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    Hunter And Garnett: The Marketing Angle


    Nick Nelson

    After a lengthy absence, Kevin Garnett made his triumphant return to Target Center on Wednesday night, helping lead the Timberwolves to a blowout victory in front of a packed house. After the game, coach Flip Saunders said that it was the most energetic and enthusiastic he could remember the arena being in a regular-season game -- a stark contrast to the typically bleak environment at Wolves games this year.

    Watching it all play out, I suddenly find myself understanding the Twins' decision to sign Torii Hunter a little more.

    Image courtesy of Rick Osentoski, USA TODAY Sports

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    The parallels between the current situations of the Wolves and Twins are quite distinct. Here you have two retooling teams that are fueled by hugely promising waves of youth, but have been unable to hold the attention and interest of casual fans due to brutally bad on-field performance.

    You can point to the bright future all you want, but that's a tough sell when your team has one of the worst records in the league. And while many want to point to personnel miscues in both of these stalled rebuilds, the truth is that uncontrollable injury issues have been largely to blame.

    The Wolves are not as bad a team as their 13-43 record suggests, but losing Ricky Rubio, Nikola Pekovic and other key players for sizable chunks of the season left them depleted, relying on overmatched backups and teenagers. As a result, the Wolves have suffered through loss after loss, watching fan interest drain in the process.

    That's a shame, because it has caused the incredibly encouraging performances from some young players -- most notably Andrew Wiggins -- to get overlooked. Somewhat quietly, Wiggins is enjoying one of the best seasons for a player his age in NBA history, but fans here in Minnesota have been so uninvested in the team that many haven't fully taken notice.

    The arrival of Garnett certainly provides a jolt on the court; though, at this stage of his career, probably not one as substantial as the giddy TV crew on Wednesday night would have you believe. More importantly, he's bringing back the fans. Nostalgia and familiarity for KG prompted Wolves faithful to fill up Target Center for his first game back and will almost certainly lead to increased attendance the rest of the year.

    While it's all well and good that those fans will get to watch KG do his thing for 20 minutes a night, the more important thing is that they'll get to watch players like Rubio, Wiggins, Zach LaVine and Shabazz Muhammad. KG isn't the future -- those guys are.

    The same dynamic is in play for the Twins with the Hunter signing. While the organization is moving in the right direction, casual fans can't be blamed for their reluctance to buy in after a fourth straight 90-loss season. While the club hardly expected to contend last year, they did expect to offer more glimpses of the promising future. Unfortunately, having the seasons of their two best prospects completely derailed by injury threw a big wrench into what should have been a youth showcase summer.

    The Twins still had young players like Danny Santana and Kennys Vargas break through, but those performances garnered reduced fanfare with the club posting its lowest attendance total since 2005.

    A beloved and familiar face like Hunter, who people associate with the success of the mid-2000s, will help draw back some of the less hardcore fans that might not presently have kids like Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano on their radar.

    I continue to believe that Hunter is a rather poor fit from a baseball perspective, but I'm coming around on the potential overall benefits of the move. It's more challenging for me to analyze anything from a business angle than strictly wins-and-losses, but the value of getting more fans in the seats -- and exposing those fans to what should hopefully be an exciting and productive group of young players -- is obvious.

    With both the Hunter and Garnett additions, there was some initial backlash that perhaps too much was given up to acquire players who won't be around long and won't drastically improve the quality of their respective teams. But in the big picture, the Wolves gave up a guy in Thaddeus Young who wasn't going to be part of the long-term equation, and while the Twins paid heftily for Hunter, they gave up nothing but money and it's a one-year deal.

    My initial reaction was that Hunter's "intangible" qualities were not enough to justify spending that much while surpassing other options who would have fit better as players, and I still believe his impact as a leader and mentor is being overblown to some extent, but seeing the response to Garnett's return does open my eyes a bit.

    If a casual fan shuffled into Target Center on Wednesday because of the Garnett buzz and then watched Rubio deliver a gorgeous bounce pass to Wiggins, who

    as part of an impressive 19-point performance, the trade is paying dividends well beyond what KG is doing on the court.

    Hopefully the same can be true of a Twins fan who might be enticed to come to the ballpark to relive some Hunter nostalgia, only to be treated to a triple by Buxton, a prodigious home run by Oswaldo Arcia or a 10-strikeout game from Alex Meyer or Trevor May.

    Bringing back past franchise fixtures -- who at least have a chance to contribute positively -- to help get fans invested in the young players that really matter. That's not so hard to figure.

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    I challenge any TD member to find 10 posts better than this.

    yes, nothing sells a point better than bringing up a mother's basement :-) 

     

    What parameters are you going to allow for the challenge?  Do they all have to have nerd insults? ;-)

    Edited by jimmer

    yes, nothing sells a point better than bringing up a mother's basement :-) 

     

    What parameters are you going to allow for the challenge?  Do they all have to have nerd insults? ;-)

    First, nominate 10 posts. Then I will select the parameters.

    Metrics (even the "old-fashioned ones") are to measure the hitting, catching, throwing, and running, (pitching too!).   How well they measure each of those attributes is open to debate, but some sort of quantification of the "eye test" is required.  Completly dismissing the use of statistics is anal, they have been used for a very long time (e.g. "the old-fashioned ones").

    Nobody's dismissing the use of statistics.  At issue is the attempt of so many to re-invent the wheel-insisting that the new stuff that's been around for 10 years is so much better than the tried and true stuff that's worked for a hundred years.  Don't get me wrong.  I was reading Bill James' stuff 30 years ago-when a lot of these youngsters were still in diapers.  It was, and still is, interesting reading.  But the game isn't played on paper it's played on the field.  If computers could guarantee us winners we wouldn't need to use human players with flaws and intangibles that nobody can measure and all 30 teams would win the World Series every year.  Wouldn't that be grand.

    Outside of Clete, those guys got very few at-bats. And they never really comprised our whole outfield --we got similar or better production than Hunter from Willingham the past 3 years. Heck, even Doumit's 2012 was similar to Hunter's recent efforts.

     

    I would have liked to have seen an effort to get a better player (even just one who could cover CF) or at least one with more of a (playing) future in MN. Or compliments Arcia in skill set.

     

    Willingham isn't here anymore and there really isn't an internal option to replace him.  Nunez started 16 games in the OF/DH.  Colabello got 220 PA's between DH and OF.  Herrmann started 15 games in the OF.  Kubel got 176 PA's between DH and OF.  That's a lot of AB's to guys that were almost certainly going to be bad players. 

     

    I think it would have been great to get a really good player with a future but do you have any idea how hard that type of player is to find or acquire.  In addition to that I'm not sure the Twins need to spend the money or trade assets on that type of player with several guys that should be ready to be promoted in the next year or two.  Hunter is cheap (really he is) and he's on a 1 yr contract so he doesn't block anyone long term. 

    Willingham isn't here anymore and there really isn't an internal option to replace him. Nunez started 16 games in the OF/DH. Colabello got 220 PA's between DH and OF. Herrmann started 15 games in the OF. Kubel got 176 PA's between DH and OF. That's a lot of AB's to guys that were almost certainly going to be bad players.

     

    I think it would have been great to get a really good player with a future but do you have any idea how hard that type of player is to find or acquire. In addition to that I'm not sure the Twins need to spend the money or trade assets on that type of player with several guys that should be ready to be promoted in the next year or two. Hunter is cheap (really he is) and he's on a 1 yr contract so he doesn't block anyone long term.

    Willingham mention had 2 points:

     

    1. In response to those who said we could have benefitted from a player like Hunter the last few years -- not really true, we already had one if not two with Arcia (above average bat, below average glove, can't play center)

     

    2. And having lots of those types has caused problems over the last few years too. With an uncertain situation in CF, it has been especially difficult to have corner guys unable to slide over to help (and in fact probably need the help of a plus CF). And it makes fielding a solid across the board defensive OF, even.just for an inning or two, virtually impossible because we can't roster that many glove caddies at once.

     

    Yet what was our #1 offseason priority? Signing exactly this type of player again. Agreed it was not necessarily easy to get a better guy for a similar cost, but evidence suggests we did not try too hard, and we probavly could have found a guy who was a better FIT for our current roster even if he was not a better overall player than Hunter.

    I remain unconvinced that the Twins could have easily have gotten a player that was good at anything (defense or offense).  I think that there's a good chance that the Twins could have done worse than Hunter.  The important thing is that Hunter is on a one year contract so he won't block any prospects.  When you are shopping in the one year stopgap category you really can't afford to be choosy. 

     

    I expect the Twins to be looking for long term solutions that improve the defense.  That doesn't mean that they should overreact when looking for a one year stopgap and end up with someone that is awful.

    Like the starting pitching situation, OF defense doesn't hinge on a single decision at a single moment in time. Perhaps there was nothing better than Hunter in November 2014, but the OF defense had been a clear need for at least 2 years by that point.

    Willingham mention had 2 points:

    1. In response to those who said we could have benefitted from a player like Hunter the last few years -- not really true, we already had one if not two with Arcia (above average bat, below average glove, can't play center)

    .

     

    Someone posted a list of the outfielders with a higher WAR than Hunter in 2014. None of them were Twins.

     

    Now I'm not a big fan of WAR, but many are, and using that list, I repeat my statement: the Twins would have been lucky to have had Hunter in 2014.

     

    It seems odd for someone to post a list that shows the Twins are adding a player who would have been a better OFer than every Twin in 2014, and claim that list is evidence it's a bad signing.

     

    Willingham was part of that list, by the way...below Hunter.

     

    So I stand by my original post...the Twins would have been better off with Hunter on the team in 2014.

     

    Which proves nothing about 2015, I agree, but neither does 2014 UZR.

    Someone posted a list of the outfielders with a higher WAR than Hunter in 2014. None of them were Twins.

     

    Now I'm not a big fan of WAR, but many are, and using that list, I repeat my statement: the Twins would have been lucky to have had Hunter in 2014.

     

    It seems odd for someone to post a list that shows the Twins are adding a player who would have been a better OFer than every Twin in 2014, and claim that list is evidence it's a bad signing.

     

    Willingham was part of that list, by the way...below Hunter.

     

    So I stand by my original post...the Twins would have been better off with Hunter on the team in 2014.

     

    Which proves nothing about 2015, I agree, but neither does 2014 UZR.

    Chief, it wasn't my list, but I seriously question its accuracy if it did not have Danny Santana way ahead of Torii Hunter for 2014 WAR.

     

    Heck, a quick check of B-Ref WAR shows that Willingham beat Hunter handily in half the PA, and Arcia edged Hunter too in fewer PA.

     

    Adding Hunter to the 2014 Twins would have been at best a lateral move (trading Willingham earlier), and possibly a negative move if it removed opportunities for Arcia, Santana, and Vargas. And for 2015, it is mostly a latetal move, maintaining many of the frustrating characteristics of our outfield the past two years.

    Really not sure where that list came from, Torii 2014 was bested in fWAR by Santana, Willingham, Arcia, and even Fuld.

     

    Even just by wRC+ (offense only), he's well behind Santana, tied with Willingham, and only nominally ahead of Arcia.

     

    Best case of Torii on the 2014 Twins, we dump Willingham before the season and save ourselves from 40 games of Kubel etc. taking Willingham's place while hurt, but then again we also quite possibly don't reluctantly claim Fuld.

    Chief, it wasn't my list, but I seriously question its accuracy if it did not have Danny Santana way ahead of Torii Hunter for 2014 WAR.

     

     

    List might have just been for qualifying OF.  Santana didn't have enough PAs to do that.  Santana's WAR was 3.2 and his wRC+ was in the 130s.

    Edited by jimmer



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