hit for Sano.

     

    If the Twins had been turning up a lot of dominant relievers from Boyer/Stauffer level signings (the post that prompted you to bring up processes), yeah, this year really shouldn't deter that process.  But they haven't.




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