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    On Carlos Correa and the Differing Opinions of Doctors


    Lucas Seehafer

    The Minnesota Twins on Wednesday introduced their new face of the franchise. Shortstop Carlos Correa, who had previously signed near-record deals with the San Francisco Giants and New York Mets before each fell through due to “concerns” over his right ankle, agreed to a six-year, $200 million deal, the richest in franchise history. If Correa is able to stay healthy and perform at a high level, the deal could reach as high as 10 years, $270 million, only $15 million less than they originally offered him.

    But now the question on everyone’s mind is this: Can Correa stay healthy?

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    Both the Giants and Mets reportedly did not like what they saw on MRI and physical examination regarding his surgically-repaired ankle that he fractured when he was 19 years old and in the minor leagues. What exactly was seen hasn’t been reported, but generally speaking, there are only a couple of pathologies—such as arthritis—that could result in the teams’ physicians taking the stance they did. I do not have inside information on Correa’s condition and this is only educated speculation on my part. (For what it’s worth, the Twins’ doctors were also aware of the status of Correa’s ankle and felt confident enough in its structure to hand out a multi-hundred million dollar deal.)

    The stench of the Giants’ and Mets’ findings resulted in Correa losing $150 million from what was originally promised to him, a fact that must sting deep within his core. Correa’s agent, Scott Boras, implied that the interpretation of the MRI his client underwent was the primary instigator behind his struggles to land with a team.

    “[T]his scenario is about a large separation in the orthopedic community about functional fitness and clinical exam versus looking at an MRI,” Boras said during Correa’s introductory press conference. “It is a dramatic chasm between how some doctors feel and how other doctors feel about the longevity of a player’s performance.”

    Boras is right on the money. Many doctors—particularly orthopedic doctors—subscribe to what is known as the biomedical model. To boil it down simply, the biomedical model believes that health is defined by the absence of pathology. To apply it to Correa, his ankle cannot be healthy because something was found on MRI; in other words, the ankle is something to be concerned about moving forward. 

    In many ways, the biomedical model of health is logical, which is why it was so heavily adopted by doctors, particularly in the United States, upon its introduction. However, logic and the body don’t always mesh well. 

    Let’s take MRIs for example. MRIs—which stand for magnetic resonance imaging—are wonderful for diagnosing soft tissue injuries, both those that are acute or chronic in nature. If an athlete tears their ACL or strains their hamstring, the extent and exact location of the damage is often determined by MRI.

    However, some in the field of orthopedics use what is found on MRI as a way to predict what will happen in the future. The thinking goes something like this: “Well, that individual has a tear in their meniscus. It may not bother them now, but it will in the future, so we better take care of it now.”

    Again, this is a perspective based in logic. Damaged tissue or bone is “not normal” (i.e. pathological), the thought goes, and therefore must be remedied (i.e. turn the pathology back to health). However, over the decades, MRI’s ability to accurately predict future injury has been found to be dubious, at best. The meniscus tear or arthritis in the back don’t always come back to haunt the individual; sometimes they simply lay dormant, never causing disruption.

    This isn’t logical and is a big reason why many in orthopedics—including myself, full disclosure—believe more in relying on past performance and abilities. “Functional fitness,” as Boras referred to it, is more concerned about “what have you done and what can you do” than “what could happen?”

    Carlos Correa has never once gone on the injured list nor has he ever missed time due to ankle pain over the last decade. He has accumulated 32.3 fWAR, won a Platinum Glove, and is on pace to finish his career as a Hall of Famer. Sure, he may have some arthritis and/or some metal in his ankle, but it’s never impacted his ability to perform. Why all of a sudden should we think it will now or anytime in the future?

    “One thing I learned throughout the whole process is that doctors have a difference of opinions,” Correa said during his press conference. “I had a lot of doctors tell me I was fine and I had some who said I wasn’t so fine.”

    That is really all that Correa’s rollercoaster offseason boils down to. We like to think that medicine is a completely objective field. Players undergo tests, the results are read, and a decision is made. However, much of orthopedics—and especially physical exams—contain a fair amount of subjectivity.

    Doctors often have differing opinions; that’s why second opinions exist (and aren’t called second “facts”). The Giants and Mets clearly had a larger issue with Correa’s ankle than the Twins, but that doesn’t inherently mean that the Twins are wrong (or, to be fair, does it mean they are inherently right).

    An additional factor in play during Correa’s free agency discussions, it should be noted, was the sheer volume of his potential contracts and the ability for a team to insure such a deal. Suffice it to say, either the Giants or the Mets could have gotten their deals with Correa insured with relatively little issue. (The Twins did, after all.) However, what both teams seemingly did was use Correa’s MRI findings to justify backing out of their agreement and offer something more paltry in return.

    The Mets took it even a step further. Their final offer to Correa was a six-year deal for $157.5 million, exactly half of their original, with multiple non-guaranteed years contingent on him passing a yearly physical. Additionally, according to USA Today's Bob Nightengale, they employed the opinion from the exact same orthopedic doctor as the Giants. (Said Boras, "I don’t understand the Mets. I gave them all of the information. We had them talk to four doctors. They knew the issue the Giants had. And yet, they still call the same doctor the Giants used for his opinion. There was no new information. So why negotiate a contract if you were going to rely on the same doctor?") As Aaron Gleeman, John Bonnes, and Dan Hayes discussed astutely in a recent Gleeman and the Geek Patreon podcast, why would Correa agree to such a deal, especially after experiencing firsthand the Mets’ physical exam process?

    At the end of the day, the Mets, and to perhaps a lesser extent the Giants, tried to utilize Correa’s body against him in the name of saving money. What is particularly egregious is that the Mets knew full well that they may see something upon exam that they did not like. They agreed to sign him for 12 years and $315 million anyway, only to swiftly pull out the rug from underneath him.

    It’s perfectly acceptable for doctors to approach a condition with different viewpoints and opinions. However, the case of Carlos Correa exposed the potential impact differences of opinions—and perhaps outdated medical models—can have on an individual, especially when “just doing business” is involved.

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    15 hours ago, Nine of twelve said:

    I'm not clear about this: exactly who engaged the services of the MD or MD's who provided the opinion used by the Giants and the Mets? Was it the teams themselves or was it the insurance company or companies who would be providing coverage for the contracts?

     

    14 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

    Teams. The insurance policies are a completely different thing, in my understanding. 

    It's my understanding that contracts such as this are almost always insured. That means the insurance company would be assuming the financial risk in the event of a health-related problem affecting the player's performance. As such, it would seem to me that the underwriter would want to assess the risk before such a policy is put into effect. That's why I was wondering if insurance companies hire doctors to give independent opinions in such cases. Maybe Heezy is aware of whether this is done?

    19 minutes ago, Nine of twelve said:

    It's my understanding that contracts such as this are almost always insured. That means the insurance company would be assuming the financial risk in the event of a health-related problem affecting the player's performance. As such, it would seem to me that the underwriter would want to assess the risk before such a policy is put into effect. That's why I was wondering if insurance companies hire doctors to give independent opinions in such cases. Maybe Heezy is aware of whether this is done?

    Oh, insurance is absolutely involved but my understanding is that their process with doctors and evaluation is separate from what we're talking about with the Giants' and Mets' doctor.

    By the way, the Twins were able to insure Correa's contract. I believe Boras made a smart-ass remark about it at the press conference, implying the Twins could magically get him insured but the Giants and Mets could not.

    23 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

    By the way, the Twins were able to insure Correa's contract. I believe Boras made a smart-ass remark about it at the press conference, implying the Twins could magically get him insured but the Giants and Mets could not.

    This is the part with all of this that confuses me. Maybe. I mean ... the guaranteed dollar amounts and years are very different than the Twins contract. Could it be that insurance said, 'Okay, this is doable' where the others were not, again because of the guaranteed length and amounts? Front loading it as they did, and basically have 4 years of being opt outs at lower rates ... maybe the insurance said that was workable where the other structures were not?

    Totally guessing. If, indeed, insurance was part of the problem. If it truly wasn't, then, I'm back to they were trying to put the screws to Correa.

    The Twins accepted different opinions because they weren't asking the same questions.

    The Giants and Mets were essentially working from the same starting point, trying to get a contract with an excellent youngish SS free agent who had a lot of leverage when playing teams against each other. At the point the Giants backed out it easily could have been a team thing or a real health thing. But when the Mets backed out too Correa's negotiating position was significantly weakened. Once his health was in doubt the Twins were free to not be considering 10-12 years of health because they had the leverage to crank down on the guaranteed years. 

    When you need to paying out for ten or twelve years you're far more concerned about what difficulty a 38 year old might have with arthritis than when you're looking at six years and how the 34 year old might be feeling. Our front office was able to take those earlier negotiations to change their discussion to reduce risk to align with what the docs were saying. 

     

    On 1/16/2023 at 7:58 AM, Karbo said:

    The dr. isn't always right. There outlooks are nothing more than an educated guess going by what the majority of people have had. IMHO using the patients history should be factored in more than it is.

    And cross-your-fingers hope for the best case scenario is almost always worse than the doctor's rec.

    That's what we're all doing.  We should at least admit it.




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