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    Minnesota Twins Roster Projection 2015 Version 2.0


    Seth Stohs

    When the calendar turned to 2015, I posted my first Minnesota Twins Roster Projection for 2015. It’s been two months since then, so it’s time today for Roster Projection, version 2.0. Spring training is less than two weeks old, but the Twins played their first exhibition game last night against the Gophers. Tonight, their Grapefruit League schedule begins with a game against the Red Sox. There are still a few jobs available and there will be plenty of competition. Twins Daily will again be in Ft. Myers starting Monday and through the rest of spring training.

    Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson, USA Today

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    When a player becomes a “given” for the roster (in my opinion), I will highlight the player’s name in red. Trades and signings can happen at any time between now and opening day, but that just means that even “givens” can change. We will also be able to learn, over time, what it is that Paul Molitor will look for from his roster. Feel free to discuss below.

    Catchers (2): Kurt Suzuki, Josmil Pinto

    Kurt Suzuki is the clear-cut starter and deservedly so after last year. Josmil Pinto goes into camp as the favorite to be the team’s backup catcher, but it will be a competition. Pinto certainly has the ability to hit and hit for power. The defense remains the question mark. Chris Herrmann is also on the 40-man roster. He has the ability to play the corner outfield positions, and the corner infield positions, in a pinch. He’s a very athletic catcher with a strong arm. Offensively, he has been unable to hit much in his stints with the Twins. Eric Fryer remains in the organization, and Dan Rohlfing was again a non-roster invite to big league camp.

    Infielders (7): Kennys Vargas, Joe Mauer, Brian Dozier, Trevor Plouffe, Danny Santana, Eduardo Escobar, Eduardo Nunez

    We will likely hear that there may be competition for a utility infield spot, but I did change Eduardo Nunez to a given. Things can happen, of course. There could be injuries, or a shortstop could be pushed back to centerfield. Those things could alter the opening day roster. Mauer, Dozier and Plouffe will man the bases. There will be some competition for the shortstop position, but Santana and Escobar will both be on the roster to start the season. Nunez is the one question mark, but he does have the ability to play at least five positions on the field. He may not be great at any of them, but his versatility is valuable.

    His competition for the job comes in the form of non-roster invites. Fair or not, guys like Eric Farris, James Beresford and Doug Bernier would have to play significantly better than Nunez to take the job. That’s not to say that it couldn’t happen, but it is a long shot at this point of the spring.

    Obviously guys like Jorge Polanco and Miguel Sano could factor into the infield situation by the end of the year.

    Outfielders (4): Oswaldo Arcia, Torii Hunter, Jordan Schafer, Aaron Hicks

    Torii Hunter will be the right fielder. Oswaldo Arcia will play left field. Center field will likely remain a question mark through much of spring training. I still believe that the number one option is likely for Aaron Hicks to take charge of the position and show the Twins brass that he is ready this time. Fans, of course and understandably, won’t care what kind of numbers he puts up this spring or how ready he looks, they won’t believe it until he’s had a solid month in the big leagues. Jordan Schafer will be on the roster, but will he be the starting centerfielder or the fourth outfielder? If Hicks starts the season in Rochester, I think Shane Robinson has a good chance to be the fourth outfield or a platoon partner in center field with Schafer.

    If Byron Buxton has two doubles every time he plays this spring, he enters into the equation already, though it’s much more likely he will arrive late in the season or even in 2016. Eddie Rosario will also be given an opportunity to compete for the center field job, and he might be the first guy called up during the season if there were an injury.

    Starting Pitchers (5): Phil Hughes, Ervin Santana, Ricky Nolasco, Kyle Gibson, Tommy Milone

    As we know, Phil Hughes, Ervin Santana, Ricky Nolasco and Kyle Gibson have the first four rotation spots. There are four or five candidates for the fifth starter position. Last month, I looked at five5th starter candidates (Trevor May, Mike Pelfrey, Alex Meyer, Tommy Milone and Tim Stauffer). My personal opinion right now is that Tommy Milone has a slight edge over Trevor May in that competition while Meyer and Pelfrey will also be given long looks. Stauffer will likely go to the bullpen. However, it will be a real competition and may not be decided until April.

    Bullpen (7): Glen Perkins, Casey Fien, Brian Duensing, Tim Stauffer, Caleb Thielbar, Mike Pelfrey, JR Graham.

    The first five on the above list are givens. After that, there are a lot of arms who will compete for just two more jobs. Paul Molitor indicated earlier this week that he intends to start the season with 12 pitchers.

    Of course, the “losers” of the fifthstarter battle play a large role in this decision. Mike Pelfrey, depending upon his velocity, could be a good option for the bullpen. Alex Meyer and Trevor May have the stuff to be very good out of the bullpen at some point, but I would think the Twins would want them to keep starting at this point. JR Graham was the Rule 5 pick, so he will need to be kept on the active roster or offered back to the Braves.

    Michael Tonkin is at the point in his career where the Twins need to find out what they have. He throws hard, but will he ever take the next step and be a reliable late-inning option? Pressly was the Rule 5 guy two years ago. The Twins were able to keep him all year and then use his first option last year. Lester Oliveros throws hard and recorded a lot of strikeouts in his first year back after Tommy John surgery. AJ Achter has been one of the most reliable bullpen arms in the Twins farm system the last three years. Mark Hamburger is not only one of the most intriguing stories of the spring, but he throws very hard and has a good mix of pitches thanks to all the time he has spent as a starter.

    What are your thoughts? What does your roster look like one month from Opening Day?

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    I like Polanco over Nunez for utility IF, and potential replacement for Dozier at 2B.

    Is Polanco a good option to be the 25th man, second utility infielder starting less than once a week? Is it realistic to think he's ready to (or should) step in as a replacement for a productive MLBer?

     

    As a 21 year old who has had 37 games at AA, I'm going to emphatically say no on both. Polanco (and the Twins) would be much better served by having him develop in the minor leagues playing every day.

    There's no way they are going to keep a fairly well regarded prospect on the MLB team to be part of a platoon and not get the development of facing both sides. That's not unique to the Twins.

     

    Especially when the side he hits well from would be against lefties.  Maybe we would call him up for that role during a pennant run

    Ignore development just for a second.   Look at their splits last year and tell me that for the current team a platoon isn't their best option by far.   Hicks splits make him an ideal candidate for leadoff hitter against lefties.   Schaefer is adequate against right handers.   If not Hicks/Schaefer then who?

    Now lets talk development.   Against AAA pitchers what numbers would Hicks have to hit and for how long from the left side before you would be convinced he can hit major league pitchers?      I would actually like your opinion.   Two months above .300?    Three months above .290?    If he never does you have lost the value he could have given this year when we need it.   What do you do if Buxton and or Rosario out play him in that period?    I am by no means positive he will never hit as a lefty.    I am just skeptical and see value in him as a platoon player even if it is only against lefties and as late inning defense.     Send him down now and I predict his future will be as a platoon/4th outfielder anyway.   I have been wrong before.    Its just that he has shown so little from the left side. 

    Hicks splits make him an ideal candidate for leadoff hitter against lefties.

    I was referring to the idea of platooning Rosario in your earlier post. Hicks is certainly much closer to the point of being platoonable than Rosario.

     

    On Hicks though, I do prefer him in AAA to start the year. If he comes north, his days off should obviously come against righties but it's still hard to see him in a full out platoon this year.

     

    I'll add that I don't agree we need that value this year. If we're in the pennant race after the ASB, then there's a much stronger argument to do whatever it takes -- including platoons with developing players.

    Edited by jay

    I think that the Twins are positioned to make a trade (or trades) late in ST. Injuries happen to all teams and with the overstocking of pitchers on the Twins, we could see some interesting happenings. Pelf with one year on his contract, Milone with his prior success, Nunez with his supposed flexibility and others could all be moved.

    I'm not crazy about May and Meyer starting the season at Triple A. How many years have we heard that those 2 are the future studs for the Twins. I know that you can't hand them jobs if they pitch poorly in ST.

    It appears that both might be squeezed out by the Santana signing. Seth, I'm wondering what happens if Nolasco pitches poorly, and is ineffective in March. Is he guaranteed a job (with his contract), or would the Twins have to eat some of his salary to facilitate a trade? I know these things seem to have a way of sorting everything out, but there does appear to be a log jam right now.

    I'm also not a fan of Nunez, but the 25th man does have to be someone who has to realize he is not going to start very often. Do the Twins need 2 utility infielders? I'd rather have an extra OF to help with some PH punch in late innings.

    I agree with the "don't platoon Hicks" argument.  I consider him a prospect, but he needs to go to the minors to develop his hit tool. 

     

    I think a month to six weeks of solid performance at Rochester would be sufficient, if he is the best option to take over center field.  My projection has been for Schafer and Robinson to share center for the early days until one of the prospects (Hicks, Rosario, or the very unlikely scenario of Buxton) show they are ready by dominating in AAA or AA. 

     

    Sure, there is a chance that the Twins make a deal or two before spring training is over.  They have excess starters, an extra infielder and a chasm in center field.  I have been beating the drum for the Twins to obtain Peter Bourjos from the Cards all winter.

     

    Earlier comments about bringing Polanco north, maybe Buxton etc. just don't serve to develop the players.  I believe that Buxton and Sano are destined to be All-Stars, but they aren't ready.  They (and Polanco) need lots of playing time at the right level.  Right now that is AA.

    I'm also not a fan of Nunez, but the 25th man does have to be someone who has to realize he is not going to start very often. Do the Twins need 2 utility infielders? I'd rather have an extra OF to help with some PH punch in late innings.

    I don't think it is a coincidence that Nuñez was listed as an outfielder on the Twins' roster.  He is my pick to get a lot of starts against left handers in place of Arcia (not a platoon, but "rest" days).

    This is the last year for Hicks.  He succeeds or fails as a primary CF.  If he is sent to AAA it is a waste of everybody's time.  Hicks must succeed as a Twins--so he can be traded or serve as the fallback option to a promotion of Buxton next season.  There are many  options for a #4 OF, and frankly said position is a low priority for the Twins. 

     

    The small market mentality of plugging-in spare parts as starters must send.  Develop long-term solutions for every position.  Players "get their chance":  succeed and the job is theirs; fail and likely watch someone else seize the opportunity.  The endless up/down, chance, 2nd chance, etc. must give way to Next!  Second chances are for instances when no one has succeeded.

    Develop long-term solutions for every position. Players "get their chance": succeed and the job is theirs;

    You do that by appropriately challenging young players. Hicks hasn't even done enough to show he deserves the second [wait -- THIRD] chance that you're railing against players getting.

    Is Polanco a good option to be the 25th man, second utility infielder starting less than once a week? Is it realistic to think he's ready to (or should) step in as a replacement for a productive MLBer?

     

    As a 21 year old who has had 37 games at AA, I'm going to emphatically say no on both. Polanco (and the Twins) would be much better served by having him develop in the minor leagues playing every day.

    I have to agree with you there.  Polanco will be better served playing every day.

    For me I look at who your top 9 players were last year and put them all in the starting lineup. Pretty simple IMHO. Let them settle in for the first 4 weeks and go from there.

     

    Santana CF

    Escobar SS

    Dozier 2B

    Mauer 1B

    Plouffe 3B

    Suzuki C

    Arcia LF

    Hunter RF

    Vargas DH

     

    Bench -

    Schafer

    Pinto

    Nunez

    Herman

    I am not sure..  If Hicks does not impress in the spring I think I would go with Santana at CF...I think Escobar deserves a chance again.  

     

    Is there any chance Eddie Rosario makes the team?

     

     If Pinto can not play defense I would just rather have Hermann or Fryer on the team.  We already have enough guys (Vargas/Hunter/Arcia/Nunez) who are not very good defenders.  

     

     




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