Is Bailey Ober Sustainable?

Bailey Ober has experienced moderate success with 2.7 fWAR in almost 160 Major League innings, and he’s looked excellent to start this season. In addition, quality starting pitching is held at a premium, and having depth in that category presents a massive advantage over the rest of the league. 

So it may seem disingenuous to suggest a starter with a career 3.66 ERA in roughly an entire season’s worth of work to move to the bullpen, especially for a team stretching its starting pitcher depth. However, there are warning signs that Ober’s success may not be sustainable to the level at which he’s performed.

Health is the most apparent and straightforward reason to explain this transition. Ober has suffered extended missed time in multiple seasons with multiple lower body injuries that include mostly hip problems; this doesn’t bode well in the future for a six-foot nine-inch 270-pound body entering his late 20s. 

Bailey Ober has pitched professionally since 2017 and has only once eclipsed the 100-inning mark in a season. Hopefully, this season he can find that number again. However, as far as the data says, Ober is too unreliable to pencil in a starting pitcher’s workload, even with that standard diminishing. 

Another factor likely affected by his health track record but also has some to do with his stuff is Ober’s inability to pitch deep into games. Ober has recorded over 18 outs only once in 33 starts during his Big League career. One part of this is the Twins likely trying to lessen his workload. In his rookie season in 2021, they ensured he was adequately built up after not pitching a minor league season in 2020 that contributed to short starts.

I believe his starts are also cut short because of his splits the first and second time through the order and his splits versus lefties and righties. 

Here are comparative numbers first time through vs. second time through (per Fangraphs): 

ERA: 2.42 vs. 4.96
FIP: 3.56 vs. 4.27
Slash: .217/.267/.388 vs .274/.318/.479
wOBA: .283 vs .340
K-BB%: 22.6% vs 16.6%
Hard contact%: 30.1% vs. 37.2%

He’s only faced 76 total batters the third time through, albeit with relative success, but the sample is small enough that I’m not sure it’s worth much consideration. With the dropoff in results from the first to the second time in the order, there is no reason to trust Ober to be successful a third time, which will limit his ability to work deep into games. 

As stated before, Ober also suffers from extreme platoon splits. Here are his comparative numbers against left-handed vs. right-handed hitters:

(R vs. L)
Slash: .217/.237/.411 vs .274/.341/.441
K-BB%: 24.9% vs 11.7%
WHIP: 0.89 vs. 1.48
FIP: 3.52 vs. 4.33
wOBA: .273 vs .339

While you may or may not agree with the stance of protecting pitchers who face a lineup multiple times, there is no denying Ober dominates right-handed hitters and struggles against left-handed ones. Being susceptible to platoon matchups, Ober would likely struggle against heavy left-handed or switch-hitting teams (like the Guardians) and would force a manager’s hand to play matchups in a high-leverage situation during the middle innings. 

Which isn’t to say Ober can’t be a mid-rotation caliber starter. Still, he will need to take steps forward (perhaps with his change-up) to increase his effectiveness against left-handed hitters to reach that ceiling, luckily a correctable problem. The topic of a bullpen move is premature, as this is likely a 2024 or 2025 subject and requires some other arms in the organization to reach their potential.

I could also see the Twins having Ober be in the rotation for most of the regular season and transitioning to the bullpen for the postseason, a lot like Kenta Maeda did for the Dodgers for many years. Given his success in the early innings and his domination of right-handed hitters, I believe Ober would be a capable, high-leverage reliever. 

With a move to the bullpen, you can limit Ober’s workload even further, as health is by far the most impactful reason for this, and possibly get more production from him in the long run. You can also control his matchups, take advantage of his strengths, and mask his weaknesses. 

I think, if nothing else, these holes in Ober’s game are worth pointing out to level expectations and seeing that a Brad Peacock -type career of a hybrid starting/relief role could be in the balance if adjustments are not made. Ultimately the goal for the Twins should be to reach the level the Astros or Dodgers were at when they could afford to have pitchers like Peacock and Maeda in the bullpen.