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    Make It Official! Twins 8, Athletics 7: Your Money's Worth and More


    Matthew Trueblood

    With a bit of thunderous slugging, a bit of yeoman's work on the mound, and one dazzling defensive moment, the Twins finished off a doubleheader sweep of the hapless visitors from Oakland as the sun set over The Lake.

    Image courtesy of © Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports

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    Box Score:
    Starting Pitcher:
    Chris Paddack: 2 1/3 IP, 5 H, 5 ER, 1 BB, 0 K (46 Pitches, 31 Strikes, 67.4%)
    Home Runs: Royce Lewis (7), Trevor Larnach (7), José Miranda (7)
    Top 3 WPA: Miranda 0.267, Josh Staumont 0.194, Griffin Jax 0.160
    Win Probability Chart (Via Fangraphs):

    image.png

    At the very bottom of it, under all the complexities and loyalties and emotional superstructures we lay on top, you go to the park to see a major-league game in the hopes of seeing a special ball player do something truly special. Through a huge number of complex interactions between on-field talent and front-office machination; through the vicious emotional wreckage of a protracted playoff losing streak and seasons ruined by injuries to talented players; and through plenty of well-earned grumbling about a family of billionaires refusing to invest the way they should have in a team with a chance to break through, the last half-decade has featured a lot of chances to step through the gates of Target Field and see something truly special. Right now, that's Royce Lewis, and what he's doing might be not only the most special thing the Twins have offered their fans this side of Joe Mauer, but one of the most remarkable things anywhere on any MLB diamond.

    Lewis entered Sunday's doubleheader having played 10 games this season and clubbed five home runs. Then he homered in the first game, on the heels of Carlos Correa's first-inning two-run shot. It's not just that Lewis is doing this, but that he's doing it yet again, coming back over and over from injuries ranging from significant but moderate to career-threatening and slugging like he hadn't missed a single game. There are very few examples of this kind of relentless offensive explosiveness from a player whose career is disrupted as often and as momentously as Lewis's has been; the ones that do exist are folk heroes. Think Bo Jackson. Think Josh Hamilton. Think Mickey Mantle.

    When Lewis stepped in for his turn in the first inning of Game Two, you could feel that slight gather of breath in the sparse but buzzing crowd--that unfair but happy expectation that somehow, in defiance of the law of averages and the mathematical gravity of the game, the guy in the box is going to put on his cape again and be super. It's a nearly forgotten sensation, in this day and age. Fans know better. The stats and their weight sit front and center in front of the game with us. Plus, the run environment has transformed. We're more than a quarter-century past the last expansion of the league, and almost 20 years clear of what I call the Double Expansion Era (but which others call the Steroid Era). If you didn't grow up watching Ken Griffey Jr., Sammy Sosa, Mark McGwire, and Barry Bonds, you can't quite imagine how much people expected of them every day, and how (improbably) they kept meeting those insane expectations. No player since 2010 has had the same kind of anticipation attached to them, because no one has conditioned people to feel that way.

    Lewis is becoming the exception. Your brain knows he can't homer in every game, let alone every time he steps to the plate, but it's increasingly difficult to banish the tickle of hope from your mind, because he keeps beating the odds and blasting the ball.

    That's why fans got even more ecstatic than usual when Lewis launched a long fly ball down the left-field line, and were more than usually crestfallen when it hooked just foul. For a moment, it felt like another proof of Lewis's exceptionalism. Then, it was just a strike, and (how cruel!) fans knew they might have to wait another few innings to see their hero hit a dinger that counted.

    Or, you know, he could do it on the next pitch.

    Just missing once and then doing the thing immediately afterward is freakish stuff. It's the kind of showstopping moment you should only be allowed to do in the first inning or the last. Anything else would be like Skynyrd playing 'Freebird' right in the middle of the set. Lewis set a tone, as he always seems to be doing. This game, though, would be a bit less of a free-spirited frolic than the first game of the twinbill was.

    This time, the A's actually showed up, and Chris Paddack continued what has been a deeply troubling trend of ineffectiveness, albeit not an uninterrupted one. This would be his third start in the last four that were somewhere between disappointing and underwhelming, and the only good one mixed in there came against the Road Rockies, perennially the worst offensive team in baseball. The A's thwacked Paddack for two homers and erased two Twins leads before Rocco Baldelli had to go get his starter, who looked rather upset to be leaving despite not having had much fun at the party. 

    Things would have been worse--much worse--but for some extraordinary defense from Austin Martin in the second inning.

    Some home run robberies are, secretly, pretty easy. They just require you to meander back to the wall and time up a jump, with plenty of time to do both. This was the other kind. Martin had to choose his angle wisely, feel for the wall, and get pretty high to pull the ball back. Martin looked fine in left field in his previous stint with the team, but if he can get more comfortable in center this time around, he might have more staying power with the team.

    Still, Paddack's outing hangs like a bit of a dark cloud over the excitement of this stretch. He's been inconsistent not only in terms of results (that's inevitable, to some extent), but in terms of sheer movements and performance. His fastball velocity has sat 90-93 MPH in three starts this year; 92-94 in three others; 93-95 in five more; and 94-97 in the other three. That's a maddening degree of inconsistency, and it's just one illustration of a rougher-grain unreliability that has plagued the righty this year.

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    Twins Daily's winning "Make It Official!" game recaps are sponsored by Official Fried Chicken, which you can find in center field of Target Field. With a name like "Official," we know we have to be the best in the game every day, and from your first bite, you'll know that's a promise we make good on.


    Fortunately, Louie Varland restored order. Taking over for Paddack, he pitched out of a third-inning jam, then gave the team four scoreless innings before cracking a bit in the seventh. It was an impressive showing from Varland in his second outing of the week, helping patch and fill some innings for the busy staff, although he still hasn't faced a truly MLB-caliber lineup since he was demoted to St. Paul in the first place.

    Lewis wasn't alone in slugging in the nightcap for the Twins. Trevor Larnach launched a huge three-run homer in the bottom of the second, and the team pushed across single runs in the third and sixth that looked like they might stand up. Instead, after Varland wobbled badly in the seventh, the game came down to the final two frames. José Miranda had pinch-hit for Larnach in the sixth, and he came up again in the eighth. He put the right finishing touch on the masterpiece of a game Lewis started painting in the first.

    That just left a relatively easy clean-up for Griffin Jax, and he finished the sweep ably. The Twins are winners of five games in a row, and the vibes are very, very good.

    What’s Next: After an off day Monday, the Twins will welcome the Rays to town for a three-game set, with Pablo López starting the series opener. Longtime AL Central nemesis Aaron Civale will start for Tampa.


    Postgame Interviews:

     

    Bullpen Usage Chart:

      WED THU FRI SAT SUN TOT
    Sands 0 0 25 0 27 52
    Jax 0 19 23 0 12 42
    Thielbar 22 0 0 0 0 22
    Durán 16 0 20 0 9 45
    Staumont 0 0 15 0 15 15
    Alcalá 10 13 0 0 22 45
    Jackson 22 0 0 0 0 22
    Okert 18 0 0 0 0 18

     

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    Marek Houston

    Cedar Rapids Kernels - A+, SS
    The 22-year-old went 2-for-5 on Friday night, his fourth straight multi-hit game. Heading into the week, he was hitting .246/.328/.404 (.732). Four games later, he is hitting .303/.361/.447 (.808).

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    15 hours ago, bean5302 said:

    Martin's home run robbing catch would have been a lot more impressive if he didn't also bounce a ball off his glove costing the team a run and allowing the Athletics to tie it up in the 2nd.

    Exciting to have Royce Lewis out there playing like an MVP.

    Lewis will be in the Majors as long as he is healthy; at worst he will become another Nelson Cruz.

    It's like real estate,it's all about location and Paddock can't find it.There are pitchers throwing all across the league in the low 90s.They did say last night that Varland seemed to be taking a little more time between pitches.That is and has been his problem,rushing pitches.

    17 hours ago, bean5302 said:

    I'll continue to note this every time I see it because people seem to forget or ignore the Mets GM was just suspended for a year for using the Phantom IL. MLB put front offices on notice about the Phantom IL earlier this year with that suspension, and Falvey is running a lame duck front office right now (contracts end this year, and they haven't been renewed).

    Now if Paddack really is suffering from shoulder fatigue or dead arm, the IL trip is warranted.
    In Maeda's case last year, his velo looked like this 91.0 -> 89.3 -> 89.0 -> 88.5.
    Paddack's case over his last few starts: 91.5 -> 95.0 -> 95.2 -> 93.7

    When I looked at Paddack's results and charted them for the season, he started off with higher velocity, which gradually trended down, but was up and down from start to start, with his control trending gradually up in a similar way. Basically, Paddack was trying to find more control, which is usually the last thing to return for pitchers coming back from TJ. The recent starts are not indicative of dead arm, they're more indicative of a starter who isn't very good right now. 

    I’m definitely on board with it needing to be a legit case of dead arm/fatigue. I wasn’t explicit in saying that.

    My point was more that his recent inconsistency seems consistent with guys running into a fatigue factor when coming back from TJS.

    He was able to average nearly 92 pitches over his first nine starts but has only gotten above 88 in one of his last five. Obviously, there’s more than fatigue going on in determining how many pitches a guy throws. There’s effectiveness, which he hasn’t had lately.

    Your velo stats don’t suggest fatigue, which is very helpful. At the same time, my sense is that TJS fatigue is as much about not being able to MAINTAIN sharpness and velocity as it is about not being able to find them at all. It seems like sometimes he has one and sometimes the other. Sometimes he’s had both and sometimes he has neither. And sometimes those different permutations happen within the same game. And can change quickly.

    Sorry — didn’t mean to turn this into an analysis of why Paddack has struggled. I’m also one who often says, “These folks are way closer to the scene than those of us on TD,” so I don’t like it when people make speculative statements. I wasn’t trying to do that.

    All that to say, I’m with you on not wanting them to manufacture an injury. However, as an endurance coach by trade (track and field/cross country), I also admit I come from a bias toward trying to nip overuse injuries in the bud, while also trying to be strategic in when to use extra rest, which is where the ASB scenario is coming from. I see it as a conversation where you’re saying to the athlete, “Look, from what you’re feeling and what we’re seeing in our measurements, it seems clear that you aren’t going to be able to make every start from here to the end of the year. In fact, your recovery would likely benefit from missing more than just a single start. How can we build in an extended rest so that it best benefits both you and the team?”

    ————

    On the topic of phantom IL stints, I recently read “The Tao of the Backup Catcher,” by Tim Johnson with Erik Kratz. ! highly recommend it,

    In it, Kratz tells of being told late in his career to invent an injury to create an IL stint. I’ve had opportunity to get to know him on a personal level, so I’m pretty confident it wasn’t embellishment for the purpose of selling books. (And besides, it’s not a book based on sensationalism anyway.)

    He doesn’t name names, but it can be sleuthed out which team it happened with. He talks about the difficult spot he was in. He’s a man of integrity and it’s the intangibles that kept him in the game until almost 40 and now he’s being asked to go against those, knowing that if he doesn’t, a DFA could be the end of his career.




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