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    Report From The Fort: Decisions And Divides


    John  Bonnes

    Pop quiz, hot shot: When the rubber meets the road, what makes everything move forward?

    Answer: Friction.

    For a team that was supposedly going through an overhaul, the Twins offseason has been one giant Kumbaya singing chorus. The new organizational leaders, CBO Derek Falvey and General Manager Thad Levine, have emphasized relationships, including the one with incumbent manager Paul Molitor. But the season is starting up, and that is when relationships get tested. It usually starts with roster cuts.

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    All sides say that Molitor and the new front office are getting along very well. “It’s been very comfortable,’ says Molitor. His boss agrees. “[Molitor] and I have had really candid conversations about the roster all the way through spring training,” said Falvey this weekend. “I don’t think it will change. It gets harder as you get to 25, but I think we’ll be in a good place coming out of it.”

    The truth is that it gets exponentially harder once you get to 25, because there are players who, if they don’t make the roster, are likely lost to the organization. If there is going to be a disagreement between the front office and the coaching staff, it’s going to happen this week with a few of the last roster spots.

    The conflict is that the coach and front office have different priorities. Everyone understands that. “Paul’s job is to focus exclusively on what’s happening now and putting the best team out on the field,” said Falvey. “My job is to think a little more broadly about the long term path of the organization.“

    Those diverging responsibilities differ most obviously in the last two spots in the bullpen.

    For the last right-handed reliever, Alex Wimmers looks like the coaching staff’s preferred option over Michael Tonkin. Wimmers has been seeing time earlier and earlier and getting his manager’s praise. See how many compliments you can count in this next paragraph.

    “He’s had a really good camp,” said Molitor after Wimmers last outing. “He did a nice job last year. I mean, there was a few walks, but it’s not like he misfires all the time. He throws all four pitches out of the bullpen, which make him unique. He doesn’t back down from people; I like that he has good presence. You don’t see a change in body language when a guy gets a hit or a walk or whatever. He just seems to be very steady out there. He’s had a lot of nice innings down here. We’ve seen all his pitches. The changeup has been a really good pitch for him this spring.”

    Tonkin, meanwhile, has show the same thing this year that he’s shown the last couple of years. He has a tantalizing mid 90s fastball. It strikes people out, including 10 in the 11 innings he has pitched this spring. He also gives up home runs, including three this spring. Plus, this year he’s added to the debit side of the ledger; he’s walked six guys in those 11 innings.

    However, Michael Tonkin is out of options, meaning that if he doesn’t make the 25-man roster, he would need to be offered free-of-charge to all 29 other teams. If anyone can find a place for him on their 25-man roster, they get him. And you can bet that the front office, confronted with an organization that has struggled to find pitching for the last six years, would like to keep that arm around and see if they could have a chance to tap his potential. That’s harder to do when he’s playing for the Pirates.

    The same question applies to the last spot in the bullpen, or the “swingman” who is often used to throw several innings when a starter is knocked out of a game early. Nick Tepesch has been getting starts in front of Justin Haley for the last couple games. For that matter, the Twins have had Tyler Duffey, Jose Berrios (already demoted) and Adalberto Mejia competing for the fifth spot in the rotation, and any of them would make a good cleanup option, too.

    But Justin Haley is a Rule 5 pick, and if the Twins don’t keep him on the 25-man roster (or disabled list) for the entirety of the 2017 season, he’ll need to be offered back to the Red Sox. Haley hasn’t pitched particularly well in camp, as his 6.08 ERA suggests. But in an organization starved for pitching, adding a 25-year-old who has struck out almost a guy per inning in spring training is a good idea. Especially if his role is mostly to throw strikes in games that are already lost.

    There are other possible challenges, though they appear less significant. If ByungHo Park makes the roster as the starting designated hitter and Chris Gimenez makes the roster as the backup catcher, both must be added to the 40-man roster. One of those spots seems straight-forward: Glen Perkins appears to be a likely candidate for the 60 day DL, which opens a spot.

    But the other means dropping someone. That doesn’t appear to be a huge issue. “I think we’re fine,” said Molitor regarding finding room on the 40-man.

    There surely have been tests outside the public’s view between the front office and their manager this offseason, but cementing a 25-man roster raises the ante.

    For his part, Falvey doesn’t anticipate a lot of drama. “I’ve only been around groups that make [these decisions] together. And I’d like to do that with Paul and with Thad and with our group,” he said. “Ultimately, I’m responsible for our baseball operations, so that [decisionmaker] will be me, but I’m confident we’ll all get to a place where we feel good about the outcome with the 25-man [roster] at the end.”

    They may all feel good. But the way forward likely involves a little friction.

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    agreed, but I can see a scenario where Haley and Wimmers are both in long relief based on how Falvine feels about the roatation. Maybe not opening day, but short starts and taxed bullpen with no optionable pitchers loom on the horizon.

    Sure, if you need a fresh arm at some point, call up Wimmers to pair with Haley. I don't care. But it shouldn't be plan A.  If they didn't like Tonkin, they've had all offseason to find a better project on which to invest that roster spot. I'll be disappointed if the best they could manage was Wimmers, a guy who cleared waivers himself at the beginning of the offseason despite having all 3 options remaining.

    The Twins do not have a shortage of pitchers of the caliber of Wimmers, Haley, Tonkin, and Tepesch. These are fungible assets. The best way to move forward in this case is to REDUCE friction by picking your (temporary) poison and letting two guys go. And hopefully, Molitor and Falvey don't create friction by caring a whole lot about which ones go bye-bye.

     

    The Twins do not have a shortage of pitchers of the caliber of Wimmers, Haley, Tonkin, and Tepesch. These are fungible assets. The best way to move forward in this case is to REDUCE friction by picking your (temporary) poison and letting two guys go. And hopefully, Molitor and Falvey don't create friction by caring a whole lot about which ones go bye-bye.

     

    this. 100% this. 

    The big question for me on the rotation is Phil Hughes.  After his last performance I would say that he is showing no progress.   I know spring training is for working on things, but in his case he should be working on being a high rotation starter again and what I am seeing is the HR ball and no put away.  Somehow I envision he and Tonkins teaming up on his starts and setting a new record for HRs by the opposition.  

     

    Since I cannot see the games and rely on TD and other sources plus the box scores I have to dig to understand.  Here is an interesting set of comparisons:

    Year W L ERA G GS SV IP SO WHIP
    2017 Spring Training Stats 1 2 6.55 6 6 0 22.0 12 1.59
    Spring Training Career Stats* 9 9 4.47 52 40 1 179.1 126 1.36
    2016 Stats 1 7 5.95 12 11 0 59.0 34 1.51
    MLB Career Stats 84 76 4.41 253 200 3 1204.2 970 1.29

    These are from http://m.mlb.com/player/461833/phil-hughes

    What I find interesting is the comparison between spring 2017 and his long record of ST experiences.   An era that is 2 above his average is startling.  A whip that is .20 above average for a control pitcher is unnerving.    He is a ten year MLB vet.  After a very bad injury plagued year this is far from a good sign for the team when he is expected to be one of the top three in the rotation. 

    Sure, if you need a fresh arm at some point, call up Wimmers to pair with Haley. I don't care. But it shouldn't be plan A. If they didn't like Tonkin, they've had all offseason to find a better project on which to invest that roster spot. I'll be disappointed if the best they could manage was Wimmers, a guy who cleared waivers himself at the beginning of the offseason despite having all 3 options remaining.

    of 14 options for 12 pitchers on the opening day roster about 4 of them SHOULD be plan A.

    Yes, Tonkin throws hard, but he cannot get his breaking stuff over and they just sit on his fastball.  He has had plenty of opportunities, no problem DFA.  Danny Santana, John Ryan Murphy, Michael Tonkin, Buddy Boshers, plus move Perkins to the 60-day.  There's five spots, adding Park, Gimenez and Wimmers gives you two left.  Haley would just be blocking other guys, so I'd give him back also.  

    http://www.twincities.com/2017/03/28/minnesota-twins-reliever-michael-tonkin-polishing-a-new-cutter/

    Tonkin apparently throwing a cutter now.  He says he can't throw it for strikes.  I suggested I was done with him last year.  I dunno.  He's relatively close to being effective.  I'd keep him for a little while I guess.  Or keep an eye on the waiver wire for final cuts.  We should definitely keep a roster spot available for that.

     

    Yes, Tonkin throws hard, but he cannot get his breaking stuff over and they just sit on his fastball.  He has had plenty of opportunities, no problem DFA.  Danny Santana, John Ryan Murphy, Michael Tonkin, Buddy Boshers, plus move Perkins to the 60-day.  There's five spots, adding Park, Gimenez and Wimmers gives you two left.  Haley would just be blocking other guys, so I'd give him back also.  

    I'm with you except for Boshers. Too little data to be sure that last year was a fluke. SIERA, FIP and xFIP suggest it wasn't. And I agree that Haley could go.

    This team is trying to determine who they should keep from one of the worst pitching staffs of 2016. Some team out there is likely going to DFA someone who is better than some of the players we have. If we are watching carefully we may find a couple of them to help our team.

    I'll be very curious to see what our new FO does here.

    Some team out there is likely going to DFA someone who is better than some of the players we have. If we are watching carefully we may find a couple of them to help our team.

    Better than what we have, but still not good enough for a contending team, presumably.

     

    If they DFA someone due to three options having been exercised, he's probably not young with upside anymore. And if he had trade value, he'd be part of a trade. I'm not saying not to scour the waiver wire, but I don't think it's any path to riches for a rebuilding team. We have stopgaps galore already.

    But who will still be pitching for the Twins, or in the organization, come 2018 and especially 2019.

     

    Wimmers was showing signs of success after battling injuries over the past few seasons. He was actually the closer at Rochester and got a cup-of-coffee with the Twins, finally, last season -- which is what you hope happens to 1st round draft choices. But because of age and roster number crunches, they felt Boshers was worth more than Wimmers and no one claimed him and Wimmers looking in the mirror still felt the Twins were good for a go and signed a minor league contract.

     

    Tonkin the Twins don't want to lose yet. But eventually, they will. I don't see him being back next season at all. 

     

    And Haley. Okay, an okay pick-up, but we have significant depth of 41st-roster men already from ALL the minor league free agent signings.

     

    The bigger question is HOW WILL THE TWINS win with the team they are putting on the field. How many real changes have they made - Castro and Gimenez, Breslow and Belisle. Throw in Haley. That is it. I'm sure the cheering sections are being established right now in different parts of Target Field.

     

    Would the Twins have been better served to just push the prospects. You expect that will happen, especially in the bullpen, and if the veteran rotation implodes you should be able to throw the same poitches with Berrios, Wheeler, Mejias, Gonsalves and Stewart, who will ALL be here in the next couple of seasons more than likely, unless they pitch so brilliantly in the minors that the Twins feel a need to trade them.

     

    Again, one doesn't see a lot of worth in the Twins 25 above and beyond the prospects who really are already seasoned from a year or two and have to show that they belong. Otherwise, the chances of someone claiming a Tonkin, Duffey...heck, teams passed on Park who looks like he might've been a steal if someone was smart outside of the Twins. 

     

    Lets hope Polanco, Sano, Kepler, Buxton, Rosario show us great play. Quite frankly there is no one in the current rotation or even the bullpen that I would care to see on Opening Day 2019.

     

    When you see the makeup of the AAA and AA pitching staffs, you will have an idea of when you might see a pitcher. Tepesch or Wimmers are the early season disaster happened relievers. Berrios and the loser of the 5th starter battle will be   Reed and Chargois by May to replace the dregs. Plenty in AA that need to move forward  It shall be interesting to see if there are any philosophical changes (hint, more aggressive) in mid season advancement of prospects.




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