Player Predictions: RF Miguel Sano

Word of Warning: I fear that Sano’s debut performance, along with the prospect status bestowed upon him for almost a decade now, may have set the bar unfairly high for the slugger. As you’ll see below, I am as guilty as anyone in that category. I think it’s important to remember that he will not turn 23-years-old until May 11.

KEY NUMBERS

15.8% - Everyone knows that Miguel Sano will be breaking the Twins single-season strikeout record in 2016. Not only did he end up working a full count in 28% of his at-bats (hat tip Nick Nelson), but got on via the walk 15.8% of the time. Next highest in the American League last year was Mike Trout at 21%.

It’s amazing to think that a guy who could break not only the Twins single-season record for strikeouts but also the MLB record puts together great at-bats. That said, if he can reduce the strikeouts, imagine how much more damage he can do.

15.8% of his plate appearances resulted in a walk, but don’t worry. It is highly unlikely that he will break the Twins record. In fact, Harmon Killebrew topped that number in eight seasons with the Twins, peaking in 1969 when he walked in 20.5% of his 707 plate appearances.

And just for some comparison, Joe Mauer's best season in terms of walk percentage was 14.0% in 2012. His career walk rate is 11.9%. In other words, Miguel Sano will likely walk at a significantly higher rate than Joe Mauer ever has in his career.

3 - Miguel Sano should bat third in the Twins lineup most games for several reasons. First, it would sure be nice for him to get a plate appearances right away in the first inning. Sure, if he bats fourth, if he hits in the first inning, it is with a runner on base. However, for the same reason we don’t mind Brian Dozier putting the Twins ahead 1-0 in the first, having Sano make that possible each game is also good. If Dozier and Mauer are on base, it could be two or three to nothing. After the first inning, it is also possible that Byron Buxton will be on base when Sano comes to the plate.

In 2015, Twins fourth batters came to the plate 688 times. Their number three hitters had 703 times. While it’s only 2.5 to 3.0 plate appearances per month, it adds up over the course of the year.

PREDICTIONS

Miguel Sano: 554 At-bats, .287/.398/.538 (.936), 37 doubles, 1 triples, 35 home runs.

• The Twins are going to want Sano in the lineup every day. He will continue to be thrown into right field, through the good, the bad and the ugly most days. When he isn’t, it is likely he will get quite a few games as a DH as well. That will allow Byung Ho Park to get some time at first base and give Joe Mauer a few days off.
  
• I don’t expect Sano to break the single-season MLB strikeout record (223), but he will certainly break Dozier’s strikeout record at 148.
  
• While I want to say that he won’t walk as often as he did in 2015 (15.8%), I have a hard time believing that he will walk any less. Hence, I gave him an IsoD of .111. I also think that he has the ability to hit for a decent average too. I’m not saying he’s going to hit .330 like he did for a half-season in Ft. Myers, but I don’t think .300 is out of the realm of possibility for him in time.
  
• As I was thinking through some predictions for Sano in 2016, one thought came to my mind. If Miguel Sano were to spend the full season with the Twins and stay healthy, what if he “only” hit 29 home runs. Would Twins fans be disappointed? There seems to be a general acceptance that he is a given to hit 35 homers a year, but that isn’t as easy as people want to think. That said, I put him at 35 home runs.
  
• If he were to post the .936 OPS that I suggest above, only six players in MLB had an OPS higher than that in 2015.
  

YOUR TURN

Your turn. Share your thoughts on and predictions on Miguel Sano in 2016. We can take a look back at the end of the season and see how we did.

PREVIOUS PREDICTIONS

Kurt Suzuki/John Ryan Murphy

Joe Mauer

Brian Dozier

Trevor Plouffe

Eduardo Escobar

Eddie Rosario

Byron Buxton