Offseason Status Update: Counting Down to the Winter Meetings

We knew coming into this offseason that Twins fans were in for a long, slow winter, with the front office's impetus to trim down payroll serving as the main storyline rather than any potential for big-splash additions. It's been expectedly quiet through the first month. 

That said, things are happening. With the deadlines to protect Rule 5-eligible prospects and tender contracts to arbitration-eligible players arriving over the past few weeks, the Twins were compelled to make several key decisions. We'll catch you up on those while also setting the stage for the upcoming Winter Meetings in Dallas, where trade conversations figure to heat up.

Twins Tender Contracts to All Arbitration-Eligible Players
When the arbitration deadline arrived on November 22nd, the Twins front office decided to tender contracts to all 11 eligible players, with the only exception being Alex Kirilloff who had already made the decision for them by retiring earlier in the month. 

The class of retained players, who will all receive guaranteed contracts (many of which still need to be specifically agreed upon), included a few mild surprises—namely, Justin Topa and Michael Tonkin. Neither will be expensive; Topa agreed at $1.225 million ($1 million in 2025 with a $2 million option and $225K buyout in 2026), Tonkin at $1 million for one year. But neither was a significant contributor for this season's team. I would basically view them as the equivalents to low-wattage free-agent signings from last year, like Jay Jackson and Josh Staumont, and in that vein, they are fine. Often, in cases like these, the agreement on a deal ahead of the tender deadline tells us the team was unwilling to tender them without getting cost certainty.

With six of seven bullpen spots all but spoken for between Tonkin, Topa, Cole Sands, Jorge Alcalá, Brock Stewart, Griffin Jax, and Jhoan Durán, it's very unlikely the Twins will be active on the bullpen front this offseason. Which is fine, because they have the makings of an elite unit. 

Raya, Adams Added to 40-Man Roster
Ahead of the deadline to add prospects to the 40-man roster in order to protect them from being exposed to the upcoming Rule 5 draft, Minnesota selected two players: Marco Raya and Travis Adams. Raya was a no-brainer. Adams was a bit more surprising, but hardly a shock. 

The former is a highly-rated 22-year-old pitching prospect whose combination of proven performance, upside and proximity to MLB would have made him irresistible to Rule 5 talent hunters. The latter is a 24-year-old right-hander who could hardly be considered a top prospect, but whose ability to fill an immediate functional depth role is viewed as valuable. 

Since his addition to the 40-man roster nudges Adams into the Twins' future plans, he's worth learning more about. I wrote of the former sixth-rounder's appealing traits, including his durability: Adams leads all Twins minor-leaguers in innings pitched over the past three seasons.

With Raya and Adams aboard, the Twins' 40-man roster currently sits at 37. At the moment, it's slightly lopsided, with 21 pitchers and only 16 position players—and that's with two spots being occupied by Michael Helman and DaShawn Keirsey Jr. Personally, I'd be surprised if both were still rostered at the start of spring training. One thing coming into focus is the fact that a bigger restructuring of the position-player group than we expected is probably looming.

Speas Signed to Minor-League Deal
The only signings we've seen from the Twins front office over the first month of the offseason were of the minor-league variety, and many were just bringing back 40-man roster casualties like Yunior Severino, Scott Blewett and Daniel Duarte. However, one noteworthy outside pickup was righty reliever Alex Speas, who signed a minor-league contract with an invite to spring training.

The story on Speas: big fastball, reaching triple digits, and big control problems. Last year he spent time with four different organizations, posting a 12.13 ERA with a 45-to-43 K/BB ratio in 29 ⅔ innings at Triple-A while also making one appearance in the majors. (None of those numbers is a typo. Unfortunately.) He's a project, and one that many different teams have been keen to take a shot at, with little success so far. Turning 27 in March, the former second-round draft pick will be worth keeping an eye on as an intriguing bullpen longshot.

Trade Talks to Heat Up at Winter Meetings?
From my view, the Twins have a pretty credible, contending-caliber roster in place. Sure, you'd like to add a couple more bats, but as I look over the roster layout below, it strikes me as a club that could plausibly win the division. The problem, as you can see over on the right side, is that they are about $4 million over their budget by my (inexact) calculations. I've seen other estimates that put them close to $10 million above the $130 million threshold that ownership appears to have set. 

That means the Twins are going to need to find a way to unload some salary to meet the payroll mandate they have in place, and even more if they want to add meaningfully from outside. There's been plenty of buzz around Christian Vázquez and Chris Paddack as clear candidates to be moved. Other, weightier names like Carlos Correa, Pablo López, and Jhoan Durán have also been thrown around as possibilities on the more disruptive end. It really feels like everything is on the table here in a fascinating first offseason for Jeremy Zoll in the GM chair, officially second in command to the organization's head honcho Derek Falvey. 

What are you expecting to see?