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FT. MYERS, FL - Fans were riding high when the 2023 Minnesota Twins concluded their season with a postseason series sweep over the Toronto Blue Jays and a hard-fought elimination at the hands of the Houston Astros. The organization had seen heights it hadn’t reached in decades, and 2024 would bring promise.
Reinforcing that promise didn't have to mean giving Sonny Gray a gaudy contract or retaining Kenta Maeda. In some fashion, though, their production had to be accounted for. Leaning on Chris Paddack to throw 140-plus quality innings felt a bit like a pipe dream, and giving someone of Anthony DeSclafani’s caliber an unchallenged rotation spot couldn’t happen. However, the ownership group chose this rotation path, and now it will be on the lineup to pick up the inevitable slack.
When Derek Falvey announced the Twins' injuries heading into the season on Monday, the hits just kept coming. DeSclafani has been behind all camp, but with a visit to a surgeon on tap, pitching at all is a real question. Jhoan Durán and Caleb Thielbar are out, and that takes two prominent arms from what could be a bullpen that could contend for the best in baseball. Matt Canterino being injured again was just a cherry on top.
So, less than two weeks before Opening Day in Kansas City, Rocco Baldelli must turn to Louie Varland as his fifth starter. He’s been great this spring and probably is a better option than DeSclafani, but the depth is immediately in use. The bullpen loses two high-leverage arms, and a group that would need to cover more innings than last year is now thinner than it should be.
Enter a necessary clean bill of health for Royce Lewis, Carlos Correa, Byron Buxton, and every other regular that flanks them. It’s great that the guys hitting in the lineup have been good to go daily this spring, but that must continue over the next weeks and months if Minnesota is going to mask some of the issues they will now have on the mound.
In 2023, the Twins rotation had the fifth-lowest ERA in baseball while compiling the fourth-highest fWAR. Avoiding any interest in spending money on that group, even with critical departures, they pushed resources toward the bullpen. Minnesota’s wRC+ was sixth in baseball, and their offensive fWAR was worth the 10th-highest amount. Those results are acceptable but buoyed heavily by a second-half stretch that had them in the top three.
Beyond the front office dealing with only limited resources this offseason, it’s clear that the blueprint was built with the belief that regular contributors would be back to themselves. For all his late-season heroics, Lewis played in just 58 games. Correa battled through plantar fasciitis all season, and Buxton never got to a point where he felt normal. Those things are all currently in the rearview mirror, but it is the belief and hope of the organization that they will remain that way.
It’s almost inexcusable that the Twins didn’t sign another legitimate arm to bolster the rotation. Should they find themselves in contention, they will probably make such an addition through a summer trade. Not needing to thread that needle by putting the utmost pressure on the lineup each day could also have been part of the plan.
Now, already diving into pitching depth, Baldelli needs to pull the right strings each time he constructs his lineup card, and those penciled in have to come through.
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