Flipping the Curse Narrative

First of all, splitting a series at Yankee stadium has to be seen as a W for any American League team that operates in a city with normal zoning laws. Factor in the Twins .250 win percentage against the Yankees in the past quarter decade and you have yourself something resembling a miracle. The Twins’ unique struggles against the Yankees have been well documented, a tragic comedy for the East Coast to enjoy as they prepare to face “real teams” like the Red Sox and Blue Jays. Observe this pitious tweet from Jon Heyman last September:

The Minnesota sports media market isn’t the poster child market for “acting like you’ve been there before.” Maybe that’s part of their issue against the Yankees and in the playoffs. 

I’ve had a few theories myself about those struggles, but the one I’ve settled on is that the Twins have historically forced a certain aesthetic involving hitting singles, going the other way, and pitching to contact. For decades starting in the 80s under Tom Kelly, they adhered to this philosophy, but as time went on it became less a commitment to “fundamentals” and more an excuse to spend less on payroll. We called it “The Twins Way™,” and it sucked. However, it can and has worked in the AL Central, where being above-average can win you a division; the Guardians proved that last year. 

Teams like the Yankees, however, who will always supplement their roster with in-their-prime free agents and big-ticket trade acquisitions, can exploit this. Accustomed to pitching against lineups that run eight to nine deep in the AL East, they are happy to pitch around the one or two stars the Twins employ and attack the Jason Tyners and Mark Contrerases of the world. 

Meanwhile, Twins pitchers, used to throwing in the zone and letting Detroit Tigers hitters get themselves out, are vexed when every pitch means something and just throwing strikes isn’t good enough. The other teams in the AL Central had various reasons for not experiencing the same fate against New York, but they mainly involve developing the kind of pitching (Mark Buehrle, Corey Kluber, C.C. Sabathia, Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, Zack Greinke, Shane Bieber, Chris Sale) that the Twins just haven’t (outside of one exception we all know and love):

© Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports

Hey.

Chicago and Detroit have also spent significant money when their teams are in contention, while Cleveland has had the smartest front office in the division for decades.

As for the Royals, they haven’t been great against the Yankees, either, but not remarkably so. That didn’t use to be the case, as they were getting bounced in the ALCS by New York three straight years in the late 70s, before sweeping New York in the 1980 ALCS. Confidence and lack thereof, is a thing, and it stacks when things don’t go well. 

In other words, there is a fine line between the psychological feeling of playing with house money, and feeling like “here we go again” as soon as anything goes wrong. All the Royals had to do, to go from the Yankees owning them, to just losing an appropriate amount owing to actually existing talent disparities, was win that one playoff series. Or maybe it was just one home run:

Could it be that Carlos Correa’s double in the eighth on Friday will have the same effect? Maybe, but the Yankees are a good team, and will continue to be a good team. Rebuilds are unnecessary for them given their resources, so over time they will likely maintain winning records against most teams. The only other team in the American League to operate that way, the Red Sox, also have a strong record against the Twins the past few decades. 

The difference between winning 45% of the time against these big-spending teams, and 25% of the time, is simply turning the tables a bit, getting lucky, or making a statement. Put the pressure on them, and don’t fall into narratives. The Yankees play in a high pressure media market and when things go south, the heat gets turned up quickly. Heck they booed their beloved Aaron Judge in the playoffs last year as he delivered his worst nine-game stretch of the season. 

They have also built rosters pretty shoddily since their last World Series appearance and win in 2009, often being forced into portioning huge amounts of their payroll or prospect capital into players they “have to” keep, or that they “have to” trade for. Think of 31 year-old Judge signing for nine years and trading real prospects for the black hole that has become Frankie Montas. Carlos Rodon already feels like an albatross, similar to Jacoby Ellsbury. That leads to less spending elsewhere, resulting in roster spots for folks like Willie Calhoun, Franchy Cordero and Aaron Hicks. The first two could have been signed by any team, and Hicks might be out of baseball if not for that unfortunate extension he signed five years ago.

Last year the Twins were still less than serious, particularly after Chris Paddack and Bailey Ober went down with injuries. Relying on Chris Archer and Dylan Bundy to provide stability to a rotation was an act of an unserious team, the sort of team that could get lucky and win the AL Central, only to get exposed in the playoffs, or to act as a willing victim for a Yankees team that loves to beat up on overmatched/over-the-hill pitching. 

Without the avalanche of injuries, it could have been different, and we saw signs that a seriousness was forming. Now, with the current hitting prospects they have in the upper minors, an elite closer, two lineup superstars, and their deepest, if not best, rotation since 1991, this Twins team is for real. Plus, it has the heliumized prospect capital (David Festa, Brooks Lee, Emmanuel Rodriguez) to make a huge move if needed at the deadline. If Pablo Lopez has truly taken his game to the next level, their ceiling goes even higher. That has been evident in this series, regardless of the Twins’ lack of hitting in the last two games. The Yankees averaged 3.25 runs per game; that’s beatable for a lineup that expects a functional Byron Buxton and Jorge Polanco to return shortly.

Now, winning the first game in this series in lopsided fashion was pretty fluky. Currently injured center-fielder Harrison Bader may have caught a few of the Twins doubles and ended the first inning before it spiraled, and the Yankees’ rookie starter was throwing high sinkers right into the Twins’ swing planes. He was also due for a clunker.

The second game was more significant. The Yankees thought they had the game won, put in their “best” reliever and saw him give it up in the eighth. Yankees fans were already worried about Clay Holmes and his 5.81 ERA since last summer, and the Twins validated those concerns. This was also the game the Twins were punting; fill-in Louis Varland was starting against All-Star Nestor Cortes Jr. 

That’s how you end a narrative in baseball. Yankees fans were horrified on Sunday that if Gerrit Cole gave up a baserunner in the ninth, that Holmes would be brought in with the tying run on. Putting the fear on the other side is new.

I’m not saying the Twins are a better team, or that the second two games of the series weren’t convincing wins for New York. As currently constructed, the Yankees have serious flaws in their lineup and pitching depth, but they’ll get healthier in their rotation, trade for a bat at the deadline, and almost certainly make the playoffs. They’ll be a real team come August. 

Real teams don’t always win playoff series, or even make the playoffs in some instances. There is a good chance one of the Rays, Blue Jays, Mariners or Yankees are on the outside looking in come October, despite the wealth of talent on their teams, but it doesn’t mean they aren’t good. It is without question that they each pose a real test to other good teams and stand a chance to win almost any game they play. 

Not only can the Twins now say the same, but they know when the Yankees come to town next week, nothing is assured. That may not end this curse, streak, or whatever you call it, but it’s certainly an improvement.