Marlins Trevor Rogers Remains Twins Best Hope in Waning Hours of Trade Deadline

Only about six hours remain until the trade deadline, and the Twins are still without external reinforcements. Fewer players than usual remain on the open market in the final hours of this year’s deadline, as teams have steadily made moves since last Thursday. 

One player whose market is heating up is Marlins left-handed starter, Trevor Rogers. The 26-year-old lefty has had a mediocre season with Miami, posting a 4.53 ERA and 1.52 WHIP across 105 ⅓ innings in 21 starts. 

Rogers's price on the market will be considerable, as he’s arbitration-eligible and can remain under team control through the 2026 season. However, with slim pickings left for the Twins to trade for in their desperate need to add rotation depth, Rogers is another Marlins starter whom this team could try to revamp into an All-Star--er, an All-Star again. 

As fellow Twins Daily writer Lucas Seehafer pointed out on Twitter, the Twins' player development and coaching staff has found a way to get the most out of a former Marlins starter very recently, in Pablo López. Like López, Rogers possesses a changeup and sinker in his arsenal, and has an intriguing arm slot. 

López has taken a step back in terms of how good his changeup has been this season, compared to last year. But the numbers on that offering in 2023 were a testament to the value of the Twins' ability to augment an already successful hurler. Maybe they would look to add a sweeper for Rogers, as they did with López. 

This season, hitters have a .306 batting average off Rogers's changeup, the highest out of any of his four pitches, but his opponents' wOBA of .329 off the changeup is the lowest of the four. This is just a place for the Twins to start helping Rogers get on a better path, like they did with López, but the relevance of any of this depends on their willingness to go in on him at a high price point. 

In addition to the work that could be done with Rogers's changeup, his fastball velocity has seen a decline since his 2021 All-Star season.  Back then, Rogers averaged 94.5 MPH on his heater, compared to the 92.5 MPH he has on it now. The Twins have been able to help pitchers improve their velocity, whether they be draft prospects like Louie Varland going through the system or a veteran like López, who went from averaging 93.4 MPH on his fastball with Miami in 2022 to 95 MPH in his tenure with the Twins.

It's becoming a tradition: any time the Marlins make the playoffs, they disassemble the team at the trade deadline the very next season. This is yet another year of that, as the Marlins squeezed into the second N.L. Wild Card spot last season and were swept out of the playoffs by the Phillies. Now, it’s only a matter of who the Marlins would want in return for a left-handed starter with two and a half years of control left. 

Luke Keaschall is a likely name to come up in any conversations, but the Twins were able to acquire López and some prospects for Luis Arráez a year and a half ago. It’s possible they could get a second Marlins starter to bring back into All-Star form, without having to empty their farm system.