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    Here's Why You Don't Need to Freak Out Over the Twins Trading Prospects

    Tom Froemming

    By Tom Froemming

    Now that Craig Kimbrel and Dallas Keuchel have finally signed, the Twins will have to trade away prospects if they want to improve the pitching staff. It’s going to be OK, because prospect hoarding isn’t really allowed anyway. If the Twins don’t thin out the herd a bit, they may lose valuable pieces and get nothing in return.

    Image courtesy of Seth Stohs, Twins Daily (photo of Jhoan Duran)

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    Kimbrel is a Cub, Keuchel is a Brave and so now the Twins are going to have to spend prospect capital to boost their pitching instead of “just” money. As things currently stand, the Twins appear to have several difficult decisions on the horizon this offseason anyway, so dealing a few prospects for bullpen help may actually help clear up space.

    A big crop of Twins prospects will be eligible for the Rule 5 Draft for the first time this winter. That means the team will either have to add them to the 40-man roster or risk potentially losing them to another organization.

    For more on the Rule 5 Draft, check out Jeremy’s article on the subject from last month. Jeremy also maintains an amazing Twins Roster and Payroll spreadsheet that’s available on the top navbar at the desktop version of the site (click on Roster & Payroll) or you can just access it here.

    Rule 5 Eligibles

    Here’s a list of some of the players who will be eligible for the Rule 5 Draft for the first time this winter:

    Travis Blankenhorn

    Wander Javier

    Luke Raley

    Jorge Alcala

    Edwar Colina

    Jhoan Duran

    Brusdar Graterol

    Griffin Jax

    That group of players joins another few guys having impressive seasons who were already Rule 5 Draft eligible in Lewin Diaz, Jaylin Davis and Zander Wiel.

    Not all of those players would end up being selected, but why risk losing them for nothing when you can turn them into trade bait? Of course, the other option would be to try and deal some of the other young players currently on the 40-man roster to avoid that logjam. Guys like Luis Arraez, Nick Gordon, Lewis Thorpe, LaMonte Wade or even Jake Cave.

    But Wait, Isn’t the System Having a Down Year?

    It’s true that there are a lot of guys on the shelf right now, and some who are active have not been putting up great numbers. But, what Royce Lewis does in the first few months of 2019 in Fort Myers probably doesn’t have a huge impact on who he ends up being in, say 2022. The same is likely with Brusdar Graterol and his shoulder impingement

    Likewise, Alex Kirilloff missing some time this year doesn’t really cloud his future outlook too much. I mean, the guy already missed a year due to Tommy John and still established himself as among the better hitters in the minor leagues last year. Speaking of Tommy John surgery, that's what's going to cost Akil Baddoo the rest of his 2019 season.

    And while there have been blips, there have been other guys who’ve surged. Diaz, Blankenhorn and Davis are having tremendous seasons. Jordan Balazovic has really exploded, Gordon appears to be having a bounce back and Ben Rortvedt is another riser. Misael Urbina is a player you can expect to hear a lot about in the coming years.

    Trevor Larnach, Ryan Jeffers and Cole Sands from last year’s draft continue to look good. Speaking of which, the Twins just added a bunch of new talent via the 2019 Draft. Click here for an update for who has signed. Where will those new draftees fit as far as the rankings? You'll find out soon, as Twins Daily will be sharing our 2019 Midseason Twins Prospect List in the coming weeks.

    The farm system is always going to need to be an area of focus for the Twins, but if there was ever a time to part with some prospects to improve the big club, now’s the time.

    40-Man Roster Spots Opening Up

    The Twins do have several players currently set to become free agents at the end of the season. That group is highlighted by Jake Odorizzi, Jason Castro, Michael Pineda, Kyle Gibson and Jonathan Schoop. There also always seems to be some fat that can be trimmed from the 40-man roster.

    But, I suspect the Twins will be more interested in free agent additions to replace those departures rather than just protecting prospects. When the competitive window opens, priorities have to change at least a little bit.

    No, I’m not saying I expect the Twins to be active at the top of the market, but it is pretty easy to envision Derek Favley and Co. setting out to add another solid crop of veterans in the middle tier, much like they did this past offseason. Rocco Baldelli seems to be establishing a very player-friendly atmosphere. That, combined with the team’s success, should make Minnesota an attractive destination for free agents.

    Recommended further reading: When the Twins Go Buying ... Who Are They Selling?

    Follow Tom Froemming on Twitter: TFTwins

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    markos

    markos 2,012

  • Provisional Member

    • Posted

     

    Depends how you define "blue chippers" -- I was thinking elite prospects, or at least top 50. Of those, we might be down to Lewis and Kirilloff and both are facing some challenges right now. In the context of acquiring a long-term impact player, that would be important (although the other guys could be in the package too).

    Piggy-backing on this, the Twins certainly aren't in the best prospect position among contenders (and prospective deadline buyers). While no other team could really match the Lewis-Kiriloff combo coming into the season, once you broaden things to look at the top-50-to-75 prospects, other teams really shine. The Braves have 6-8 guys in that range, as do the Rays. Dodgers and Astros each have 4ish. And the Twins players in this range (other than Larnach) haven't really excelled this season for various reasons.

     

    I think the Twins biggest problem heading into the trade deadline is this:

    - generally speaking, most of the best players traded every year are either elite rental players or good players with another year or two of team control.

    - these kind of players general don't require a "blue-chip" prospect to acquire, but more generally a package headlined by a prospect in the back-half of top-100 lists. 

    - due to injury/ineffectiveness, this is the area where the Twins have Larnach and not much else. Graterol is injured, Javier isn't playing well.

    - Larnach, while a good player and prospect, is probably not as valuable as his ranking would indicate. He is a bat-first corner outfielder who is still in high-A. Not every team is going to be excited about that profile.

     

    As a hypothetical, Ken Giles will probably be traded, and I could see him fetching a top-100 prospect. He is the type of player that the Twins would probably be willing to give up Larnach to acquire, but loath to include Kirilloff or Lewis. However, I'm not sure that the Twins could WIN a trade sweepstakes with a deal centered around Larnach. Other teams could easily include equivalently talented players at positions with more value and upside, or in closer proximity to the majors.

    Guest

    Guest

  • Guests

    • Posted

     

    I think the Twins biggest problem heading into the trade deadline is this:

    - generally speaking, most of the best players traded every year are either elite rental players or good players with another year or two of team control.

    - these kind of players general don't require a "blue-chip" prospect to acquire, but more generally a package headlined by a prospect in the back-half of top-100 lists. 

    - due to injury/ineffectiveness, this is the area where the Twins have Larnach and not much else. Graterol is injured, Javier isn't playing well.

    - Larnach, while a good player and prospect, is probably not as valuable as his ranking would indicate. He is a bat-first corner outfielder who is still in high-A. Not every team is going to be excited about that profile.

     

    As a hypothetical, Ken Giles will probably be traded, and I could see him fetching a top-100 prospect. He is the type of player that the Twins would probably be willing to give up Larnach to acquire, but loath to include Kirilloff or Lewis. However, I'm not sure that the Twins could WIN a trade sweepstakes with a deal centered around Larnach. Other teams could easily include equivalently talented players at positions with more value and upside, or in closer proximity to the majors.

    I understand your point and I don't totally disagree, but several of that loaded Miracle roster have got to be getting promoted now that the FSL AllStar game is finished. Larnach and Diaz, in particular, are clearly ready for AA. 

     

    Let's say one (or both) continue to pop over the next 3 weeks or so in Pensacola. Suddenly, now those guys are viewed very differently, no? They're potentially considered very close to "Major League Ready."

    Riverbrian

    Riverbrian 42,821

  • Old-Timey Member

    • Posted

     

    On Encarnacion, keep in mind HR hitters are going to be cheaper than good pitchers in this market. And Encarnacion isn't even viewed as capable of everyday 1B duty, further limiting his market. We could have topped that offer if we wanted, but that has little bearing on our quest for pitching.

     

    That said, we should still be able to get quality pitchers with our prospect pool. Depending on how you define "impact" players -- if you focused on longer-term impact guys -- our lack of blue-chippers (and the current health/scuffles of a few of our top blue chippers) might complicate that a bit. But for immediate impact guys, we should have no problem paying the prospect price, I would think.

     

    In my opinion... the Yankees were already extremely deep offensively. So much so... that I think it is quite possible that the acquisition of EE doesn't move the offensive needle upward that much. 

     

    However... Where EE can really move the needle for the Yankees is in the form of the next trade they make for starting pitching. EE allows them to trade a quality position player for a starter and not move the offensive needle downward and really moving the needle on the mound.  

     

    The Twins were always capable of this type of creativity. If the price was cheap for EE... I hope that the front office didn't say to themselves... "We got Cron and Cruz so where are we going to put EE"? 

     

    But Yeah... The Yankees had the advantage because they could easily shift Stanton to the OF and then move an OF for starting pitching. That's the beauty of depth and flexibility. 

    Brock Beauchamp

    Brock Beauchamp 44,054

  • Site Manager

    • Posted

     

    Limited market (AL contenders only), Yankees supplied money.

    I get it but the Yankees didn't even take on *all* the money and Encarnacion is one of the best hitters in baseball.

     

    Not sure what the hell Seattle was thinking, to be honest. If they were willing to pay money (which they did), it seems the Red Sox or Cleveland or Tampa would have been willing to give something to get the guy.

    Otto von Ballpark

    Otto von Ballpark 20,382

  • Old-Timey Member

    • Posted

     

    I get it but the Yankees didn't even take on *all* the money and Encarnacion is one of the best hitters in baseball.

     

    Not sure what the hell Seattle was thinking, to be honest. If they were willing to pay money (which they did), it seems the Red Sox or Cleveland or Tampa would have been willing to give something to get the guy.

    I think it's fair to question Dipoto's deals in Seattle, but the Yankees took on $8 mil here. I don't see Cleveland or Tampa taking on anywhere near that much, to say nothing of exceeding the Yankee prospect offer. (Juan Then is a lotto ticket to be sure, although he was 40 FV per Fangraphs -- it's not like he was just an org depth piece or something.)

     

    Boston doesn't seem to have a ton of urgency either (and they are much more limited than the Yankees in maneuvering under the $246 mil luxury tax threshold -- even $3 mil from Encarnacion could severely hamper any further trades they want to make in 2019, i.e. for a pitcher).

    bird

    bird 6,189

  • Verified Member

    • Posted (edited)

     

    Sure, I will give two points.

     

    1) You stated the Twins traded for "Cy Young candidate Odorizzi." The Twins did not trade for a Cy Young candidate. If they had, the Twins would be paying a hell of a lot more than $15M for two years and would have given up a much more important prospect. Odorizzi improved dramatically this year ... and he will be gone next year because the next person WILL be picking up a Cy Young candidate and paying those wages.

     

    2) You listed practically every prospect in the Twins system. A full team's worth of awesome prospects. That's simply never happened to anybody.

     

     

    1. I described Odorizzi as an All Star candidate and a Cy Young candidate. Why? Because he is regarded this season as such. I did not say he came to us as such, did I? But you apparently missed my point, which is that a middling Twins prospect, the type you contend is not worth much, was worth enough to get Odorizzi.

     

    The Twins literally have 3 dozen better prospects than Palacios, who was their 4th or 5th best SHORTSTOP prospect. Actually, FanGraphs gives Palacios a 35FV, and I count 41 Twins names on their list with 40FV or higher, and many I didn't list are at Palacios' 35FV.

     

    2. You appear to be out of touch and dismissive with everyone's opinion but your own. Is there any expert opinion on prospects you respect or find credible? I'll give you the opinions of two expert sources. Note that they don't use the word awesome or any other rather juvenile description of these prospects. That was YOUR word.

     

    a. FanGraphs, in their Scoreboard report, listed 41 Twins prospects. I listed most of the roughly 35 that earned a 40FV or better. Four of those prospects are in their Top 100. BA has those four plus Balazovic in their Top 100 prospects. Down towards the BOTTOM of this list you claim has no value? Players like Smeltzer, Gonsalves, and Blankenhorn, and I promise you that you'd be laughed out of the room if you described these prospects as having no value to a professional evaluator. As I said, maybe individually each prospect's value isn't massive, but collectively? There's tons of value.

     

    b. Sickles, in HIS last report, listed more Twins prospects as having a B- grade or better than all but maybe one other system IIRC. He describes these guys as having a good chance to become every day players, or at least role players in MLB.  The Twins had almost two dozen of these prospects. So yeah, pretty much a whole team's worth of what you call awesome prospects. BTW, yes, it's commonly understood that half of these prospects will peter out.

     

    Neither FanGraphs or Sickles named just about every player and neither did I.

     

    Back to the OP: the Twins don't need to freak out about losing prospects because they have an abundance of value, not because, as you opined, they don't have any prospects that are worth much.

     

    Edited by birdwatcher
    Brock Beauchamp

    Brock Beauchamp 44,054

  • Site Manager

    • Posted

    I think it's fair to question Dipoto's deals in Seattle, but the Yankees took on $8 mil here. I don't see Cleveland or Tampa taking on anywhere near that much, to say nothing of exceeding the Yankee prospect offer. (Juan Then is a lotto ticket to be sure, although he was 40 FV per Fangraphs -- it's not like he was just an org depth piece or something.)

     

    Boston doesn't seem to have a ton of urgency either (and they are much more limited than the Yankees in maneuvering under the $246 mil luxury tax threshold -- even $3 mil from Encarnacion could severely hamper any further trades they want to make in 2019, i.e. for a pitcher).

    Ah, for some reason I thought the Yankees only took on $5m.
    SwainZag

    SwainZag 7,018

  • Community Moderator

    • Posted

     

    Ah, for some reason I thought the Yankees only took on $5m.

     

    They took on $8 ish total.  Half of what he was owed for the rest of this season, and will be on the hook for his $5M buyout next year, unless they exercise the $20M team option.

    bird

    bird 6,189

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

     

    Question, do the Twins really lack blue-chippers?

    Lewis, Kirilloff, Javier, Graterol, Larnach and don't you have to inlcude the 1st round pick this year for now (Cavaco) I would think are blue chippers with Balazovic, Duran and maybe Enlow right behind them.

    Are there other systems with this many guys? or are Lewis and Kirilloff the only ones considered blue chippers?

     

    Depends upon how you define it and who you ask. I think the consensus is that our "blue chip" prospects are Lewis, Kirilloff, Graterol, Larnach and maybe Balazovic. Thses are propect who are listed in Top 100 pubs.

     

    But it's important to consider who the team may regard as untouchable. This could be a function of a shortage at that position or a function of valuing someone more that the pundits do. My guesses would be that the Twins may consider all of the above as untouchable, plua others like Urbina, Javier, Enlow, Thorpe, Duran. We'll probably never know who they have in this category, if any.

     

    Other systems have more "blue chip" prospects, but not many. And perhaps a half dozen teams have depth that matches up fairly well with what the Twins have, and the 2019 Rule 4 draft likely closed the gap with a few teams. Of the top of my head, San Diego has ungodly depth AND some primo talent, as  does Atlanta. Tampa, Houston, the Dodgers, and the Yankees have depth. 

     

    If talent was distributed evenly, no team would have more than 4 players among the top 120 prospects. Given that the Twins have 5 and several teams have even more, we find that there is a huge disparity between the have-nots like Boston, KC, DC, and SF and those at the top, but it's fluid enough so one good (or bad) year of Rule 4, IFA, and trades can turn things upside down.



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