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    Don’t Sleep on Jorge Polanco


    Thiéres Rabelo
    Image courtesy of © Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports

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    Just last week, in his article about Trevor Hildenberger’s role with the Twins this year, Tom Froemming mentioned how many Comeback Player of the Year Award candidates the Twins have for 2019. One of them is Jorge Polanco, who appears to be a bit under the radar in a lot of Twins fans discussions. But I think he is bound to surprise a lot of people that may have been taking him for granted.

    Last year’s 80-game suspension for testing positive for Stanozolol might have done a number on Polanco’s reputation in the eyes of many Twins fans. It wouldn’t be crazy to assume the same for part of the club ownership and front office. It’s not crazy to imagine he might be one of the main trade pieces Minnesota has, but that might also be true for a lot of guys, such as Max Kepler, Eddie Rosario, Byron Buxton and Miguel Sanó.

    Perhaps not giving “Chulo” a chance to prove he belongs in the Twin Cities could be too hasty. Even playing only a half season last year – by the way, he played 77 out of 82 possible games – Polanco managed to post some of the team’s best rate-based numbers. He slashed .288/.345/.427, which would have tied Rosario for best batting average, ranked third in on-base percentage and fourth in slugging.

    Back in 2017, Polanco had a terrible year for most of the season, but then he rose after the trade deadline and had an outstanding second half. He slashed .293/.359/.511 in his final 63 games of that year, including an astonishing .373/.413/.686 in 27 August games, with 10 of his 13 total home runs coming after Aug. 1. He also got on base twice in the Twins' only postseason game since 2010.

    When putting together Polanco’s numbers since Aug. 1, 2017, you find out that he has been one of Minnesota’s best bats. In 567 PA since then (132 games) he slashed .299/.358/.478, with 16 home runs, 84 RBIs and a 125 wRC+. Granted, his defense is still below average and his 7.8% BB% and 16.6% K% aren’t great either, but for comparison's sake, those last numbers are better than Rosie’s (5.1% BB%, 17.6 K%).

    Polanco is all but a lock to start at shortstop as of now. Ehire Adrianza and Ronald Torreyes are the only other two shortstops on the roster. Despite his somewhat weak defense, which did improve a bit with his UZR going from -4.7 to -3.9 over the last two years, Polanco still appears to be a good investment, especially when you notice he’s only 25. There’s a lot of room for improvement. Above all, there’s no one on this team who seems better qualified for a leadoff spot in the lineup. He’s a perfect fit.

    But What Could Stand in Polanco's Way?

    We all know Polanco is also a great asset, but with the shortstop position looking very healthy down on the farm (MLB ranked Royce Lewis as the second best shortstop prospect in the game), it’s hard to see Polanco staying in a Twins uniform for the remainder of his career... at least as a shortstop. Rocco Baldelli could well try to test Polanco as a second baseman, whenever Jonathan Schoop is hurt or resting, but that hasn’t been done by Paul Molitor since he came up to the majors.

    Not only are there long term alternatives at shortstop, such as Lewis and Wander Javier, a couple of other factors might affect his presence this year. For starters, one of the organization’s top prospects, Nick Gordon, could get a shot at the big leagues during this year. After thriving through all the minor league levels, Gordon had an uncharacteristic bad stint right after being promoted to Triple-A, slashing .212/.262/.283 in 99 games with the Red Wings. But he is using that as motivation.

    “I definitely feel like even with the struggles that I had, I learned a lot in Triple-A and it humbled me down to, ‘It’s about every game, it’s about every pitch, it’s about every play,'” Gordon said during an MLB Rookie Career Development Program, as posted by Twins beat writer By Do-Hyoung Park. “Ever since the season ended, there’s been that hunger and that drive. It feels like I have something to prove.”

    Similar to Polanco, Gordon too can play both shortstop and second base, but chances are when he is promoted, he might take at-bats away from Polanco more than Schoop. But that also depends on how each player performs.

    Another possibility, although there is only a remote chance of this happening, is that the Twins replace Polanco with an outside addition. ESPN has speculated that Minnesota could be one of the mystery teams in on Manny Machado.

    Having Machado with the Twins would be incredible, but not a simple fit. Who’s the odd man out for him to be in the team? Play him at third base, move Sanó to first and let go of Cron or Austin? Play him at shortstop, bench Polanco and cut Adrianza or Torreyes? There’s a lot of thinking involved. But again, not many people believe those Machado rumors.

    What do you think? Leave a comment and let us know.


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    Featured Comments

     

     

    The Machado/Harper rumors are just BS, planted by their agents to push other teams into paying more, and quicker. Twins probably put a call in, just to test the waters, now they are "the big mystery team". Sorry, not buying it. Twins need to give Gordon a chance. Very exciting player. Would you take Dee Gordon on your team? Of course you would. Nick Gordon is a splitting image. Give him the shot.

     

    The Twins are rumored to be in the loop on these things every year but nothing has ever transpired from it. We don't need to spend any time thinking about this. If it happens, great, we can all be shocked at that time.

    I have been waiting for someone to do a poll as to how many home runs the Twins will hit this year. Or maybe an over/under poll.

     

    Personally, I put the number of home runs somewhere between 225 and 240.

    That’s 60-80 more than last year. Schoop probably makes up Dozier’s. Cron, Sano and Nelson would have to combine for 100-120 to hit that number.

    I have two wonders about Polanco before being convinced he is a top of the batting order hitter.

     

    I wonder if PEDs were a factor in his huge spike in power (as shown by ISO) the second half of 2017.

     

    I wonder if his relatively high BABIP in 2018 gave a more favorable perception of his performance than his true skill level.

     

    One thing that has been very consistent is a DRC+ that is 3%-7% below league average.

     

    He is young. He should improve. I just wonder about the baseline where that improvement starts.

    Polanco is a good choice for the top of the order because he puts the bat on the ball consistently. He swung and missed about 10% of the time last year. Among Twins with more than 100 PA, that put him behind Mauer and Logan Forsythe. And that mark is consistent with his career to date. In an era of hitters that swing and miss a lot, Polanco is a contact type hitter.

    Polanco is a good choice for the top of the order because he puts the bat on the ball consistently. He swung and missed about 10% of the time last year. Among Twins with more than 100 PA, that put him behind Mauer and Logan Forsythe. And that mark is consistent with his career to date. In an era of hitters that swing and miss a lot, Polanco is a contact type hitter.

    I really liked him hitting in the 3 spot where Molitor had him. But with the way the team is constructed currently, he sure seems the natural choice for leadoff.

     

    That’s 60-80 more than last year. Schoop probably makes up Dozier’s. Cron, Sano and Nelson would have to combine for 100-120 to hit that number.

    Yup.  But shouldn't we expect 100 home runs from Sano, Cruz and Cron?  I will be disappointed if they don't hit that many.

    Yup. But shouldn't we expect 100 home runs from Sano, Cruz and Cron? I will be disappointed if they don't hit that many.

    They'd have to average 34 HR's each to surpass 100 HR's combined. Only 8 players in the AL hit that many last year. So no, I don't expect anything close to that. 61 is their combined career average. I'll hope for some improvement, but a 70% increase across the board seems highly unlikely.

    They'd have to average 34 HR's each to surpass 100 HR's combined. Only 8 players in the AL hit that many last year. So no, I don't expect anything close to that. 61 is their combined career average. I'll hope for some improvement, but a 70% increase across the board seems highly unlikely.

    Steamer projects 77 homeruns for the trio. The Bat projects 92.

     

    Only 8 players hit 34 dingers last year but Cruz was one of them and Cron was in striking distance with 30. Big if, but Sano has 30 homer power if he can stay healthy.

     

    100 homers isn’t impossible

    Edited by Sconnie

    Steamer projects 77 homeruns for the trio. The Bat projects 92.

     

    Only 8 players hit 34 dingers last year but Cruz was one of them and Cron was in striking distance with 30. Big if, but Sano has 30 homer power if he can stay healthy.

     

    100 homers isn’t impossible

    Not impossible, no.

    But I was responding to the idea that it is expected.

    It's always fun this time of the year to imagine everyone on our favorite team having a career year, but that's not very likely.

    They'd have to average 34 HR's each to surpass 100 HR's combined. Only 8 players in the AL hit that many last year. So no, I don't expect anything close to that. 61 is their combined career average. I'll hope for some improvement, but a 70% increase across the board seems highly unlikely.

    Quoting myself because it's too late to edit. These career averages are wrong, I accidentally used Schoop instead of Cruz.

     

    They'd have to average 34 HR's each to surpass 100 HR's combined. Only 8 players in the AL hit that many last year. So no, I don't expect anything close to that. 61 is their combined career average. I'll hope for some improvement, but a 70% increase across the board seems highly unlikely.

    If everyone hits the number of home runs management is paying for, they easily are in the 225-240 range.

     

    Catchers (Garver/Castro)-15, Cruz-35, Cron-25, Schoop-25, Polanco-15, Sano-40, Rosario-25, Buxton-15, and Kepler-25.   That's 220.  Add 15 from the bench (mostly Cave) and you are at 235.  Are all these career years, a few yes...most good years but not career.  

     

    Granted, this puts each player on the team hitting what we should expect from them.  But it also doesn't include someone coming up and doing what Cave/Austin did last year if one of the above is injured or doesn't perform.  Now if Sano doesn't play like he has been expected to for several years, then it is less likely to get to 225+...or impossible. 

     

    But if Sano doesn't have a good year, we are all gonna be talking about something else come summer anyway.  But it is almost the first of February, isn't now when we are supposed to be positive about the coming season?

    Edited by rdehring

    Polanco has always been able to hit, and likely will continue to do so. But he has never been, is not, nor ever will be a SS around whom you could build an infield if you intend to be a competitive baseball team. In a normal environment, those types of SS's end up at second base. I hope that's what happens with Polanco, since that also means we have improved the quality at the SS position. A win win. It's issues like this that allow me a little extra patience with the FO. Polanco is just one of many players on this team that need to move from prospect to player. Until that happens, adding a reliever and say, and OBP guy, isn't going to make us a truly competitive baseball team. But it could make us the second WC entry! Fodder for the Yankees or Red Sox. :(




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