Minnesota Twins Arbitration Dilemma: Three Fringe Relievers

MLB Trade Rumors projects Brock Stewart, Michael Tonkin, and Justin Topa to get $800,000, $1.5 million, and $1.3 million, respectively, via arbitration this winter. Stewart and Topa were limited in 2024 due to injuries, but each has a track record of being reliable relievers when they've been healthy. On the other hand, Tonkin provided a full season of work with the New York Mets and New York Yankees before finishing with the Twins. Each of the relievers took a different route to the Twins, as Topa was part of the return from the Jorge Polanco trade; Stewart signed as a free agent in the middle of the 2022 season; and Tonkin was poached off waivers from the Yankees. At relatively cheap costs, should the Twins tender any or all of these relievers? Let's look into both sides of the arguments.

Why They Should Be Tendered
At just $800,000, you can't find a cheaper player than what Stewart is projected to receive. While he wasn't productive in 15 ⅔ big-league innings in 2024, we have a larger (and healthier) body of work from 2023 that suggests he can still be a very good right-handed reliever. In 43 ⅓ innings, Stewart has pitched to a 2.28 ERA supported by a 2.78 FIP, with a 22.7 K-BB% and 86.3% strand rate, which is good for fifth in baseball among pitchers who have thrown 40 or more innings.

There's nothing we can garner from Topa’s 2024 season, but if you wanted to try: he performed well in 2 ⅓ innings over three appearances at the end of the season. Topa was one of two major-league pieces acquired in the Jorge Polanco trade, and with the Mariners in 2023, he posted a 2.61 ERA, 3.15 FIP and 15.4 K-BB%. His low-90s sinker, which is his primary offering, was a plus pitch for him with a run value of 10 and sets up his sweeper. Entering the offseason fully healthy from a non-arm injury, I wouldn’t be surprised if he can bounce back to his 2023 self.

Old friend Tonkin re-joined the Twins at the end of August, and quickly became one of their most reliable arms. While his 2024 stats aren’t anything to write home about, two straight seasons of roughly 80 quality innings are nothing to be scoffed at, either. His two primary offerings, a mid-90s four-seam fastball and sharp slider, induced a combined .215 and .321 opponent batting average and slugging percentage, respectively, and he generated a 78th-percentile chase rate between all his pitches.

From a roster construction standpoint, the Twins need relievers, and each of these present cheap options to bridge the gap between the starters and the back end of the bullpen. They are each fly-ball pitchers which is something to consider, at least in the short term, given the number of question marks surrounding the defensive viability at each of the infield positions.

Why They Shouldn’t Be Tendered
Before getting into each reliever individually, be reminded that relievers are a very volatile group and it’s always hard to predict when, or how fast, the fall in production comes. Moreover, each of these relievers are entering their age-33 or older season, making the likelihood of regression even higher. And lastly, each of these relievers are right-handed, with traditional splits. Those alone are arguments as to why none of these fringe relievers should be tendered, before we even address their warts.

Alright, with that out of the way…let’s look at each of these pitchers individually.

Stewart is returning from arthroscopic shoulder surgery, meaning there is a very real chance that we’ve seen the last of a serviceable Stewart. In a small sample of work, he also allowed a lot of hard contact in the air with a .407 opponent slugging percentage.

I’m less concerned about Topa’s injury, given that it’s to his lower body, but it can’t totally be ignored—especially considering he basically just missed all of 2024. For what it’s worth, Edwin Díaz returned from a patellar tendon injury this year and experienced a slight dip in performance from 2022. While these players are in completely different echelons, Topa can’t afford much of a decline in performance given his age and arbitration price point.

Tonkin is the most expensive arm of this group and, similar to Stewart, he allowed a lot of hard contact in the air to the pull side. While most of his surface-level and peripheral stats suggest the last two seasons weren’t a fluke, ZiPS projection models don’t see him as a serviceable reliever in 2025 and beyond.

What I Would Do
I don’t think the Twins should keep all three relievers, given that they need to add another left-handed reliever to go alongside Kody Funderburk. And I don’t think any of these relievers are clear choices above the rest, so I am going to go with the two cheapest options, who also provide the most upside. Brock Stewart, whose shoulder should be mostly (if not fully) recovered by the time Spring Training rolls around, was very good for the 2023 Twins. Tendering him for less than a million dollars is a pretty low-risk, high reward move.

The same line of reasoning can be used for Topa, but I also want to see some (hopefully) positive return from the Polanco trade and I’d think the Derek Falvey would feel the same way. That leaves Tonkin as the odd man out as I’d repurpose his $1.5 million for a lefty reliever.

What do you think? Who, if anybody, from this group would you tender a contract to?