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    How Cole Ragans Offers Hope for a Similarly Talented Twins Southpaw


    Matthew Lenz

    Cole Ragans had multiple UCL surgeries before he turned 22. Despite that, he's turned into a Cy Young-caliber starting pitcher, and he earned himself some guaranteed money before entering arbitration. His story should have Minnesota Twins fans optimistic about a pitching prospect who has faced similar adversity.

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    After being drafted 30th overall by the Texas Rangers in 2016, Cole Ragans had a good start to his 2017 campaign with Low-A Spokane, carrying a 3.80 FIP and 34.8% strikeout rate at 19 years old. Unfortunately, he left his Aug. 30 start after just 1 ⅔ innings with elbow discomfort. That led to his first UCL procedure. He had a subsequent surgery on Mar. 28, 2018, after feeling pain in the same elbow during a spring training intrasquad game

    After a long rehab process and losing 2020 to COVID, it ended up being 1,344 days between starts for the left-hander. He returned on May 5, 2021, and has impressed ever since. In 2024, he finished fourth in Cy Young voting, and he recently signed a three-year deal, giving him cost certainty during his arbitration years. The 27-year-old has flourished in the face of adversity, which should leave Twins fans optimistic about Connor Prielipp’s future.

    Like Ragans, Prielipp has had multiple UCL surgeries before he could make it past High-A ball, although the circumstances surrounding those procedures were a bit different. Prielipp had his first Tommy John during his sophomore season with the University of Alabama. Despite the injury and limited track record, he declared for the 2022 MLB Draft and was selected by the Twins in the second round. It was a high-risk, high-reward selection, and it wouldn't take long for the Twins and Prielipp to see the risk go from an abstraction to a concrete problem. He experienced arm soreness two appearances into his professional career, leading to his second elbow surgery at 22 years old. While it remains to be seen exactly how well Prielipp rebounds from these procedures, Ragans represents hope that the lefty now sees the reward materialize into a productive and healthy 2025 season.

    While Prielipp is likely to start the year where he ended 2024 (at Cedar Rapids), he’s one of those arms who could sprint through the minor-league levels (which would be another similarity to Ragans). In fact, before the Danny Coulombe signing, Greggory Masterson that Prielipp could be the left-handed reliever the Twins needed for 2025, and Nash Walker called him a “Major X Factor”. While it was always unlikely he would debut in 2025, it just reinforces how impactful he can be if he stays healthy. Realistically, it's probably best for the 24-year-old to prioritize making it through an entire minor-league season and instead set his sights on 2026 for that breakthrough.

    If everything falls right, Prielipp could have a Ragans-esque ascension and impact on the Twins very soon. If that happens, we may look back to the team-friendly three-year deal that Ragans just signed as a blueprint for the Twins to lock in some cost certainty for Prielipp. While Ragans is the exception to the rule, Prielipp has the arm talent to flourish in the face of adversity.

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    The 22-year-old went 2-for-5 on Friday night, his fourth straight multi-hit game. Heading into the week, he was hitting .246/.328/.404 (.732). Four games later, he is hitting .303/.361/.447 (.808).

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    On 2/18/2025 at 12:32 PM, jorgenswest said:

    The Rangers did not have enough patience or trust in his health with Ragans. They would not have traded a top half of the rotation starter if they saw that in his near future. Is this a lesson for the Twins?


     

    Traded a top half of the rotation starter for a bullpen rental. They do not do this trade if allowed to turn back time. They trade the player the Royals probably originally asked for instead. 

    If anybody has any thought that the front offices of any club has this assessment thing down. They don't. 

    Aroldis Chapman was a rental. 2023 was a year of Chapman needing to rehabilitate his reputation. He was left of the Yankees playoff roster in 2022. He dropped from 16 million AAV to a 3 million deal with the Royals. 

    What did the Royals think of Ragans? He wasn't enough to acquire a bullpen rental. The Royals required the Rangers to also include an outfielder by the name of Roni Cabrera. 

    We can look back and say... Boy those Rangers sure blew this one. The Royals also didn't know what they had because they required another player to get the deal done for a bullpen rental. 

    Assessment is hard. There is no reason to be afraid of youth. I'll be hoping for the health of our young lefthander. 

     

    And the Royals were probably asking for somebody else. 

     

    10 hours ago, Vanimal46 said:

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    So if he became an elite pitcher that wouldn't be awesome?  The second part said it wasn't a far fetched idea,  its not a baseline,  but he has the ceiling that could achieve that.  I don't know where he will end up.   His stuff is ridiculous though, especially for a lefty.  

    43 minutes ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

    So if he became an elite pitcher that wouldn't be awesome?  The second part said it wasn't a far fetched idea,  its not a baseline,  but he has the ceiling that could achieve that.  I don't know where he will end up.   His stuff is ridiculous though, especially for a lefty.  

    His ceiling hasn’t dropped an inch after all of his injuries? 

    4 hours ago, Vanimal46 said:

    His ceiling hasn’t dropped an inch after all of his injuries? 

    He hit 98 mph on the fastball just the other day,  and his slider still has the crazy spin that is having horizontal and vertical drop,  with a wicked change-up.  that is 3 pitches all coming from the exact same arm slot causing major tunnel issues for a hitter.  15 strikeouts in 9 innings pitched  would tell you high A ball or not is crazy. If he can maintain his stuff, as he goes longer outings and remain healthy,  that upside is absolutely still a #1 type pitcher.   

    That is what he did AFTER the injuries.  What you worry about injuries is that it saps the velocity or movement or the major risk here is that he will continue to have injuries.  My viewpoint is it was 1 big injury,  yes there is some future risk of injury, but that up to this point it doesn't seem affect his velocity and thus his upside.  Maybe in your view it does.  However, like Ragans who had significant time off for injuries and inconsistency at that MLB level, that caused him to  traded from Texas to Kansas City in the Chapman trade,  it doesn't negate the ultimate talent there.  The talent just has to be healthy enough to stay on the field and execute.  .  

    On 2/18/2025 at 10:12 AM, bean5302 said:

    Since he ended last year at 3.0 inning outings, I'd think he'd pick back up there for maybe April.
    April 3.0 inning, 50 pitches max
    May 4.0 inning, 60 pitches max
    June 4.0 inning. 70 pitches max
    July 5.0 inning. 75 pitches max
    August 5.0 inning. 80 pitches max
    September 6.0 inning. 85 pitches max
    100 innings-ish total

    Something like that is what I'd expect to see, though obviously not that steady on a start to start basis. I think a lot of it depends on whether or not Prielipp can remain healthy. It's a tall call since Prielipp has mostly been out of action for so long. Will his conditioning hold up or will he start having fatigue during the long season? That 98mph in mid-Feb isn't necessarily a great thing if he's pushing like it's a tryout and risking his arm.

    I also don't think there's almost any chance of seeing Prielipp out of the 'pen at the MLB level. He's not on the 40 man and he doesn't need to be added until this offseason. The Twins shouldn't need to manage his innings late in the year, and while he'll probably start off in AA, that's still a lot of ground to cover where he'll have to A) be outstanding B) remain healthy where the Twins C) have a real need for a reliever and D) will trust an unproven MiLB player to provide those reliever innings.

    If CP is lights out the 1st 90 days and can work 4 innings, he will be added to the 40 man as soon as an injury happens and the twins need a lefty.  He has the highest ceiling of all the LHP depth. He may just knock the door down.




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