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    On Unsustainable Success And Traps

    Nick Nelson

    By Nick Nelson

    A victory over Toronto on Sunday that capped off a 20-win month and left the Twins with the best record in the American League suddenly catapulted them into the national consciousness, with Minnesota gracing the front page of ESPN.com's MLB section on Monday morning and appearing across all sorts of major media outlets.

    Still, there is a well warranted sense of skepticism surrounding this team. Smoke and mirrors wouldn't necessarily be accurate – the Twins are pitching well and scoring runs – but their winning ways have been characterized by clutch hitting and unprecedented pitching performances. Neither seems likely to completely sustain.

    As such, most people believe that this club, as currently constituted, is due for some serious regression. That's probably true. But it also misses the bigger picture.

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    Last week, Grantland published a feature with a headline that asked "Are the Twins for real?" The conclusion was, basically, no. On Monday, Dave Cameron of FanGraphs served a similar note of caution and warned against the front office falling into the trap of believing in a hot start and mistakenly going into "Buy" mode, loading up for a 2015 run at the expense of building for the future.

    These viewpoints are not inaccurate, in the sense that a team whose success is built so acutely around rising to the occasion in high-leverage situations is going to come back to Earth when things inevitably even out. But this is a transitional roster that stands to see a lot of change between now and September, which is both why we should lend a bit more credibility to their chances of hanging around, and why the notion of any sort of significant "Buy" moves at the trade deadline is silly.

    Back at the beginning of May, I observed that things were going according to plan for the Twins; they were a game above .500 and their weaknesses lined up with areas of strength in the minor-league system.

    Now, they're 10 games above .500 and the latter point remains true. This organization has a great deal of depth in the high minors, with many potential reinforcements waiting in the wings. Even if they did decide they wanted to buy and go all in for 2015 (which ain't exactly Terry Ryan's MO), what position would they target?

    They're not going to look for starting pitching with numerous options available in the minors and Ervin Santana due back in a month. They're not going to make a mega-deal for a shortstop with Eduardo Escobar on hand and Jorge Polanco tearing up Double-A. They're not going to trade valuable assets for a DH when they can try out Josmil Pinto or Oswaldo Arcia or Kennys Vargas there.

    This isn't to say that the Twins will have no problem plugging any leak that springs up. But they have already have the tools to try and fix them without needing to pony up at the hardware store. And it goes without saying that they benefit more, long-term, from giving their homegrown players a chance to contribute and make a difference rather than dealing away future assets for a rental. Terry Ryan, of all people, is aware of that.

    So sit back and enjoy the ride as long as it lasts. There's really no need to worry that the Twins' sudden and unexpected success is going to cause them to do anything that hinders their big-picture plans.

    But if we're lucky, we might get to see some talented young players make an impact on a pennant race.

    Nick is a co-founder of Twins Daily who's been writing about the team for more than 15 years.
    Follow Nick Nelson on Twitter: NickNelsonMN

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    h2oface

    h2oface 8,909

  • Old-Timey Member

    • Posted (edited)

     

    So, H2OFACE you'd like to trade two of the Twins top prospects in Polanco and Meyer for Tulo who is a 30 year old SS who has never played a full season in the majors.

     

    Yes...... that is part of what I just proposed with further explanation.....

    and/or Colorado's choices in other possible prospects.

     

    I'm glad you're not the GM for the Twins.

     

    I think you could make your same points without the "I'm glad you're not the GM for the Twins", don't you?

     

    In 46 games at AA Polanco is hitting .318 with 27 runs and 24 RBI's. He is only 21 years old and is on the verge of at least moving up to AAA. You say we have plenty of SS in case Tulo gets injured, but with him it's not an IF he gets injured it's a WHEN he get injured. There is no reason to trade for an expensive, soon to be over the hill SS that benefits for playing half his games in Colorado.

    And what if Tulos's injuries are behind him? And what if he does sustain? And what if Polanco is not the future shortstop but Gordon is?.... in 4 to 5 years, just in time to replace Tulo? Polanco and Santana both have fielding ability questions. No prospect is a sure thing. Either way, you don't need both or all three or 4. Remember the amazing haul for Johan Santana? Will Santana and Escobar become another Rivas/Valencia/Florimon/Parmalee that you yo-yo back in forth from AAA to the show, can rake in the minors but fail everytime in the show?..... and then finally give up on them and get nothing in return? Or do you go with arguably the best all around shortstop in the show in the middle of his prime years as a team leader in the infield leader position for the rest of the new youth coming up?

    Polanco could be great. Gordon could become great. Or not. Tulo is. The main point is that you can make a mega-deal to vastly improve the team right now without ruining plans for the future. You can't make 10 of them, but you can make at least one.

    Edited by h2oface
    h2oface

    h2oface 8,909

  • Old-Timey Member

    • Posted (edited)

     

    Fear not, this wouldn't be enough to get Tulo.

    Stated as fact and not opinion, but I think it is opinion, and no one knows what it would take yet, but it is highly rumored that Tulo will be traded. I contend, and now repeat, it is a start to the conversation..... one doesn't even know what Colorado would want yet. There are plenty of redundant pieces in the minors that are very good prospects, but many of the same eventual pieces. The trick is to trade some while their up side is shouting and the downside hasn't gotten exposed to much to make them lose value.... like the talk is about Alex Meyer's current value dropping to very low.

    Edited by h2oface
    drjim

    drjim 7,100

  • Provisional Member

    • Posted

     

    Stated as fact and not opinion, but I think it is opinion, and no one knows. I contend, and now repeat, it is a start to the conversation..... one doesn't even know what Colorado would want yet. There are plenty of redundant pieces in the minors that are very good prospects, but many of the same eventual pieces. The trick is to trade some while their up side is shouting and the downside hasn't gotten exposed to much to make them lose value.... like the talk is about Alex Meyer's current value dropping to very low.

     

    To clarify, I would completely be on board with checking in on Tulo. Just don't think you are getting him without one of the big three.

    Mike Sixel

    Mike Sixel 55,011

  • Old-Timey Member

    • Posted

     

    I didn't realize your goal was for the Pohlad's to maximize their profit.

     

    it isn't, but they can't just ignore profitability, as much as I'd like them to.

     

    My issue with the Pohlad's approach was that, imo, you have to sometimes spend money to make it. It appears that is happening lately.

    h2oface

    h2oface 8,909

  • Old-Timey Member

    • Posted

     

    One thing that has not been mentioned is Paul Molitor and his base running philosophy.

     

    Molitor tells his players to take the base(s) they are given and then try to take more.

     

    From what I understand, Molitor wants his players to run hard for the given base, which puts pressure on defenses to get the ball back in. It also puts the base runner in position to take advantage of a defensive miscue or lackadaisical fielding.

     

    How many times in the past have we seen a player all of a sudden realize he potentially has an extra base, but because he didn't run hard for that first base, he lost his chance?

     

    It's all well and good to talk about clutch hitting, but if players are not doing the things that will put them in scoring position, there is no clutch hitting.

    It stlill happens every day, every game, and since there is a double header today, it will happen even more. To ever let up and lope at all to first base is just not smart. The double could have been a triple. The swinging strikeout not caught could force a throw to first.  But the "pros" do it all the time. All of them on this team do it, unless they think they really might have a chance to beat it out. It is really shameful. What else do they have to do at the time, anyway? The get to play ball and get paid way too much to do it. RUN!!

    SF Twins Fan

    SF Twins Fan 1,735

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

     

    And what if Tulos's injuries are behind him? And what if he does sustain? And what if Polanco is not the future shortstop but Gordon is?.... in 4 to 5 years, just in time to replace Tulo? Polanco and Santana both have fielding ability questions. No prospect is a sure thing. Either way, you don't need both or all three or 4. Remember the amazing haul for Johan Santana? Will Santana and Escobar become another Rivas/Valencia/Florimon/Parmalee that you yo-yo back in forth from AAA to the show, can rake in the minors but fail everytime in the show?..... and then finally give up on them and get nothing in return? Or do you go with arguably the best all around shortstop in the show in the middle of his prime years as a team leader in the infield leader position for the rest of the new youth coming up?

    Polanco could be great. Gordon could become great. Or not. Tulo is. The main point is that you can make a mega-deal to vastly improve the team right now without ruining plans for the future. You can't make 10 of them, but you can make at least one.

    That's a whole lot of IFs there at the beginning of your post.  10 years of Tulo in the majors and not once playing a full season is pretty good evidence he isn't able to stay healthy.  He's definitely a very good defensive SS, but his offensive numbers are helped by the fact he plays in Colorado for half the season.  If you look at the last three year from 2012 to 2014:
    Home: BA .354, HR 31,  Runs 107, RBI 92
    Away: BA .276, HR 23, Runs 69, RBI 69
    Also, I don't think I'd call someone who will be 31 in the beginning of October "in the middle of their prime."  Prime age is 26 to 30 and once you get to 30 you're on the back end of your prime.

    Vanimal46

    Vanimal46 40,516

  • Old-Timey Member

    • Posted

    Stated as fact and not opinion, but I think it is opinion, and no one knows what it would take yet, but it is highly rumored that Tulo will be traded. I contend, and now repeat, it is a start to the conversation..... one doesn't even know what Colorado would want yet. There are plenty of redundant pieces in the minors that are very good prospects, but many of the same eventual pieces. The trick is to trade some while their up side is shouting and the downside hasn't gotten exposed to much to make them lose value.... like the talk is about Alex Meyer's current value dropping to very low.

    Tulo very well could be traded this season, especially if they're out of the race for the playoffs early. They have built their entire roster around Tulo and Carlos Gonzalez. My opinion, and what do I know, is they will demand at least one of the following: Buxton, Sano, Berrios + other prospects to rebuild. I just don't think it's realistic because there is no evidence that the Twins have ever made that type of trade before.

     

    The Rockies as usual desperately need pitching. And it seems the natural fit would be a team like the Mets who could include Syndergaard as the key piece in a trade.

    Eris

    Eris 1,629

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

     

    I think the mega-deal should be attempted at Shortstop, and for Tulo, who is going to be traded, just a mattter of who to. ...

     

    I do not understand the fascination with Troy Tulowitzki.  He is at best, having an average year at shortstop.  From Fangraphs.  DRS =-2 (17th), UZR/150 = -8.7 (19th) and WAR =0.6 (14th).  For comparison, Danny Santana DRS = -9 (29th), UZR/150 = -13.5 (22nd) and WAR=-0.8 (22nd).  

     

    Yes, he represents an improvement over the Twins current options, but is not worth giving away part of the farm, especially considering his salary.  I would much rather the Twins bring up Polanco than make a trade for an average shortstop.

    Otto von Ballpark

    Otto von Ballpark 20,382

  • Old-Timey Member

    • Posted

    I do not understand the fascination with Troy Tulowitzki. He is at best, having an average year at shortstop. From Fangraphs. DRS =-2 (17th), UZR/150 = -8.7 (19th) and WAR =0.6 (14th). For comparison, Danny Santana DRS = -9 (29th), UZR/150 = -13.5 (22nd) and WAR=-0.8 (22nd).

     

    Yes, he represents an improvement over the Twins current options, but is not worth giving away part of the farm, especially considering his salary. I would much rather the Twins bring up Polanco than make a trade for an average shortstop.

    This is a misuse of defensive metrics. Tulo has been solidly above average by both metrics in the past, no reason to throw that out for a 2 month sample.

     

    Still wouldn't endorse a trade, though.

    jimmer

    jimmer 9,961

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    Tulo was the best shortstop by a mile coming into this season and he's having a slow start.  Unless he's fallen off a cliff, he'd be a vast improvement on our team and most teams. In fact, even if he only averaged 120 games before having his annual injury, 120 games of Tulo and 42 games of others still makes that combo shorstop situation in the game.

    Kleppy12

    Kleppy12 0

  • Provisional Member

    • Posted (edited)

    If the Twins make a big move around the deadline the only major piece they should consider moving in Mauer.  I do not say this as a Mauer hater but over the last two years he's batting around .280 which is decent but not worth the money we have invested in him and is in a position where if you bat in the 200's you better hit 30-40 HR's a year.  If the Terry Ryan could manage to trade Mauer with some team eating half his contract this would free a place for Vargas/Sano/Walker to come up and play DH/1B because at this point I don't feel like you would be losing much and would free up money for other players who will need the money sooner rather than later.  Just my two cents I know it won't happen but emotions aside if they can't get a good return on Mauer(player or money -wise) then keep him but if you can dump some of the contract or get a good player back I think that's where you make a move. 

    Edited by Kleppy12
    JB_Iowa

    JB_Iowa 2,540

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

     

    If the Twins make a big move around the deadline the only major piece they should consider moving in Mauer.  I do not say this as a Mauer hater but over the last two years he's batting around .280 which is decent but not worth the money we have invested in him and is in a position where if you bat in the 200's you better hit 30-40 HR's a year.  If the Terry Ryan could manage to trade Mauer with some team eating half his contract this would free a place for Vargas/Sano/Walker to come up and play DH/1B because at this point I don't feel like you would be losing much and would free up money for other players who will need the money sooner rather than later.  Just my two cents I know it won't happen but emotions aside if they can't get a good return on Mauer(player or money -wise) then keep him but if you can dump some of the contract or get a good player back I think that's where you make a move. 

     

    No. Trade. Clause.

     

    I can't see Joe agreeing to a trade when if the Twins keep winning.  Not sure he would even if they go in the dumpster.



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